Future Group entertains IPO after strong quarter

Behind the AFR paywall.

Got to hand it to Australian Ethical

They were totally spot on with Strawman favourite Cogstate and cut before the trading halt.

Maybe they got freaked out by the ratings on that career review website? Hard to say as some said most of the reviews are fake.

Starting to win my respect again

Not sure what why the spike in share price given AEF has averaged down on a few dubious holdings recently

Was thinking about going back in at 4.50 but still looks too expensive given the quality of their holdings such as nxl and eml

Even though this article relates to Lend Lease's development in the Mt Gilead Koala Habitat, I thought better to post under Australian Ethical as their investment in Lend Lease doesn't align with their core values in standing up for environmental issues (April 2022).

https://www.smh.com.au/environment/conservation/sydney-region-s-last-healthy-koala-population-threatened-by-development-20220413-p5ad4w.html

To balance the view, here is a article from their website from February 2022 stating their position.

https://www.australianethical.com.au/blog/our-position-on-lendlease-development-figtree-hill-and-and-mt-gilead/

From the latest SMH article, it doesn't look like Lend lease is adhering to the conditions but it doesn't look like AEF has pulled the plug yet on their investment with Lend Lease.

Happy to stand corrected.

2 Announcements today from AEF

AEF and Christian Super merger

AEF and Christian super have signed a Successor Fund Transfer which will see Christian Super members be transferred to AEF later this year or early 2023.

This will bring in $1.96b of FUM into AEF

Full announcement here

FUM and Earnings Guidance Update

AEF recorded $102m of FUM inflows for the quarter bringing net inflows for FY22 to $943m. Total FUM at June 30 was $6.2b (up 2% since June 2021).

Performance fees of $0.4m for their "Emerging Companies Fund" were collected given its outperformance against the benchmark which will add $0.2m to UPAT, bringing earnings guidance range to between $10m-10.4m (FY21 UPAT was $11.1m).

There was no mention of performance fees for their "High Conviction Fund" so I'm assuming they did not beat the benchmark for this fund.

Full announcement here

My Takeaway:

The transfer of Christian Super members will bring in substantial FUM inflows which will benefit AEF going forward. However their performance on their funds was disappointing leading to a decrease in profit YOY.

Will update my valuation accordingly.

AEF share price has been holding up quite well despite some negative press. Possible reasons:

• Possible windfall profit from the HRL takeover by ALS labs.
• Upcoming takeover of Christian Super's funds under management of 2 billion

Some doubts:

• Given the falls in the market, is the mark to market value of Christian Super funds really 2 billion? Anyone buying AEF here thinking it is worth 2 billion now when it might be slightly less could be too optimistic.
• AEF is sub holder of EML payments which had gone down 20%+ after the sudden departure of the CEO. While a big drop, the holding is only $15.9m (from $19m) and is small versus the $6billion AUM. So maybe the market here is giving this a pass. But it does reflect poorly on their decision-making.
• AEF holds quite a bit of Genworth Mortgage insurance ($51m). With house prices going down, Genworth price may follow.

Quarterly FUM update

Despite net inflows of about 200m, Funds Under Management fell by 1.6% due to market volatility to 6.86 billion.

https://www.australianethical.com.au/globalassets/pdf-files/asx-announcement/2022/20220421-aef-fum--flows-q3-fy22.pdf

As I mentioned in the last straw, this was expected due to the overweight exposure to growth sectors especially tech, medical and pharma while being short on value and commodities (apologies but just couldn't resist)

Bit disappointed but still holding for now.