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#ASX Announcements
Added 5 months ago

Steady double digit growth of 34% for funds under management from AEF recently. Seems the super guarantee contributions is underpinning growth and one reason why I got back in again. Maybe the big surprise is flows from instos as previously it was the opposite.

4900683ec975eae1d09ef424b6c4590501e99e.png

But a lofty retrospective PE ratio of 50 and no forward guidance in this announcement after recent increase in the share price

[held]

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#Bear Case
stale
Added 9 months ago

Although the numbers from the update look good, it is interesting that AEF has not provided any guidance for the next reporting period. The call transcript did not provide much information other than they see Superannuation Guarantee contributions contributing more to revenue growth.

All in all, no hard numbers to figure out the future valuation of the share price.

Also not surprised that the share price fell given the recent falls in the markets.

[held]

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#Bear Case
stale
Added 9 months ago

Shorts were increasing leading up to the results announcement

23bfdcb3a1c6470da9805d95321e75712cfd23.png

This leads me to believe that this 20% pop yesterday is probably short covering.

I would say that their stock picking in small caps has been not so good with PRO and M7T as examples. So achieving this double-digit growth is surprising although growth for this half is less than PCP

Will be interesting to see if this drops in the next few days.

[held]

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#Industry/competitors
stale
Added 9 months ago

AEF up around 15% today

Something in the AFR about them almost acquiring future super but don't have access to full article

Also released their results

Held


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#Business Model/Strategy
stale
Added one year ago

Future Group entertains IPO after strong quarter


Behind the AFR paywall.


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Valuation of $3.05
stale
Added 3 years ago

Update 15/06/2023

Haven't updated my valuation for a while but today's update seems to be positive for their overall growth trajectory.

UPAT guidance range of $11.3m-11.8m before performance fees. NPAT will be affected by integration costs and other one off revaluation costs and so I think overall NPAT after performance fees may end up being around $11.5m (I think they will update the market again next month after they calculate performance fees for FY23).

Using a PE of 30x as per below, gives a valuation of $3.05

Update 14/07/2022

AEF updated their NPAT guidance to $10m-$10.2m following calculation of performance fees.

Taking the mid range NPAT guidance of $10.1m and applying a PE of 30 gives a valuation of $2.69.

I am giving them the benefit of doubt that they will be able to grow their NPAT again in the coming years especially with the influx of FUM from the Christian Super merger.

Disc: Not held.

Update 16/06/2022

More detail given in this Straw

If UPAT/NPAT is likely to be flat year on year then perhaps a PE of 40 may be a bit flattering. Net inflows are still increasing and if the general market sentiment turns positive then you could see profit increasing again in future years. However, as I stated in my straw, there may need to be stark outperformance in future years for them to start collecting performance fees again.

Will just give them a PE of 30 for now and wait for more news in the future.

Disc: Not held.

Original Valuation

AEF did about $11m in NPAT in FY21 and I'm going to assume they will do around $12m for FY22. Growth is slightly slowed due to general market conditions which have impacted their FUM growth.

FY22 earnings will also be interesting as their performance fees are collected on June 30 so if their funds don't meet expected benchmarks then this could impact the amount of fees they will be able to collect and thus reduce NPAT. At the present stage no guidance for FY earnings have been given.

So assuming $12m NPAT for FY22 and giving them a PE of 40, it gives a valuation of $4.27.

I see this as a good entry price for a company which should have good structural tailwinds once market conditions become more favourable.


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#Bull Case
stale
Added 3 years ago

Not sure what why the spike in share price given AEF has averaged down on a few dubious holdings recently

Was thinking about going back in at 4.50 but still looks too expensive given the quality of their holdings such as nxl and eml

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#Lend Lease and Koalas
stale
Added 3 years ago

Even though this article relates to Lend Lease's development in the Mt Gilead Koala Habitat, I thought better to post under Australian Ethical as their investment in Lend Lease doesn't align with their core values in standing up for environmental issues (April 2022).

https://www.smh.com.au/environment/conservation/sydney-region-s-last-healthy-koala-population-threatened-by-development-20220413-p5ad4w.html

To balance the view, here is a article from their website from February 2022 stating their position.

https://www.australianethical.com.au/blog/our-position-on-lendlease-development-figtree-hill-and-and-mt-gilead/

From the latest SMH article, it doesn't look like Lend lease is adhering to the conditions but it doesn't look like AEF has pulled the plug yet on their investment with Lend Lease.

Happy to stand corrected.

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Valuation of $4.00
stale
Added 3 years ago

Wealth and superannuation manager specialising in companies that are socially responsible and provide benefit to the environment while reducing climate change. AUM and profits have also grown proving that popularity in ethical investing is only going to increase.

Update

June 2022: Reducing the valuation from $7 to $4. After their massive averaging down on EML Payments, Mach 7, Lend Lease and Nuix, AEF no longer aligns with my philosophy in holding well managed companies so no longer hold. Still a bit of FOMO with price at $5.50 so there will be people who disagree and see the PE of 50 good value despite being out of the money in NXL and EML. But if it goes down $4 I may be interested.

Sept 2020: As I've discovered recently, one major risk holding AEF is government policy changes in super. Any adverse change such as early withdrawal due to Covid-19 pandemics will hurt the share price. Furthermore IOOF exited their holding in late July.

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#Risks
stale
Added 3 years ago

AEF share price has been holding up quite well despite some negative press. Possible reasons:

  • Possible windfall profit from the HRL takeover by ALS labs.
  • Upcoming takeover of Christian Super's funds under management of 2 billion


Some doubts:

  • Given the falls in the market, is the mark to market value of Christian Super funds really 2 billion? Anyone buying AEF here thinking it is worth 2 billion now when it might be slightly less could be too optimistic.
  • AEF is sub holder of EML payments which had gone down 20%+ after the sudden departure of the CEO. While a big drop, the holding is only $15.9m (from $19m) and is small versus the $6billion AUM. So maybe the market here is giving this a pass. But it does reflect poorly on their decision-making.
  • AEF holds quite a bit of Genworth Mortgage insurance ($51m). With house prices going down, Genworth price may follow.



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