Director Tonianne Dwyer buying ~$51k worth on market, her first shares in the company.

From MS.

A significant holding for me. Along with Steadfast as I slowly derisk ahead of imminent retirement

AUB Group's proposed acquisition of Prestige for AUD 432 million is part of its strategy to expand its retail broking business in the UK. Funded by a AUD 400 million placement at AUD 29.40 per share, AUB will still have plenty of firepower for more mergers and acquisitions opportunities.   

Why it matters: The acquisition appears to be a good strategic fit, scaling up the retail broking offering in the UK, which has been predominantly wholesale broking following the Tysers acquisition. Scale leads to improved margins and could entice more brokers to sell an equity stake to AUB.

• Our fiscal 2027 net profit after tax forecast increases around 6% incorporating the acquisition, with medium-term forecasts similarly lifted. We expect the business to grow 3%-4% per year over the medium term, with organic growth and cost savings partially offset by some broker departures.
• Management reiterated fiscal 2026 underlying NPAT guidance of AUD 215 million to AUD 227 million—our forecasts sit at the middle. While yet to be confirmed, management estimates average premiums in Australia are up 5%-7%, which should allay concerns of an earnings headwind from lower premiums.

The bottom line: We increase our fair value estimate by 4% to AUD 39 per share after incorporating the equity raise and acquisition. Subject to individual circumstances, we recommend participating in the share purchase plan. It is priced at AUD 29.40, a material discount to our fair value.

• Acquiring Prestige in a sell-down from private equity and the founders carries risk, such as underinvestment in compliance and technology, and some customer retention being reliant on the founders. Similar risks existed with Tysers and are worth taking for potential upside.
• The market was skeptical of the Tysers acquisition, but with the benefit of hindsight, it looks opportunistic. Annual premium growth has averaged 8% over the past five years, with EBIT growing 20%. Tysers contributed around 30% of fiscal 2025 group profit.

AUB Group Primed for Growth

Business Strategy and Outlook

Nathan Zaia,

Published on Jan 28, 2026

AUB Group operates the second-largest general insurance broker network in Australia and New Zealand. AUB brokers derive revenue from commissions paid by insurers, based on gross written premiums, plus fees. AUB owns or has equity stakes in each broking business within the network. Around half of group profit is delivered by the Australian and New Zealand broker network, around 30% from Tysers in the United Kingdom, and the remainder from underwriting agencies.

A key value proposition over smaller brokers is AUB’s ability to negotiate more favorable policy wording and pricing. Scale also provides the capacity to spend more on technology, which helps facilitate greater analytical and processing capabilities, and marketing to help attract and retain customers. Other services such as claims support and premium funding support the value proposition.

AUB Group’s underwriting agencies distribute insurance products but take no underwriting risk. Underwriting agencies act on behalf of insurers to design, develop, and provide specialized insurance products and services.

The earnings outlook is positive. We expect further insurance price rises over the medium term, albeit not at double-digit levels recently experienced, as insurers seek to cover claims inflation and higher reinsurance costs.

We expect insurance brokers to make modest market share gains of the general insurance market. Technology should allow a greater number of policies per client—for example, adding personal motor/home on top of a business client's insurance needs. AUB’s investment in BizCover, a self-service insurance platform targeting small SMEs, and partnership with accounting firm Kelly+Partners to act as a lead generator should see AUB take share of the small SME end of the market. This share will most likely come from the direct channel.

