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At a quick glance, Aerometrex’s announcement from today looks pretty good.
How much do you have to pay for this? A pretty damn cheap valuation it appears.
At close today the market cap is $24.70M. Remove the $10M in cash they’re telling us they have and you’re left with an EV of $14.7M. They’re performance tends to be skewed to the second half from larger government contracts, but even if it weren’t, that means an EV / Revenue multiple of ~0.6. Sounds too cheap.
There’s a few problems though:
On the other hand, a business with an EV / Revenue multiple of ~0.6 doesn’t need to get everything right to start moving, and maybe this is only the beginning to the new MD getting down to work.
I know other members know this one well, I’m keen to hear your perspectives community!
Aerometrex signs significant LiDAR contract to support Great Barrier Reef.
SP has suffered from a lack of significant growth. I feel that LiDAR is their niche and this contract supports that thesis with environmental applications being a potential growth area.
Aerometrex has signed a material LiDAR contract for approximately $1.0 million (GST exclusive) with the Queensland Government The work is expected to be completed by June 2024.
The project requires high density LiDAR data which will be used to create high fidelity regional terrain models. The LiDAR survey will support the Australian and Queensland Governments in their ongoing initiative of mapping key areas of the Great Barrier Reef catchments.
Aerometrex’s Managing Director, Steve Masters said:
“This is an exciting project that further builds on the work undertaken by Aerometrex through its LiDAR product line and follows several material contract wins this year in support of environmental initiatives.
This agreement aligns with Aerometrex’s key strategic initiatives to support critical sustainability and environmental management projects and the positive impact that this can have on our community, adding to past work in areas such as bushfire fuel load management, surface water management, erosion modelling, informed agriculture, and more.
I am a little surprised Mr Market didn't go harder than a 10% drop based on some pretty average results. How a company can keep a straight face and use a metric like EBITDA for an operation that is so reliant on P,P&E is beyond me (they literally don't have a product without the planes) but they tried. I am guessing they wouldn't hire the person who attempted to write; Flat revenue (only saved by government data set sale at the death), costs escalation outstripping any pricing power, Net Loss of $4.2m which is 7x worse than the prior year.
I don't own but have previously, think i might be on the sidelines for a little longer
Nice data set sale for AMX which just scrapes in this FY. SP has moved off lows and this should help maintain the momentum.
Aerometrex Announces Material Off-The-Shelf Data Sale $1.69 million sale to Australian Government Agency with a delivery date of 26 June 2023. As the transaction is an off-the-shelf sale of datasets, the revenue will be recognised on delivery
CEO Mr Steve Masters said: “We are delighted to have again been awarded a material sale of data to the Australian Federal Government. This sale continues to reinforce the company’s strategy to focus on creating high quality datasets where the intellectual property ownership belongs to Aerometrex that can be re-sold to all customers”.
2 today. Metromap ARR has flatlined this quarter ~7M although still up YOY and a record ARR partner program contract win with Landchecker. SP has been hammered after a pump to 60c don’t think these announcements are going to turn it around but still positive.
MetroMap annual recurring revenue (ARR) was $7.195 million at 31 March 2023, up 13% YoY (March 2022: $6.345 million), down 2% QoQ
Aerometrex signs multi-million dollar MetroMap agreement with Landchecker (Landchecker was founded in 2015 and is owned by RACV, PEXA and the founders. Landchecker provides an all-in-one source of property information to over 90,000 property professionals and is used by Developers, Legal Practitioners, Valuers, Real Estate Agents, Architects, Town Planners and property consumers Australia wide.)
• Minimum payments to Aerometrex of $2.65 million over the 38 month contract term
• Upside revenue opportunities through additional licence sales
This is the largest MetroMap partner program agreement in Aerometrex’s history and will make a strong contribution to MetroMap’s Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) stream over the contract term.” (3 years)
The key terms include:
1. Landchecker will pay to Aerometrex a minimum annual payment fee of $0.8 million for the fixed number of licences.
2. Landchecker can purchase additional licences above the fixed amount at an agreed price per licence, thereby enabling additional revenue opportunities for Aerometrex and Landchecker over the contract term.
3. The number of additional licences that Landchecker can purchase from Aerometrex above the fixed licence quantity is uncapped.
4. All licence payments are subject to annual fixed indexation and will be invoiced monthly.
Held in RL
Half year results for FY23
Revenue overall is down. Project photomapping revenue ceased and merged into Metromap. Growth in Metromap did not outpace the loss in revenue (2.2m v 800K).
LIDAR revenue got impacted by aviation and weather factors (sounds a bit similar to Elders?)
