Company Report
Last edited 6 years ago
PerformanceCommunity EngagementCommunity Endorsement
ranked
#21
Performance (79m)
18.3% pa
Followed by
850
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#Risks
stale
Added 6 years ago

Apparently the Chinese regulators have announced:

  1. setting targets for locally produced formula – 60% of consumption within 3 years,
  2. the introduction of stricter controls on imports in relation to food safety,
  3. announced a policy to encourage investment in overseas businesses, and
  4. flagged stricter controls of e-commerce.

Item 1 may limit the potential market share of A2M, however, it seems aspirational, more than anything else.

Item 2 is a potential lever should trade wars widen, and could be used as a trade barrier. This risk has always been there.

Item 3: Could be a positive, but companies like A2M may have to accept partial Chinese ownership to guarantee market access.

Item 4: Daigou channel may be blocked. a Big risk.  But the good news is this will become apparent through rising stocks on supermarket shelves.    

At this stage, I can't see a reason to act on this news, but it is important to monitor those infant formula shelves for stock levels.   Full supermarket shelves is a leading indicator of a blocked Daigou channel. 

#Bull Case
stale
Last edited 6 years ago

Short term - Chemist shelves are out of stock of A2M formula on the eve of singles day in China.   This bodes well for the upcoming results.   

Long term - USA and UK markets are a huge opportunitiy, with wellness products such as A2 only milk in high demand and highly valued - great long term runway.  This will reduce the regulatory risk associated with China trade.