Disclosure-I have a small holding, have been looking to add more.

The last result displays how much A2 relied on the retail daigou channel. this has been almost wiped out and IMO the big question going forward is will this channel re-establish itself and will it be as relevant.

BULL POINTS 

Smaller biz's like US and Aust Liquid milk doing ok. Brand still strong in China in IMF. Mgt trying to clean up inventory situation, took a $23m provision (enough?). Progress in MBS was good, although i consider this a good biz not a great biz. Corporate daigou seeing some green shots?

BEAR POINTS

Business momentum still negative, downgrading. Sales poor which is understandable given the situation but hard to accept mgt's initial bullish read. Hard to see high profitable growth without retail daigou, ie channel mix is deteriorating, mainly because retail daigou was so high. that is good but not great. the recent acquisition of MVM looks overly optimistic given the lower growth, hard to see it making sense in next several years. CBEC channel is problematic, pricing poor and inventory slooshing around. same for everyone. Competition has become tougher but with A2 at 2-3% share still room to grow.

WHERE TO FROM HERE

I think it is now obvious that the retail daigou channel made A2 a great biz and without it A2 is only a good biz. will this channel come back? probably needs intl borders reopened, which is not soon. will it still be as efficient and profitable?..dont know ..maybe. I think A2 is a good biz but I would like to buy it without paying for the retail daigou return. so that becomes the big potential upside. My best guess of this is good risk adjusted buying $7.50-8.

this is only an opinion not advice. DYOR