Operational cashflow increased but also payments for intangibles increased from previous period which I believe is due to all their work upgrading their sensors. Hoping this is a one-off increase
Finally overall expenses increased. Guess this is due to the US work the company commenced in the year (travel/employee expense) and the new sensors being rolled out (D&A).
My assumption is the market wasn't too happy due to the drop in revenue vs the increased expenses. Probably need to wait till next period to see if any of the increased spending is reaping rewards.
[held]
Captial Raise History
· December 2019 Raised $25m at it’s IPO
Acquisition
· April 2020 $1.5m Spookfish – Australian Aerial Imagery company from US company EagleView https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200424/pdf/44h72kgbmxv3b1.pdf
Contract Wins/ Sale Annoucements (not include MetroMap updates)
· January 2023 Australian Federal Government Agency $1.88m purchase order – largest LiDAR contract win. https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20230113/pdf/45km94ss9c9zwz.pdf
· July 2022 Rio Tinto $0.85m to be undertaken in the Pilbara region. Work is a combination of ortho-photographic and LiDAR imagery capture. ttps://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20220720/pdf/45c0p7cdmmyq7k.pdf
· June 2022 Australian Federal Government Agency $2.5m purchase order for the transaction for an off-the-shelf sale of datasets. https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20220624/pdf/45b702gy1rjsfj.pdf
· October 2021 Terrestrial Software A$250K brought a data licence to Aerometrex’s very high resolution 3D model of San Francisco. https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20211006/pdf/451bry2nr5050f.pdf
· March 2021 Queensland Government spatial Imagery program awards 4 major projects include South East Queensland, Galilee Basin East, North Queensland, Scenic Rim Towns. https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20210322/pdf/44tw94tzcsvx10.pdf
· October 2020 Suncorp and PSMA contribute $1.01m annualised recurring revenue (ARR) https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20201008/pdf/44nh72z61n0f04.pdf
· March 2020 Queensland Government aerial imagery contracts – has won 5 projects of the Queensland Government Spatial Imagery Subscription Program, managed by the department of Natural Resources, Mines and Energy, totally $1.0 million + GST https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200313/pdf/44g0dwx4p1b1r5.pdf
Inside Ownership
Market cap $49.2m at $0.52 *Current closing price today is $0.69
Inside Ownership Ordinary Shares % AMX Issued Net Value at $0.52
Mark Lindh (Chair) 373,958 0.39% $194.5K
Peter Foster (Director) 50,000 0.05% $26K
Matthew White (Director) 12,177,927 12.87% $6.33m
CEO Steve Masters 178,572 0.19% $92.9K
COO David Bryne 8,583,850 9.07% $4.46m
CFO Chris Mahar 97,051 0.10% $50K
Total Current Management 21,461,358 22.69% $11.16m
Ex CEO
Mark Deuter 11,400,865 12.05% $5.93m
Ex Chief Pilot
Scott Tomlinson 7,300,000 7.72% $3.8m
Ex Chief People Officer
Beata Serafin 6,000,000 6.34% $3.12m
Total 46,162,223 48.80% $24m
On Market Management Buying
Steven Masters
28 Sep 2022 178,572 shares at $0.42 ($75,000.24)
Mark Lindh
28 Sep 2022 47,620 shares at $0.42 ($20,000.40)
Aerometrics has announced their largest LiDAR contract to date.
They have been awarded a significant contract of work with an Australian Federal Government Agency.
The value of the contract is $1.88M and comprises a number of areas of interest.
The market seems to like it with a strong bounce in the share price.
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20230113/pdf/45km94ss9c9zwz.pdf
Following @Wini’s review of the AGM and pointing out the potential for the 3D datasets AMX announced sale of selected USA high-resolution 3D models to a leading consumer technology company. However despite being the single largest sale the revenue was deemed immaterial. These off the shelf datasets can be sold many times so hopefully this leads to further revenue down the track.
Represents the single largest sale to date from Aerometrex’s USA off-the-shelf 3D model catalogue.
Aerometrex’s 3D models in Australasia and the USA are being used widely in industries as diverse as urban planning, civil engineering, computer gaming, asset management, mining and coastal erosion. The 3D content can be consumed and displayed in web browser applications, geospatial software, virtual reality systems and gaming engines. Aerometrex strongly believes that high-quality, high-resolution, accurate 3D data will become the dominant data type in mapping and planning activities in the short- to medium-term, and will play an increasing role in communication, visualisation and measurement.
AMX did $5.1m EBITDA in FY22, below my $6m forecast. However the larger development since then was NEA getting acquired on 7x ARR or 40x FY21 EBITDA (FY22 had some one-offs).
