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#Management
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Added 12 months ago

Some funds management 101 on display here by Cadence Capital. When your YTD and One year returns, start to go pear-shaped, just remove those columns from your updates & always report your returns, excluding fees, because investors don't care about that sort of stuff.

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###TMC
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Last edited 3 years ago

Hi Brendan2031 Did some rough calculations based of 13/09 NTA of 1.43.

13/09 TMC price 10.89 value of 85M AUD = 62M USD thus CDM holding based on these numbers ~5.67m TMC share 

22/09 TMC price 6.92 = 39.4m USD ~55m AUD and based on ~shares on issue brings a 13/09 Nta of 1.43 back to nta of 1.32 being all other CDM holding not moving.

These are back of the envelope calcs thus ~~~ 

Hindsight is a wonderful thing 29/09 TMC price 4.33 bleeding hasnt stopped yet if they would have IPOed in July may have been a different story, so listing at all time highs in Sept was always a risk. The issue now is confidence the SPAC beneficiaries have exited the story is long term with ship still being refitted, regulatory approval not expected till 2023 and production 2024. Have seen this type of response many times before with Aust miners, lot of hype selloff occurs and takes a long time if ever to recover, so dont think the separate LIC option will fly and CDM may trade backwards so will watch NTA discount as they do hold quality in the rest of the portfolio

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##TMC
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Added 3 years ago

Signficant fall in TMC overnight with volume, finishing near its low of the day at $6.92, early days but not a good look at the moment. Also not sure about CDM strategy of splitting TMC into a separate single stock LIC with some cash, it would be small, illquid and cant see the market being that enthusiastic, would have thought exiting the position if TMC doesnt kick on and paying the tax and putting the money to better use would be more prudent.

Disc Did exit my position at $1.21 on the basis that TMC did fall below Float price and TMC premium built into CDM evaporated. Will keep on watch list to see what Karl's next move is

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#Bull Case
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Last edited 3 years ago

Agree with afrowest, it probably wasn't the best debut for TMC, the writing was on the wall though when they fell well short of the raising they were looking for.  Given CDM buy in price I still expect an uplift in the NTA come Monday but am starting to think this is already baked into the share price.  Looking like there is potential for it to return to trading at a discount to NTA.  Perhaps that is the fair outcome

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#Bull Case
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Added 3 years ago

Probably not the best night for an IPO with TMC opening at 11.05 with a high of 11.08 low of 8.31 and close of 9.41 will watch with interest 

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#Bull Case
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Added 3 years ago

From this latest announcement from CDM we should see a material increase in the NTA on Monday 13th which will reflect TMC now having listed and trading on the NASDAQ. I've added a significant amount over the past few weeks and as this will be the last opportunity before details are released Monday I'll pick up a few more today in hope that Monday's trading results in the significant upside most are expecting.

ASX RELEASE:

10th September 2021 TMC The Metals Company Inc. Investment Update (Previously DeepGreen Metals Inc.) DeepGreen Metals Inc. announced overnight that they have completed their business combination with Sustainable Opportunities Acquisition Corporation (SOAC).

The combined company will operate as TMC The Metals Company and its common shares and warrants are expected to begin trading on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the new ticker symbols “TMC” and “TMCWW” respectively today the 10 September 2021 (New York time - EDT).

Overnight the SOAC share price (SOAC US) closed at USD$ 10.62.

Monday’s 13th September 2021 weekly NTA announcement will include the full value appreciation of the TMC IPO. Wayne Davies Company Secretary

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#Bull Case
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Added 3 years ago

CDM ASX RELEASE 8th SEPT:

DeepGreen Metals Investment Update Sustainable Opportunities Acquisition Corporation (SOAC) overnight announced that its shareholders had approved the merger of DeepGreen Metals Inc. and SOAC, to create TMC The Metals Company Inc. (TMC).

The transaction is expected to close as promptly as reasonably practicable, but in no event later than the third business day following the satisfaction (or waiver) of the closing conditions between SOAC and DeepGreen.

In connection with the closing of the transaction, TMC expects to receive approximately USD$ 137.3 million in cash prior to transaction fees.

Approximately USD$ 110.1 million of the proceeds from the private placement (original commitments were USD$ 330 million) have been received to date. DeepGreen intends to waive the closing condition that the aggregate transaction proceeds shall be equal to or greater than USD$ 250 million.

With the expected proceeds, DeepGreen believes that the combined company will have the funding required to reach its previously stated key milestone of permitting to advance commencement of commercial production.