The acquisition of Tysers was material for AUB Group. We are optimistic that cost and revenue synergy benefits, as well as insurers lifting prices, will lead to solid earnings growth for the business over the long-term. The proposed acquisition of Prestige, a more retail broking-focused business in the UK, could accelerate growth in the UK

Acquisition of Prestige and Equity Raising

• AUB Group Limited (AUB) today announces it has entered into an agreement to acquire 95.9%

of PIHL Holdings Limited (“Prestige”) for AUD 432mn (GBP 219mn)1. Prestige is a diversified

insurance broking and underwriting platform in the UK with over GBP 300mn GWP 2

(“Acquisition”)

• Acquisition values Prestige at EV / CY25 EBITDA 3 of 12.9x (excluding synergies) and 10.0x

(including quantified synergies4)

• Acquisition highly complementary to AUB’s UK strategy – materially bolsters AUB’s scale (to

~GBP 720mn GWP 2 in UK Retail) and capability in the UK market

• Provides additional strategic leadership, specialist broking and MGA capabilities and an efficient

operating model to become the go-forward equity ownership platform for UK Retail broking

and MGA operations

• AUB has launched an underwritten AUD 400mn institutional placement (“Placement”), and an

AUD 40mn non-underwritten share purchase plan (“SPP”) will also be made available to eligible

shareholders

• AUB has also entered into an agreement for an additional debt facility of AUD 200mn with

Macquarie Bank Limited, with improved pricing relative to current Syndicated Facility

Agreement

• Continued business-as-usual M&A, with ~30 transactions in 1H26 and total M&A spend of AUD

200mn5, which includes acquisitions in December 2025 of remaining 30% shareholding in Pacific

Indemnity and additional ~6% shareholding in AUB 360 (together the “Step-ups”) for AUD 96mn

• AUB is pleased to provide a trading update:

o 1H26 UNPAT expected to be in the range of AUD 90mn – 91mn

o Re-affirm FY26 guidance to be in the range of AUD 215.0mn – 227.0mn UNPAT, before

the impact of Prestige and the Step-ups

Takeover offer off, from my reading more just price than anything untoward.

Reaffirmed guidance:

"We remain confident in AUB Group’s forecast FY26 financial performance and see significant opportunities to grow profits in FY27 and beyond.” AUB reaffirms its FY26 guidance for underlying NPAT, to be in the range of AUD215.0 million – AUD227.0 million, representing earnings growth of 7.4% to 13.4%."

Interesting to see the divergence with premium rise guidance between SDF and AUB previously - guess we get to see who was right/wrong or really is just product mix.

Both SDF and AUB look good to me especially if inflation comes back.

I've bought into both IRL today.

AUB announcement this morning: Under the terms of the Confidentiality Agreement, EQT was required to re-confirm its intention to proceed with the Proposal to acquire AUB at $45.00 cash for each AUB share to retain exclusivity. EQT has provided such re-confirmation.

..

The AUB Board notes that there is no guarantee that a binding agreement will be reached with EQT and therefore no certainty that the Proposal will result in a transaction.

…

so- from what it has seen in DD, EQT still wants to proceed. Still not-binding but harder for EQT to say business case doesn’t stack up after initial DD.

3020253.pdf

EQT proposed $45 per share bid for AUB had the following exclusivity terms:

Hard Exclusivity End Date means the date that is 20 business days after Thursday, 9 October 2025. Tomorrow is the 20th day after 9/10.

Exclusivity Period means the period commencing 8 October 2025 and ending at 5:00pm (Sydney time) on the earlier of: 5pm on Thursday 20 Nov (which can be extended if EQT commits to the transaction).

As I understand it the AUB board can negotiate with others if it forms the view in good faith that doing so would be in accordance with duties but no non-public info can be provided until the end of the Exclusivity Period.

Meanwhile AUB share price is $9 below the offer price, suggesting a lack of confidence in a deal being done.

AFR Streetalk

Underperformer AUB Group in crosshairs of private equity suitor

ASX-listed insurance roll-up AUB Group, whose shares have underperformed peers including Steadfast Group over the past 12-months, is in play.

The $3.8 billion company has attracted the attention of Swedish private equity firm EQT Group, according to people with knowledge of the mooted deal, who requested anonymity.

Of note, it is unclear whether the high-level discussions have progressed or if EQT has submitted an informal takeover proposal to AUB’s Peter Harmer-chaired board.

Goldman Sachs is advising EQT Group and Macquarie Capital is tending to AUB Group, the sources said.