Admittedly NEA has much more scale and no project based revenue, but even 15x FY22 EBITDA would be roughly 80c. Given the focus on optimisation I suspect EBITDA will grow in FY23 but the market is waiting for execution on that front.
Seek notification just served this up. It seems Aerometrex is hiring more pilots.
What's a fair revenue multiple?
One way to estimate that is to back calculate it from an assumed EV/EBITDA multiple and an assumed EBITDA margin. If we assume 8x EV/EBITDA is fair and take an EBITDA margin of 10% (which is roughly double the current normalised numbers: i.e. $0.7m for H1FY22), one arrives at a fair revenue multiple of 0.8x (8 x 0.1).
Those are simply some back-of-the-envelope numbers to get a 40,000-foot view of where we are right now relative to what is fair. Of course, one might argue that the US business is loss-making and that if AMX can get that side of the business under control the EBITDA margin may end up much higher, but for the moment it is circa 6% on a normalised basis ($0.7 x 2 / 22) across the business and so a 10% EBITDA margin seems fair.
My other reservation here is that the market size is very small being only $80m for MetroMap and only $50m for LiDAR. However, the market size for 3D is much higher. If we combine the $80m and $50m, we get to a $130m market size. Given AMX has about 15% share versus NEA at 85% share, that suggests a fair value of around ~$19.5m. But, again, that assumes the current status quo remains constant.
AMX's opportunity is to steal share off its much larger competitor, Nearmap.
AMX reminding us Metromap is still growing albeit a bit slower this quarter.
MetroMap annual recurring revenue (ARR) grew to $6.35 million at 31 March 2022, up 49% YoY (Q3 FY21: $4.26 million) and up 5.5% QoQ.
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20220422/pdf/45870s5fjlktlz.pdf
Not really sure why Aerometrex released an Investor Presentation today, maybe they just wanted to remind everyone that Nearmap weren't the only game in town.
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20220329/pdf/457g0fskc0c15n.pdf
I too, have held NEA since May 2014 and enjoyed todays announcement though they had already guided in December 2021 that Group ACV would come in between $150M and $160M.
While todays share price jump is welcome it is a far cry from the $4 plus I trimmed it at in June 2019 - if only they all worked out that well.
I think they both have their strengths and I'm hopeful AMX will give me some exposure to the Metaverse via their 3D offering.
I still hold a 1.5% holding in NEA along with a 1% position in AMX.
Really enjoyed reading the well-balanced Straws here from Wini et. al.
From my limited understanding, there are a lot of shares now in the hands of employees who have resigned since the escrow release.
This includes Serafin, Tomlinson and Deuter who have all left the company. In addition, Dunow has ceased being a KMP.
After many loyal years to the company, it appears that they are cashing in, perhaps for lifestyle reasons.
Unfortunately, this has put enormous pressure on the share price, and it is likely to continue for a while yet, with Morgans remaining the main seller (broker data below).
The other main risk that I can see is that the market size is not significant, in Australia at least, with a domestic TAM of circa $130m.
Once selling pressure eases, it looks primed for a rebound, assuming the fundamentals remain intact but the risk of further selling remains.
Another way to value this business might be with an ARR multiple; AMX is currently trading on around 10x ARR ($6m ARR), although this doesn't reflect the sizeable non-recurring revenue base that has been established.
Remains on the watchlist for me for the moment.
Would love to get perspectives from anyone who has been following the shareholder registry evolve over the last 6 months as to when selling pressure might be likely to ease.
MetroMap and US Operations deliver strong revenue growth.
Aerometrex Limited (ASX: AMX) today announced its results for the half year ended 31 December 2021 (1H22) delivering strong revenue growth in its key service lines of MetroMap, LiDAR and its 3D operations in the US.
Commenting on the half year results, Aerometrex Acting CEO Mr David Byrne said:
“We are pleased with the continued growth of MetroMap reflected in the increase in statutory revenue which was up 80.4% on the same time last year to $2.72M and the growth in the annual recurring revenue which was up 81.4% year on year to $6.01M.
The strategy of focusing on the MetroMap subscription business sees this revenue stream now contribute 24.0% of the group revenue, up from 17.6% for the same period last year.
We are also extremely pleased with the contribution that the US operations have made in this half year with revenue contribution of $620k, up from zero in the prior corresponding period.
While the revenue to date is still relatively small, we have made significant strides in growing the awareness and potential of our world leading 3D business within the US.
The revenue was derived from a combination of project and off-the-shelf data sales including the delivery of the San Francisco data models to Google.
We ended the half with $12.27M in cash with undrawn debt facilities available to fund growth initiatives and momentum for the second half.”