Overnight the SOAC share price (SOAC US) closed on the NYSE at USD$ 11.69. The SOAC press release can be found on the SEC website at: sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001798562/000121390021046802/ea146779ex99-1_sustainable.htm

Our weekly and monthly NTA announcements will not include the full value accretion of the DeepGreen transaction until TMC lists. We will keep CDM shareholders informed of the progress of this listing through ASX announcements.

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Valuation of $1.360
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Added 3 years ago
Scroll down for latest update... 29-Dec-2020: Cadence Capital Limited (ASX Code: CDM) - which is a LIC (listed investment company) that I hold shares in - had an estimated Pre-Tax NTA (net tangible assets per share) on 24th December 2020 of $1.00. Their Post-Tax NTA was $1.13 vs their SP (share price) of $0.86. Their top 20 positions - in alphabetical order - at the end of November 2020 were: Alphabet Inc (GOOG US) AP Eagers Ltd (APE) ARB Corp Ltd (ARB) Carsales.com Ltd (CAR) Costa Group Holdings Ltd (CGC) Credit Corp Group Ltd (CCP) Deepgreen Metals (a Pre-IPO investment in the Materials sector) Electro Optic Holdings Ltd (EOS) Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC) Macquarie Group Ltd (MQG) Money3 Corp Ltd (MNY) NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) Pinterest Inc (PINS US) Pointsbet Holdings Ltd (PBH) Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US) Redbubble Ltd (RBL) Reece Ltd (REH) Resimac Group Ltd (RMC) Shine Corporate Ltd (SHJ) Uniti Group Limited (UWL) As well as holding CDM shares (as well as shares in a variety of other LICs and LITs), of CDM's top 20 positions listed above, I hold shares in ARB and UWL directly. What makes CDM different to the majority of other LICs that we have to choose from on the ASX is their dual focus on Australian and US stocks. You can see that there are 4 US stocks in their top 20 - Alphabet (who own Google), NVIDIA, Pinterest, and Qualcomm. Karl Siegling, who runs Cadence Capital (CDM) had a great run for a number of years in which his LIC traded at a very healthy premium to NTA, often over 30% above NTA, due in no small part to CDM's reliable dividend stream, and then... starting from around 4 years ago, he went through a very rough patch where the LIC seriously underperformed due to two main factors. The first was his continued backing of Melbourne IT, which changed its name to ARQ Group, and is now Webcentral Group (WCG). Melbourne IT was either CDM's largest or second largest position for a number of years and they lost quite a lot of money by riding them down, which went against Karl's own trading rules. Karl's trading rules are the second main reason for the underperformance that CDM experienced from November 2015 through to March 2020, a period during which CDM went from $1.55/share to $0.49/share. Karl uses both fundamental and technical analysis - much like Carl Capolingua at Think Markets - although Carl C primarily uses TA, whereas Karl S primarily uses FA, with TA for assistance with timing (when to buy/sell). Karl S had rules that included that he always bought in tranches, that he could only buy when a stock was rising, and that he automatically reduced positions or sold out when the stock was falling. However he clearly had some exceptions to or exemptions from those rules with particularly high-conviction companies like Melbourne IT (later becoming ARQ and then WCG). Those exemptions would have been fine if his high conviction had been better placed of course, such as it was with Macquarie Group (MQG), another high conviction position that has always featured in CDM's top 20 (including now, unlike WCG which has thankfully dropped out of the top 20). Back in those days MQG was usually also either CDM's #1 or #2 position (as a percentage of their portfolio). Nothing wrong with that - MQG has been a wealth winner over most decent investing timeframes you care to look at. However when markets got choppy and particularly volatile, particularly around the Brexit vote in mid-2016 and the election of Donald J. Trump later that same year, and the periods of increased share market volatility experienced in 2017 and 2018 in particular, Siegling found himself "shaken out of" a number of positions due to his trading rules that caused him to sell due to share prices dropping in positions he held, only to find they bounced straight back up again when he had a smaller position or had sold out. He complained in his newsletters about "whipsawing" share prices and the detrimental effects they were having on his (CDM's) performance, but assured us that his system had worked very well in the past and would do so again in the future when things settled down again. Fortunately, Karl later realised that volatility had become the "new normal" and he changed his own tactics. However, by the time he made those changes, his fund had seriously underperformed for a number of years and CDM was trading at a significant DISCOUNT to their NTA instead of at a significant PREMIUM to NTA (as they had done prior to November 2015). Have a look at their 5 year SP graph for an idea of how far down they have fallen - up until late March this year. Since March this year, we have seen a steady and strong and sustained rise in CDM's NTA and their SP, and I believe that the gap between their SP and their NTA will continue to close and they could potentially return to trading at an NTA-premium in time, as often happens when a LIC performs well for a good period of time - AND provides reliable fully franked (FF) income as well. Their dividends have reduced from 11c (FF) in 2015 to 4c (FF) in 2020, but I think those divs have now bottomed and will be at the very least maintained and probably gradually increased again from here. At 4c pa, they