Board Ownership

                                                Ordinary Shares         Net Value at $31.40

David Clarke                                        30,837                         $968,282

Mike Emmett                                      169,483                       $5,321,766

Richard Deutsch                                  3,250                           $102,050

Peter Harmer                                      3,415                           $107,231                                 

Andrew Kendrick                                0                                  0

Melanie Laing                                     1714                            $53,820

Cath Rogers                                        8,404                           $263,886

Total                                                    217,103                       $6,817,034

Current Market Cap at $31.40 is $3.632B

Recent Buying from Board

Melanie Laing

·      31 May 2024 Purchase 1714 Shares at average price of $29.16 ($49,980.65)

Richard Deutsch

·      7 November 2023 Purchase 1250 shares at average price of $27.27 ($34,087.50)

Board Bios

David Clarke - Non-Executive Chair, Chair of the Nomination Committee

David Clarke was Chief Executive Officer of Investec Bank (Australia) Limited from 2009 to 2013. Prior to joining Investec Bank, David was the CEO of Allco Finance Group and a Director of AMP Limited, following five years at Westpac Banking Corporation where he held a number of senior roles, including Chief Executive of BT Financial Group. David has 40 years’ experience in investment banking, funds management, property and retail banking. He was previously employed at Lend Lease Corporation Limited where he was an Executive Director and Chief Executive of MLC Limited. David is Chairman of Charter Hall Group, Fisher Funds Management Limited and Resolution Life Australasia Limited. David holds a Bachelor of Laws from Victoria University in Wellington, New Zealand.

Mike Emmett - Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director

Mike has enjoyed a diverse career working across the Insurance, Consulting, and IT Industries in Australia, the UK and South Africa. Prior to joining AUB Group, Mike was the Group CEO for Cover-More, previously an ASX-listed global travel insurer and now part of the Zurich Group. Mike previously held senior roles in Australia at QBE as Group Executive, Operations, and EY leading the Financial Services Advisory business. Before moving to Australia, Mike spent several years working in London, including at IBM, leading the Insurance and Banking consulting teams and at Morse plc (Application Services) as Managing Director. Mike’s earlier career in South Africa included senior roles in Consulting at IBM, Accenture and PwC. Mike is also a Chartered Accountant (SA).

Richard Deutsch -Non-Executive Director, Chair of the Board Audit & Risk Management Committee

Richard is a Non-Executive Director of Bendigo & Adelaide Bank Limited. He is the Chair of the Movember Foundation and a Champions of Change Coalition Convenor and Advisor to CEOs and Boards. Richard brings extensive experience delivering complex audit and advisory services to Australia’s leading public, private, government and not-for-profit organisations for more than 30 years. Richard was the Chief Executive Officer of Deloitte Australia from 2018 to 2021. Prior to the CEO role, Richard was the Managing Partner of the Audit & Advisory Practice and a member of the Global Audit & Advisory Leadership Team. Richard’s career also includes more than 25 years working with PwC, including nine years on PwC’s Australian executive. Richard holds a Bachelor of Economics from the University of Sydney.

Peter Harmer - Non-Executive Director

Peter is the former CEO of IAG Limited, and has served previously as the CEO of CGU, Aon Limited UK, Aon Risk Services Australia Pacific, and Aon Re Australia. Peter has over 40 years’ experience in the industry spanning insurance, reinsurance broking, and insurance broking. He is a Non-Executive Director of Commonwealth Bank of Australia and nib Holdings Limited, and is the Chair of Lawcover Insurance Pty Ltd. Peter is also a member of the Advisory Council for Bain & Company, an Executive Mentor with Merryck & Co ANZ, and a member of the Advisory Council of EXL Services Asia Pacific.

Andrew Kendrick -Non-Executive Director

Andrew Kendrick is a former Non-Executive Director of Lloyd’s of London and the Lloyd’s Market Association. He has more than 40 years’ experience in the insurance industry in the UK, Europe and Bermuda.  Andrew’s executive career includes leadership positions with Chubb and Ace, culminating in the role of President & Chairman, Chubb European Group. He began his career at Sturge Syndicate 210, and held a number of senior underwriting positions with Ockham Underwriting. Andrew is the Chair of Everest Insurance (Ireland) DAC.

