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A good Straw offers a clear and concise perspective on the company and its prospects.
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1.5 years ago, I detailed some of my main gripes with Credit Clear in the following forum post: https://strawman.com/forums/topic/6847
The TL;DR: Credit Clear tends to oversell the idea that they’re an AI and machine learning software company when, in reality, they’re more of a collections services company that uses software. While my opinion on that hasn’t changed much, I now find the business more interesting and have added it to both my personal and Strawman portfolios.
As a bit of background, Credit Clear is a collections services company. They help organizations recover overdue bills and loans, from the time a bill is issued up to around 180 days past due.
Many organisations require these types of services, as managing overdue payments internally can be a real headache. That’s why Credit Clear, along with many competitors, exists. Collection services companies collect overdue debts on the behalf of banks, credit unions, lenders, utilities, local, various levels of government, B2B companies, and essentially any business facing late payments.
Debts more 180 days overdue are generally considered highly impaired, and organisations may consider selling these to debt purchasing companies at cents on the dollar. The two largest debt purchasing companies in Australia - both listed on the ASX - are Credit Corp (CCP.AX) and Pioneer Credit (PNC.AX).
In the collections services space, Credit Clear is likely the second-largest player in Australia and New Zealand, after Credit Corp, with FY24 revenues of $42.2m compared to Credit Corp’s $75.5m.
EBIT Normalised is EBIT excluding amortisation of customer contracts from prior acquisitions
There are several things I like about the company:
On the downside, Credit Clear isn’t an obvious bargain at current prices. An EV/S of around 2.5x isn’t cheap for a business services company with 53% gross margins, especially one that still requires collections staff to scale and is only just reaching profitability. However, if they can continue growing organically at a healthy pace and drive operating leverage, earnings could improve rapidly.
I believe that large language models (LLMs) and machine learning technologies are advancing rapidly and will significantly transform the operations of contact center businesses like Credit Clear over the next decade. These advancements will lead to increased efficiency, greater automation, and the displacement of tasks traditionally performed by humans. Credit Clear appears well-positioned to capitalise on these trends. As one of the larger collections services company in Australia and New Zealand, they have the scale to invest in in-house technology platforms and leverage technological advancements. Furthermore, having been initially established as a software-only company, improving efficiency through technology is a core part of the group’s DNA.
I’m interested to track the continued progress with ANZ. Credit Clear has been collecting debt for ANZ for the past 3-6 months and increased work from a small position on one portfolio to a bigger piece in 3 portfolio. Management claims they have a leading recovery rate compared to competitors on the same panel, exceeding them by over 50%, and they also lead in most other metrics. Increased work-share with ANZ will showcase how their technology focus and scale provide a quantitative advantage over competitors. This will serve as valuable collateral for the sales team, potentially leading to more wins and further market share gains.
Shares are consolidating just beneath the 52w high. If it breaks out decisively, that will be very bullish.
A similar business, Indebted, is valued at 3x.
https://www.afr.com/technology/digital-debt-collector-worth-350m-after-big-money-raise-20240919-p5kbya
This was an impressive quarter from Credit Clear.
Highlights:
• Record revenue: $11.5m1 up 28% on prior corresponding period (pcp) with growth driven
by winning more share of wallet from existing clients and growing revenue from new
clients
• Cash from operations: $1.8m1 for the quarter, an improvement of $1.6m on pcp, and the
fifth consecutive quarter of positive cash from operations taking YTD net cash from
operations to $3.6m
• Guidance achieved: FY24 Underlying EBITDA3 of approximately $4m1 and revenue of
approximately $42.0m1. The Company will provide FY25 guidance with the upcoming FY24
results on 28 August 2024
• Strong balance sheet: $13.1m cash at bank, an improvement of $0.7m QoQ and $1.1m on
pcp, leaving the Company well positioned to fund growth opportunities
• Clients signed: 85 new clients signed, including five expected tier-2 clients2,4 and 20
expected tier-3 clients2,4.