AMX strategy to convert MetropMap to subscription based appears to be progressing well while their US 3D offering is showing potential.
Not held on SM but held in RL
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20220214/pdf/455y9cjj8xhrgh.pdf
I see two big risks to the AMX investment thesis. The first is a clear one; MetroMap is going head to head with a massive incumbent competitor in Nearmap who is much larger and well capitalised. There are some signs AMX is making headway and it may be in their favour that NEA is focusing so hard on US expansion which may allow MetroMap to poach unsatisfied clients.
The second risk is that AMX has committed to ending their project based revenue. This is not an insignificant amount and means AMX is about to go through the same challenges many software business who have pivoted to ARR have found. Short term financial performance gets messed up as reported revenue takes a hit.
Management have stated there is $3.2m to complete largely in 1H22:
That amount is roughly in line with previous half years so numbers in the coming report may not be impacted. For 2H22 and beyond, management are expecting $1-3m of that revenue to migrate to MetroMap:
If that number is at the lower end it leaves them with a big revenue hole to fill. At the higher end project work would largely be replaced with higher margin recurring revenue which would be a great outcome. Watching MetroMap ARR over the next couple of updates will be crucial as AMX may have to win their project based clients to MetroMap vs Nearmap.
AMX breaks their operating business into three segments; MetroMap, LiDAR and 3D. MetroMap is a subscription service for AMX's database of 2D aerial imaging, LiDAR uses laser technology to scan for distance and density and 3D meshes images to create a digital model of a 3D space. AMX has hinted at bringing their LiDAR and 3D offerings into the MetroMap subscription but for now they are still project based. Management provides market share on each segment in their presentations:
With a 6% market share of the Australian subscription aerial imagery market, AMX has a long way to catch the incumbent Nearmap who has over 90% market share. That said, AMX management is confident they have a better offering than NEA and importantly competing strongly on value with a fixed subscription amount compared to NEA who charges based on usage. See my Industry/competitors straw for my take on AMX competing with NEA.
AMX are more established in LiDAR with 18% market share and have invested further in space with a fourth laser sensor and upgrading the remaining three.
Despite being conservative with MetroMap and LiDAR TAM's, management have an "open-ended" TAM for 3D largely because the space is growing so quickly. Like other technologies, as the quality of the product improves it is opening up further use cases that were previously not possible. It represents the blue sky in the AMX investment thesis and helping it is the fact AMX has leading edge tech in the space. Engineering giant WSP was an early client of AMX's 3D data and have continually scaled up as AMX capture more cities and improve their offerings:
Beyond "traditional" use cases in surveying and mapping, AMX is also selling their 3D datasets to metaverse customers who are looking to mirror the real world in a digital setting. They sold their San Francisco model to the Lunaverse project for $250k and have partnered with the Omniscape project to map various US cities to eventually be used in their metaverse. Importantly, AMX is project agnostic, they continue to own the 3D dataset and licence it to whichever metaverse projects would like to use it.
With the pivot from project based revenue to the MetroMap subscription model, AMX has put themselves squarely across the ring from the 800 pound gorilla in the industry Nearmap. The initial growth was strong, but it was always difficult to tell how much was eating into NEA's market share and how much was a transfer of AMX's own project revenue to the subscription model. The latest update in October showed a slowdown in the September quarter which management attributed to some deferred renewals of subscriptions that management expect to be taken up in the December quarter:
I will be keen to see the growth of MetroMap in the upcoming half year results to see if AMX was able to re-accelerate growth from a slow September quarter.
Trying to look ahead, Macquarie recently downgraded NEA primarily due to increased competition from AMX and website traffic does show MetroMap having a very strong January. While we will need to wait for results to get a clearer picture, I do rate Macquarie's channel check research, they were well ahead of other brokers in downgraded Appen after speaking with customers.
AMX was founded in 1980, but it's current iteration began in 2011 when there was a management buyout of the business and ownership was split among key staff and directors. The chart below from the prospectus shows KMP ownership prior to the IPO and the 50%+ ownership that remains today:
Prior to the IPO AMX was a profitable business but a combination of increased investment and Covid meant the business swung to modest operating losses since listing:
Jan 1st 2022
“RIDICULOUS AND cool.” That is the architectural brief for a new office tower under construction in the Crypto Valley, a business district of Decentraland, a virtual platform built on the Ethereum blockchain. The edifice—owned by Tokens.com, a blockchain investor—will be a cross between a nightclub in Ibiza and the Bellagio resort in Las Vegas. In a fantasy world unencumbered by something as pedestrian as physics, a rotating company logo will float above the tower as nearby clouds shoot out company-branded thunderbolts. The tower’s purpose—to provide office leases for firms and event space for crypto conferences—is humdrum by comparison.