Melanie Laing - Non-Executive Director, Chair of the People and Remuneration Committee

Melanie Laing is a Non-Executive Director of global, ASX-listed (US domiciled) digital education provider, Keypath Education International, and of ASX-listed Ridley Corporation, one of Australia’s leading agricultural companies. Melanie was group executive of HR at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, where she was responsible for the strategic planning, transformation and implementation of the bank's global people agenda and HR operations. Previously, she was global head of people and culture at Origin Energy, and has held senior HR leadership roles with Unisys, Vodafone, General Re and Times Mirror, in Australia and overseas. Melanie holds a Bachelor of Arts from the University of the Witwatersrand. She is a fellow of the Australian Institute of Company Directors (FAICD) and the Australian Human Resources Institute (FAHRI), a member of Chief Executive Women (CEW) Australia and certified chair with the Advisory Board Centre.

Cath Rogers - Non-Executive Director

Cath Rogers is a member of the Commercialisation Committee of the Heart Research Institute and was previously a Non-Executive Director of fintech Digital Wallet Pty Limited which trades as Beem It (2018-2021) and McGrath Limited (2016-2018). She has a background in financial services, private equity and venture capital both in Australia and overseas including with Antler, AirTree Ventures, Anchorage Capital Partners, Masdar Capital and Credit Suisse. Cath holds a Bachelor of Commerce from the University of New South Wales and an MBA from INSEAD. She is also a CFA Charterholder and a graduate of the Australian Institute of Company Directors.

The following is a part extract from this mornings ASX release which was a little more positive than anticipated.

I've added at current share price as imo I see this as a value buy with growth upside.

Upgraded and Updated Earnings Guidance for FY23 AUB Group Limited (AUB) today announced that, as a result of strong Q1 FY23 trading and completion of the Tysers acquisition on 30 September 2022, it is updating guidance for FY23.

FY23 underlying net profit after tax (UNPAT) guidance for AUB, including Tysers and Group debt costs, is expected to be in the range of AUD107.5mn to AUD115.0mn, representing growth of 45.2% to 55.4% over FY22.

AUB’s FY23 UNPAT (excl Tysers and cost of debt) is expected to be in the range of AUD90.0mn to AUD92.0mn, representing 21.6% to 24.3% growth over FY22.

Previous FY23 UNPAT guidance announced to the market on 24 August 2022 was in the range of AUD86.0mn to AUD91.0mn.

Additionally, following completion of the Tysers acquisition on 30 September 2022, AUB announced that Tysers is expected to contribute UNPAT in the range of AUD45.0mn to AUD52.5mn for the nine months to 30 June 2023. 

1H21 Performance Overview

A record 1H21 result that positions AUB Group for another strong year

Summary

•  Underlying NPAT1 $30.7mn (1HFY20: $21.3mn) up 44.2%.
•  Underlying earnings per share 41.47 cents up 43.2%.
•  Mixture of underlying organic and acquisition driven growth primarily in Australian Broking.
•  Reported Net Profit After Tax $24mn (1HFY20: $16.6mn), up 44.5%.
•  Fully franked interim dividend of 16.0 cents per share (1HFY20: 14.5 cps), an increase of 10.3%. Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP) remains activated.
•  Excellent results in Australian Broking are a result of recent initiatives that will continue to drive sustainable improvement in revenue and underlying cost drivers.
•  Accelerating growth in BizCover together with strong progress against FY21 Execution Priorities. 
• Sale of Altius agreed, completing exit from Health & Rehabilitation Services.
•  Continued focus to deliver on growth ambitions – Upgraded FY21 Underlying NPAT guidance of $63.0mn - $65.0mn, representing 17.9% - 21.7% growth on FY20.

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02344610-2A1282144?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4