• Digital collections: Up 65% on pcp to $33.2m for the quarter, surpassing $10.0m for each
month in the quarter and achieving a record month of $11.8m for the quarter, with digital
technology boosting performance and profitability
• Strong trading conditions: Increasing demand for Credit Clear's services highlighted by
the Company’s Consumer division receiving 56% more files in H2FY24 2024 on pcp.
Takeaway
All key metrics are heading in the right direction on the revenue, cost, earnings and cash flow lines. The company seems to have inflected into profitability, stringing a few OCF positive quarters together.
Combined with an asset light business model and the obvious tailwinds from AI, and it is setting up well to continue to outperform over the coming quarters.
should be interesting
Valuation on H1 Results (14/3/23)
FY23 H1 Result Summary
· Sales up 166% vs PCP, which is muddied by the ARMA acquisition but HoH sales are up 17%
· Op Cash flow positive +$599k, FCF much improved at -$648k
· They point to “Normalised EBITDA” which is +$968k, the exclusion of $2.5m ARMA earn out makes sense but Share Based Expenses of $1,989 is a stretch, EBITDA is still heavily negative at -$4.4m as is NPAT at -$7.2m
· Digital collections are up 35% and Transactions processed are up 37% in the half.
· Tailwinds for growth flagged: Fewer competitors (M&A activity – hmmm, fewer but bigger competitor in my view), Cost of living (agree this is a big help) and Less debt being sold (well this may change as we head into a recession).
· Current annualised revenue of $34.8, expected to reach $40.1m on current signings.
Note: Escrow release of 45m shares occurred on 7Feb23 from ARMA purchase consideration.
Valuation
I have valued using a two methods, DCF at 11% and discounted PE of 15 from FY28 forecasted EPS figures to get the values. Assumptions for each noted, but all have the same FY23 assumption of 37.8m sales (below 40.1m company guidance), -6.9m EBITDA, -10.4m NPAT.
Bull Case ($0.96-$1.46): Sales grow strongly, reaching A$136m by FY28 and cost discipline to improve EBITDA% to 54.2% (positive FY24) and NPAT% to 36.3% (positive FY24) by FY28. This is the opportunity if they can maintain high growth though rapid customer and revenue per customer growth and do so in a capital light low cost (high margin) digital service offering.
Base Case ($0.31-$0.44): Heading into an economic down turn which should provide CCR a tail wind and on the back of strong growth I have the same sales assumptions for my base case as my Bull. But the history of cost growth leads me to adopt the bear case for costs. So by 2028 EBITDA% of 18.7% (positive from FY25) and NPAT% of 10.6% (positive from FY26) as profit is achieved through sales growth rather than margin expansion.
Bear Case ($0.15-$0.21): Sales grow much more slowly, reaching A$75m by FY28 and cost continue to grow at just below sales growth rates. So by 2028 EBITDA% of 17.6% (positive from FY25) and NPAT% of 7.4% (positive from FY26) similar to base case but on a much lower top line.
The acquisition of ARMA makes it hard to get a view on sales and cost growth going forward. I hope the FY23 results provide some clarity because the valuation depends heavily on it. With good sales growth and improved operating leverage it’s a great business, cash flow results for H1 showed a good sign, but they are yet to prove an ability to keep a lid on cost growth and grow rapidly at the same time.
I was thinking of selling on valuation grounds ($0.38 base mid-point), but seem to have missed that boat. Also, I feel that the next 12 months offers CCR an inflection point in terms of profitable growth. They may not take it (for many reasons), but having bought at much higher prices, I will stick with my loss aversion and hold…
Disc: I own in RL & SM
Summary from announcement below. The foot in the door with IAG is good to see, growth in sales flagged is also welcome, but as CCR scale, the numbers quoted will need be much larger for a share price bump. This level of growth is base line at best in my view and has spurred me to updating my valuation for the H1 results which I will publish later.