Gamers have traded pixelated property and other digital assets for years. Now the activity has been turbocharged by the growth of unique digital artefacts known as non-fungible tokens (NFTs), and by the hype around the metaverse—a emerging virtual market which could, depending on whom you ask, ultimately generate revenues of between $1trn and $30trn.
Real money is changing hands. Some sales involve replicas of the physical world. Users of Legacy, an NFT-powered recreation of London, have spent $54m on plots of land in the game (which is still in development with no launch date). SuperWorld, a virtual planet where people can buy digital versions of any place on Earth, says the average user spends some $3,000 on property purchases. The Taj Mahal and the Eiffel Tower are selling for the cryptocurrency equivalent of around $200,000 and $400,000, respectively. Their current owners paid under $400 each.
Wholly invented worlds are also drawing investors. In November Republic Realm, a company that manages and develops digital real estate, paid $4.3m for land in a platform called the Sandbox, the biggest virtual-property investment to date. That same month Tokens.com spent $2.4m for a plot in Decentraland’s Fashion Street district. Nightclubs and casinos where users can win virtual money line the streets of the gambling district. In its art district Sotheby’s, a real-world auction house, has opened a virtual gallery. Smaller parcels that fetched around $20 apiece when Decentraland launched in 2017 can now sell for as much as $100,000. Somnium Space, a competing platform, reported more than $1.8m of land sales by its users over a 30-day period in November. In other virtual worlds, concert halls stream performances by the digital avatars of pop stars such as Justin Bieber and Ariana Grande. Empty virtual shops could soon be leased by fashion houses such as Gucci, Dolce & Gabbana, Burberry and Balenciaga, all of which have sold branded items in one metaverse or other.
Will the digital-property boom last? As in the physical world, profits depend on footfall and people’s willingness to spend real money. For that to happen at scale the user experience must improve. Popular metaverse platforms such as Decentraland and the Sandbox are clunky. The average user may not want to shell out on the graphics cards, virtual-reality headsets and superfast broadband that gamers use to make cyberspace feel more real.
The second risk is volatility. Virtual-property sales typically involve the exchange of the cryptocurrency unique to a given metaverse. Decentraland has MANA;Sandbox uses digital tokens known as SAND. The price of these can swing wildly, even relative to established crypto monies such as bitcoin or ether, themselves hardly a predictable asset class. They could crash to zero if a particular metaverse bombs.
To lower the risk, early investors such as Republic Realm are diversifying their holdings. The firm says it owns land in 23 metaverse platforms. But unlike physical land, the value of which is in part a function of its scarcity, each virtual realm is in effect limitless. So, in principle, is their number. Hundreds of wannabe metaverses already exist and more will emerge as crypto technology improves. That points to a paradox. Soaring virtual-property prices are predicated on the metaverse taking off. But a booming metaverse means less scarcity and lower prices. The laws of physics may prove easier to work around than the law of supply and demand.
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From the Economist.
I have slowly been catching up on the meetings and presentations and was intrigued by the Metaverse deal.
Interesting space to be in, but clearly there are lots of others doing this already.
MD, Mark Deuter talks all things Aerometrics (ASX:AMX) in this short AusBiz video yesterday.
26-Nov-2020: Taylor Collison: Aerometrex Limited (AMX): Initiating Coverage - Outperform
Analyst: CAMPBELL RAWSON, crawson@taylorcollison.com.au +61 415 146 725 www.taylorcollison.com.au
Our View
AMX operates in an industry where having leading technology is crucial to success. In all operating areas, AMX is the leader or equal leader in aerial image capture and processing with regards to technological capability. Limited access to capital has meant this capability has to date, not led to the corresponding leadership in market share and revenue. Following an IPO 12-months ago, AMX has invested heavily in more technology, people and marketing with the effects only now beginning to flow through the P&L. FY21 will likely see minimal EBITDA growth due to continued investment however we forecast 76% growth for FY22 as recent initiatives take hold and believe FY22 will be a sustainable earnings baseline. Trading on 10.8x our FY22E EV/EBITDA forecast we expect to see multiple expansion as earnings traction increases through 2H21 and the market begins to price in FY22. Furthermore, we expect AMX to take market share in the subscription-revenue space from Nearmap which trades on an 47x FY22E EV/EBITDA multiple. We believe AMX’s 77% discount to Nearmap is too steep given the growth outlook and the industry leading nature of AMX’s assets.
Long-Term Attractions
We see the following as the biggest risks to AMX’s future earnings
--- click on the link at the top to view the entire TC report on AMX ---