provide a 4.6% yield plus franking (6.6% when grossed up to include the full value of those franking credits) which is a little better than BKI and a lot better than MLT, ARG or AFI (those "big 3 LICs" are all currently yielding less than 3.7% FF) and I would also argue that Cadence Capital (CDM) have a much more exciting portfolio than those other 4 with a lot more potential upside in the near to mid term. I also know that Karl Siegling is a lot more active than BKI, Milton, Argo or AFIC are, and good active management can really add value I believe. Anyway, just thought it was worth sharing these thoughts as CDM has fallen off a lot of people's radars over the past 4 years, and I think they are one to either watch or own shares in (as I do) over the next little while - as Karl has now turned the performance around and is winning again. And his CDM portfolio looks pretty good, for the most part. *** Update: 18-Aug-2021: Net Tangible Assets (NTA) per share as at 13th Aug 2021 was $1.16 Pre Tax and $1.23 Post Tax. Those numbers do not include the accretion of the DeepGreen Metals transaction announced on 5th March 2021 - see here: https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02350215-2A1285263?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4 And for their 30th June update on DeepGreen: https://cadencecapital.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Announcement-of-DeepGreen-Metals-Investment-update-30-June.pdf In a nutshell, Cadence Capital Limited (CDM) invested in DeepGreen Metals several years ago. DeepGreen Metals was planning to list on the Canadian stock exchange (TSX) at that time. That proposed listing was delayed for several reasons, but has now been replaced with a much larger intended listing on New York Stock Exchange. CDM's DeepGreen Metals investment represented approximately 2.8% of their portfolio at 5th March 2021, and was valued then (and still is valued by CDM today) at the weighted average cost of the most recent purchases made in FY2020. The proposed listing is at a valuation substantially higher than that however. CDM said in March: "The transaction reflects a pro forma equity value for The Metals Company (TMC) of approximately US$2.9 billion and enterprise value of US$2.4 billion. The recent raising of US$ 330 million was done at a price of US$10 per share. Our investment is currently valued at US$1.38 per share. Upon listing this would equate to a substantial uplift in Pre and post tax NTA for CDM shares. This transaction is subject to shareholder and court approvals. Once the TMC shares are listed and trading freely we will value this investment at market price." CDM have updated the market two days ago on DeepGreen - see here: https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02407330-2A1315758?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4 16 August 2021: "DeepGreen Metals Investment Update: Sustainable Opportunities Acquisition Corporation (SOAC) has lodged its definitive proxy statement/prospectus with the Securities and Exchange commission (SEC) (in the USA) in relation to its Merger with DeepGreen Metals Inc. (DeepGreen). SOAC shareholders will be holding their shareholder meeting on 3rd September 2021 to vote on the merger. Subject to the approval by SOAC’s shareholders and the satisfaction of other customary closing conditions the newly merged entity The Metals Company Inc. (TMC) is expected to begin trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol “TMC” shortly thereafter." To account for that hidden value that will be unlocked once DeepGreen lists and the CDM position in DeepGreen gets revalued within the CDM portfolio to DeepGreen's market price - instead of the current cost price - I've added 10 cents/share to CDM's stated 13-Aug-2021 pre-tax NTA of $1.26/share to get my $1.36/share valuation for CDM, but I suspect that is too conservative. It'll do however. Unfortunately, I'm not currently holding this one in RL or in SM. They've done very well however, and it's been a belter of a year for Karl Seigling's LIC, after a few rather ordinary ones. CDM traded in a range between $1.20 and $1.55/share from mid-2012 through to mid 2018 (so, for 6 years), then fell from around $1.34 in mid-August 2018 to finish 2019 at just 75 cents/share. They then bottomed out at something like 38 cents per share in March 2020 (their Covid-19 low). It's been all up since then however, although even though their one-year graph looks spectacular, they are still trading at just $1.23/share, so at the lower end of that previous 6-year trading range, and below their highs (of $1.55 in December 2015). Still - there's some value there I reckon. Not enough to make me jump back on them at this point, up here, but it is there. Something to be aware of is that they do occasionally have some short positions, and they are currently short Appen (APX) - as one of their top 20 positions, or at least they were as at July 31st, 2021. - See here: https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02406010-2A1315099?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
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Valuation of $1.320
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Added 3 years ago
Why I like and think there is some value in this Lic. Transparency Weekly NTA 10% discount to Post Tax NTA Prudent Capital Management through Buy Back Record Profit AT 75M 336 MC K S Director active Buyer This Kicker is Deep Metals Holding 2.8% of portfolio on my calculations and happy to be corrected Cost of holding $1.38 pre Listing Raising done at $10.00 thus providing floor, thus at $10 added value to NTA is 79M and based on outstandings puts NTA at $1.32 and listing is expected this quarter.
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#H1 FY2021 Results
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Added 3 years ago