Announcement highlights:
• In March, Credit Clear has signed a two-year agreement with IAG
• Credit Clear will deploy its purpose-built digital workflow for IAG, enabling third-party payments to be made online
• In January and February, 52 new clients were signed for a total of $2.4m in Potential Reveune1
• The appointment of PSC Insurance founder Paul Dwyer as Credit Clear’s Chairman has enhanced the Company’s reach into Australian and international insurance markets
• The Company expects revenue from insurance clients to grow 141% this year, from a total of $2.2m achieved in FY22 to approximately $5.3m in FY23
Disc: I own in RL & SM
Wasn't impressed with the top line shrinking here, maybe its q4 and a bit of down time on collection for Xmas, but they must either be having trouble on boarding these new clients (and they've said they need to speed this up) or something else is eroding in the background. As was pointed out here on the strawman meeting (I think) they didn't pick up any organic growth in q1 either. These last couple of reasons are less tangible and may be unfair, but I was concerned that it took to the 31st for the quarterly (they did last Jan so maybe no big deal, and everyone needs a bit of allowance in Jan!), and was concerned that they haven't advertised an investor briefing, seems out of character. I said I'd give them 2 quarters and am normally slow to sell, but have broken my own rule and sold out after only 1! I'm happy to watch it upto the next quarterly.
Credit Clear - second consecutive cash flow positive quarter - signing 83 clients
I'm ascribing a 50c value to CCR, based on assumptions outlined below, with in my mind enough upside asymmetry to make it a buy. I purchased on market at 40c a few weeks ago.
There are a number of aspects of the business I like, including:
- Reasonably high insider ownership, founders still onboard (of both Credit Clear and ARMA).
- Its simple. Digitising debt collection seems simple and they're taking a good first mover position. No super high capital investments, no irrational billionaire disruptors/competitors, not sexy.
- Have invested ~A$30m in AI. Their use of AI sounds pretty simple and has been proven to work. To me that probably makes it a good application rather than looking for a "hail mary" application.
- They have grown by acquisition, but Q1 FY23 showed strong leading indicators of growth in new clients, increased digital payments. I'll look to see the end user number and revenue follow in next quarters. If revenue doesn't grow over next 2 quarters I need to reassess.
- Growing into a large market and potential for international expansion given the relative simplicity of the tech and global nature of the industry
- Unfortunately, there's likely to be growing demand for their services as the music stops around the world on cheap credit.
- Cashflow positive, cash in the bank (although growing earn-out obligation to ARMA founders)
Things that concern me and I am watching:
- Relatively slow revenue growth (compared to my expectations) in Q1-23. I expect better for next few quarters as discussed above.
- Risk around personal security and hacking and lack of trust in digital communications. Doesn't mean there's necessarily great trust in "old school" methods, but it might slow some of their onboarding or force some redesign of their communications and algorithm.
- The whole ARMA acquisition (almost a merger) is relatively new. On the outside looks like a logical and harmonious merger, especially with Smith taking over as CEO. But always something to watch to ensure the happy family stays happy. The incentives are a bit awkward with Smith now running the business and his earn-out still growing for the next few months.
- It's not dirt cheap so there's downside risk. Current market cap ~150m, yet unprofitable and in a non-sexy industry. Potential for the market to dump it if growth is slow to materialize.
Valuation:
I've run a few DCFs at NPV10 and am comfortable with the risk reward at 40c currently.
50c valuation is based on the following:
High revenue growth occurs thanks to successful execution of the digitization model at a time when the macro is in their favour with world facing rising cost of debt. ~A$100m revenue by 2026 and A$200m revenue by 2032. Continues to grow at 5% after that. Important to note 40% of my value is picked up after 2032. I'd argue this is no different to saying you expect a PE of 20 in 5 years time - implying you think you can sell it to someone else who will see long life profits at that point in time.
