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Interestingly, AUB has also dropped significantly, perhaps in sympathy to SDF, or perhaps because 10million shares have just got released from escrow.
Also represents a buying opportunity?
Board Ownership
Ordinary Shares Net Value at $31.40
David Clarke 30,837 $968,282
Mike Emmett 169,483 $5,321,766
Richard Deutsch 3,250 $102,050
Peter Harmer 3,415 $107,231
Andrew Kendrick 0 0
Melanie Laing 1714 $53,820
Cath Rogers 8,404 $263,886
Total 217,103 $6,817,034
Current Market Cap at $31.40 is $3.632B
Recent Buying from Board
Melanie Laing
· 31 May 2024 Purchase 1714 Shares at average price of $29.16 ($49,980.65)
Richard Deutsch
· 7 November 2023 Purchase 1250 shares at average price of $27.27 ($34,087.50)
Board Bios
David Clarke - Non-Executive Chair, Chair of the Nomination Committee
David Clarke was Chief Executive Officer of Investec Bank (Australia) Limited from 2009 to 2013. Prior to joining Investec Bank, David was the CEO of Allco Finance Group and a Director of AMP Limited, following five years at Westpac Banking Corporation where he held a number of senior roles, including Chief Executive of BT Financial Group. David has 40 years’ experience in investment banking, funds management, property and retail banking. He was previously employed at Lend Lease Corporation Limited where he was an Executive Director and Chief Executive of MLC Limited. David is Chairman of Charter Hall Group, Fisher Funds Management Limited and Resolution Life Australasia Limited. David holds a Bachelor of Laws from Victoria University in Wellington, New Zealand.
Mike has enjoyed a diverse career working across the Insurance, Consulting, and IT Industries in Australia, the UK and South Africa. Prior to joining AUB Group, Mike was the Group CEO for Cover-More, previously an ASX-listed global travel insurer and now part of the Zurich Group. Mike previously held senior roles in Australia at QBE as Group Executive, Operations, and EY leading the Financial Services Advisory business. Before moving to Australia, Mike spent several years working in London, including at IBM, leading the Insurance and Banking consulting teams and at Morse plc (Application Services) as Managing Director. Mike’s earlier career in South Africa included senior roles in Consulting at IBM, Accenture and PwC. Mike is also a Chartered Accountant (SA).
Richard is a Non-Executive Director of Bendigo & Adelaide Bank Limited. He is the Chair of the Movember Foundation and a Champions of Change Coalition Convenor and Advisor to CEOs and Boards. Richard brings extensive experience delivering complex audit and advisory services to Australia’s leading public, private, government and not-for-profit organisations for more than 30 years. Richard was the Chief Executive Officer of Deloitte Australia from 2018 to 2021. Prior to the CEO role, Richard was the Managing Partner of the Audit & Advisory Practice and a member of the Global Audit & Advisory Leadership Team. Richard’s career also includes more than 25 years working with PwC, including nine years on PwC’s Australian executive. Richard holds a Bachelor of Economics from the University of Sydney.
Peter is the former CEO of IAG Limited, and has served previously as the CEO of CGU, Aon Limited UK, Aon Risk Services Australia Pacific, and Aon Re Australia. Peter has over 40 years’ experience in the industry spanning insurance, reinsurance broking, and insurance broking. He is a Non-Executive Director of Commonwealth Bank of Australia and nib Holdings Limited, and is the Chair of Lawcover Insurance Pty Ltd. Peter is also a member of the Advisory Council for Bain & Company, an Executive Mentor with Merryck & Co ANZ, and a member of the Advisory Council of EXL Services Asia Pacific.
Andrew Kendrick is a former Non-Executive Director of Lloyd’s of London and the Lloyd’s Market Association. He has more than 40 years’ experience in the insurance industry in the UK, Europe and Bermuda. Andrew’s executive career includes leadership positions with Chubb and Ace, culminating in the role of President & Chairman, Chubb European Group. He began his career at Sturge Syndicate 210, and held a number of senior underwriting positions with Ockham Underwriting. Andrew is the Chair of Everest Insurance (Ireland) DAC.
