Apparently the Chinese regulators have announced:
- setting targets for locally produced formula – 60% of consumption within 3 years,
- the introduction of stricter controls on imports in relation to food safety,
- announced a policy to encourage investment in overseas businesses, and
- flagged stricter controls of e-commerce.
Item 1 may limit the potential market share of A2M, however, it seems aspirational, more than anything else.
Item 2 is a potential lever should trade wars widen, and could be used as a trade barrier. This risk has always been there.
Item 3: Could be a positive, but companies like A2M may have to accept partial Chinese ownership to guarantee market access.
Item 4: Daigou channel may be blocked. a Big risk. But the good news is this will become apparent through rising stocks on supermarket shelves.
At this stage, I can't see a reason to act on this news, but it is important to monitor those infant formula shelves for stock levels. Full supermarket shelves is a leading indicator of a blocked Daigou channel.