Gross margins transition from 50% (non-digital) upto 70% by 2027. Management have stated digital collection has 85% gross margins, I'm not going all the way there.
The fixed cost base increases gradually to about A$70m in 2032.
By signing four contracts with new and existing insurance clients in Sep22, CCR has further widened its insurance sector offering. A new contract with Zurich Australian Insurance Limited (Zurich) and two contracts with new motor insurance specialists including Aioi Nissay Dowa Insurance Company Australia (ADICA) further expanded its relationship with one of Australia's largest insurance groups. Revenue from insurance clients is expected to grow 150% this year, from a total of $2.2m achieved in FY22 to $5.5m in FY23.
On 15 Sep 22, CCR provided a business update for the month of Aug22. With new clients onboarded in the past few months, growing debt referrals from the existing clients contributed significant growth in the month of August, with revenue reaching a new record of $3.28m.
The group's legal recovery businesses also produced strong growth in revenue for the month. The revenue run rate is now $39.4m2, and the company has achieved four consecutive months of operational profitability.
Awarded “Best use of AI” at the 7th Annual Australian Fintech Awards. The company was also been named an “Insurtech Start-up of the Year” finalist at 2022 Australian and New Zealand Institute of Insurance and Finance (ANZIIF) industry awards for its automation of third-party motor claims with potential Insurance clients building strongly in the pipeline.
Late last year Credit Clear acquired ARMA for $46M, funded by a $25.5M insto placement and $4M share plan at 40c.
ARMA offers a debt recovery solution, outsourced accounts receivables and litigation services. Last year ARMA reported $6.4M in EBITDA from $15.5M revenue.
It’s all about the synergies, isn’t it always, with Credit Clear intending to pursue its billing platform in ARMA’s approximately 400 customers.
ARMA co-founder Andrew Smith will take the role of CEO of the joint organisation with former CEO, who has only been in the seat around 6 months, is moving to a new role to focus on international markets.
Shares are down around 20% in the last 6 months. Not held, but will be watching to see if the synergies eventuate.
Credit Clear has taken out the award for “Best use of AI” at the sixth annual 2021 Australian FinTECH Awards over contenders Moula and MyMoney.
In winning the Best use of AI award, Credit Clear demonstrated integrating AI into its accounts receivable technology had resulted in a 150% plus increase in collections.
The company uses AI to "select the optimal content and channel of engagement which can lead to significantly better outcomes, while a wrong decision can result in increased costs or worse, permanently lost opportunities".
Using its next best action (NBA) model, the Credit Clear developed its AI technology to optimise recoveries while minimising collection costs.
Credit Clear says its NBA model treats every account in a “distinctly unique way” and has a recurrent neural network to assist with building and identifying patterns in a customer’s engagement history.
In other words, they have optimised when to hound people over outstanding debts.
Credit Clear has delivered solid results with a 70% revenue increase to $11 million. The increase has come organically from digital revenues, new client wins and high retention rates across their customer accounts across various industries including transport, financial services, insurance, government, and utilities.
This puts them on their way to meeting the aspiration of being leading technology company in receivable management, delivered using proprietary digital billing and communications platform. Both artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) are used to increase engagement and improve debt management.
The process uses email and SMS to target customers. While this sounds like standard debt recovery tools, the use of technology has been proven to increase recovery. In the 4 years since launch the company has increased recovery rates by over 300% for customers including Bendigo Bank, Suncorp, ME Bank.
This is a highly competitive (and regulated) market that can be a tough way to make money, especially against large, established competitors - did someone say Collection House?
Incoming CEO David Hentschke has a growth hat, seeking to expand the use of technology as well as investigating opportunities outside Australia. This is a watch to see if he can execute as he does not come from this industry.
The company has also recently added Hugh Robertson, director of equity capital markets at Bell Potter to the board. Robertson currently sits on the board of Envirosuite and Maggie Beer, and brings decades of experience in financial services.