Melanie Laing - Non-Executive Director, Chair of the People and Remuneration Committee
Melanie Laing is a Non-Executive Director of global, ASX-listed (US domiciled) digital education provider, Keypath Education International, and of ASX-listed Ridley Corporation, one of Australia’s leading agricultural companies. Melanie was group executive of HR at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, where she was responsible for the strategic planning, transformation and implementation of the bank's global people agenda and HR operations. Previously, she was global head of people and culture at Origin Energy, and has held senior HR leadership roles with Unisys, Vodafone, General Re and Times Mirror, in Australia and overseas. Melanie holds a Bachelor of Arts from the University of the Witwatersrand. She is a fellow of the Australian Institute of Company Directors (FAICD) and the Australian Human Resources Institute (FAHRI), a member of Chief Executive Women (CEW) Australia and certified chair with the Advisory Board Centre.
Cath Rogers is a member of the Commercialisation Committee of the Heart Research Institute and was previously a Non-Executive Director of fintech Digital Wallet Pty Limited which trades as Beem It (2018-2021) and McGrath Limited (2016-2018). She has a background in financial services, private equity and venture capital both in Australia and overseas including with Antler, AirTree Ventures, Anchorage Capital Partners, Masdar Capital and Credit Suisse. Cath holds a Bachelor of Commerce from the University of New South Wales and an MBA from INSEAD. She is also a CFA Charterholder and a graduate of the Australian Institute of Company Directors.
The following is a part extract from this mornings ASX release which was a little more positive than anticipated.
I've added at current share price as imo I see this as a value buy with growth upside.
Upgraded and Updated Earnings Guidance for FY23 AUB Group Limited (AUB) today announced that, as a result of strong Q1 FY23 trading and completion of the Tysers acquisition on 30 September 2022, it is updating guidance for FY23.
FY23 underlying net profit after tax (UNPAT) guidance for AUB, including Tysers and Group debt costs, is expected to be in the range of AUD107.5mn to AUD115.0mn, representing growth of 45.2% to 55.4% over FY22.
AUB’s FY23 UNPAT (excl Tysers and cost of debt) is expected to be in the range of AUD90.0mn to AUD92.0mn, representing 21.6% to 24.3% growth over FY22.
Previous FY23 UNPAT guidance announced to the market on 24 August 2022 was in the range of AUD86.0mn to AUD91.0mn.
Additionally, following completion of the Tysers acquisition on 30 September 2022, AUB announced that Tysers is expected to contribute UNPAT in the range of AUD45.0mn to AUD52.5mn for the nine months to 30 June 2023.
A little bigger than what is preferred by the Strawman community but this seems to be an attractive place highlighted by a few fund managers - AUB and SDF.
The reason it is attractive is as brokers they take a clip of the premium, so higher premiums are good. We are in a premium hardening cycle for most types of insurance and the increased prevalence of natural disasters seems to be a tailwind. They take no underwriting risk as brokers. The factor that perhaps may weigh on premium increases in the future, is higher bond rates so insurers may start to lower premium increases as they are finally being compensated with a return on their float.
AUB looks quite attractive with management guiding for underlying NPAT of $86M to $91M in FY23 excluding the Tyser acquisition. If we look at Tysers acquisition multiple of 12x EV/EBITDA and a $880M purchase price we make a few adjustments can expect Tysers to contribute about $45M in NPAT if it was for a full year.
Taking the lower of guidance of $86M plus $45M equals $131M in NPAT. Noting that Tysers acquisition isn’t complete so won’t contribute for the full year (likely only get 6 months in FY23). EV of $1.8B with potential derferred consideration for Tyers of $187M. Lets be conservative and call it $2B EV so looking at about NPAT/EV multiple 15.2x for a relatively defensive business if you annualise Tysers earnings.
Looking to keep the same dividend payout ratio of 50-70% of NPAT. Using the lower payout ratio of 50 %of NPAT looking at 3.3% fully franked (conservative) with plenty of growth - both organic and inoranic - ahead. Those who just want income and some growth it may be worth a look.
I’d note Morningstar has a fair value of $28 and broker consensus if $27.20 so 35% upside or so from current prices.
1H21 Performance Overview
A record 1H21 result that positions AUB Group for another strong year
Summary
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02344610-2A1282144?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4