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Last edited 3 years ago
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###TMC
stale
Last edited 3 years ago

Hi Brendan2031 Did some rough calculations based of 13/09 NTA of 1.43.

13/09 TMC price 10.89 value of 85M AUD = 62M USD thus CDM holding based on these numbers ~5.67m TMC share 

22/09 TMC price 6.92 = 39.4m USD ~55m AUD and based on ~shares on issue brings a 13/09 Nta of 1.43 back to nta of 1.32 being all other CDM holding not moving.

These are back of the envelope calcs thus ~~~ 

Hindsight is a wonderful thing 29/09 TMC price 4.33 bleeding hasnt stopped yet if they would have IPOed in July may have been a different story, so listing at all time highs in Sept was always a risk. The issue now is confidence the SPAC beneficiaries have exited the story is long term with ship still being refitted, regulatory approval not expected till 2023 and production 2024. Have seen this type of response many times before with Aust miners, lot of hype selloff occurs and takes a long time if ever to recover, so dont think the separate LIC option will fly and CDM may trade backwards so will watch NTA discount as they do hold quality in the rest of the portfolio

##TMC
stale
Added 3 years ago

Signficant fall in TMC overnight with volume, finishing near its low of the day at $6.92, early days but not a good look at the moment. Also not sure about CDM strategy of splitting TMC into a separate single stock LIC with some cash, it would be small, illquid and cant see the market being that enthusiastic, would have thought exiting the position if TMC doesnt kick on and paying the tax and putting the money to better use would be more prudent.

Disc Did exit my position at $1.21 on the basis that TMC did fall below Float price and TMC premium built into CDM evaporated. Will keep on watch list to see what Karl's next move is

#Bull Case
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Added 3 years ago

Probably not the best night for an IPO with TMC opening at 11.05 with a high of 11.08 low of 8.31 and close of 9.41 will watch with interest