17-Feb-2021:  Media Release- Record Half Year Profits and Interim Dividend

plus:  Appendix 4D Half Year Report to 31 December 2020

Cadence Capital Limited (ASX: CDM):  Record Profits & Interim Dividend

Half Year Results to 31 December 2020:

  • Record Profit before tax of $68.7m
  • Record Profit after tax of $48.5m
  • Fund gross performance of 27.7%, outperforming All Ordinaries Accumulation Index by 12.0%
  • 2.0c fully franked Interim Dividend payable on the 13th May 2021
  • Annualised Yield of 4.5% fully franked (6.5% gross including franking)
  • CDM at a discount to NTA
  • Continuing on-market share buy-back for up to 10% of CDM shares

Sydney, 17th February 2021: Cadence Capital Limited (ASX: CDM) today announced a record half year profit after tax of $48.5m. Karl Siegling, Chairman, said “The Company has had a strong start to the year with the portfolio up 27.7% in 1H21, outperforming the All Ordinaries Accumulation Index by 12%. The top contributors to performance during the first half were Resimac, Pinterest, Lynas, Money3, AP Eagers, Pointsbet, Credit Corp, ARB Corp, Redbubble, Qualcomm and Reece. The largest detractors from performance were short positions in Wisetech Global and Jumbo Interactive.”

Karl Siegling noted, “It is pleasing that this strong performance has been delivered across both new and existing positions, while the fund has been on average 80% invested over the past six months.”

Karl added, “The Company has made significant progress on its strategy to improve the liquidity and reduce the concentration risk of the portfolio. Currently, more than 78% of the portfolio is able to be liquidated within one week, and over 87% of the portfolio within a month. The company currently holds around 55 positions with the largest position around 7% of the fund. Approximately 63% of the funds’ positions are invested in Companies with a greater than one billion dollar market capitalization.”

Fully Franked Interim Dividend

The Board is pleased to announce a 2.0 cents per share fully franked interim dividend. This equates to a 4.5% annual fully franked yield, or an 6.5% gross yield (grossed up for franking credits) based on yesterday’s closing CDM share price of $0.885. The Ex-Date for the dividend is the 29th April 2021. The payment date for the dividend is the 13th May 2021. The dividend re-investment plan (DRP) will not be in operation for this interim dividend as the Company’s shares are currently trading at a large discount to the underlying NTA.

Share Price and Discount to NTA

The Company’s share price discount to NTA has been improving from the nearly 40% discount reached at the panic lows in March 2020. The Company’s share price is now up more than 150% (including dividends) since the March lows of 35 cents, which was below cash backing. The Company’s tax asset per share is currently around 10 cents, from around 18 cents per share at FY20 year end. The Company can utilize this tax shield as and when it so choses to.

Karl Siegling said, “We remain strongly focused on continuing to reduce CDM’s discount to NTA. The Company has continued to implement its on-market share buy-back which increases the NTA per share for all existing CDM shareholders. The Company has now bought back 22.7 million shares for total consideration of $16.7m or $0.74 per share. Board and management, who are the largest investors in the Company, continue to add to their position in CDM.”

Karl Siegling added, “The current discount to NTA presents an attractive entry for investors to purchase a Listed Investment Company with a good long-term track record of performance and of paying substantial fully franked dividends”

Outlook

Karl Siegling continued, “The Australian market is approaching all time highs after a strong finish to 2020. Corporate profits are rebounding strongly out of the government induced lockdowns with businesses and households having built up significant savings through this period that is finding its way back into the economy. The better-than-expected corporate earnings recovery combined with ongoing central bank and government stimulus and near zero percent interest rates is driving significant demand for financial assets and is encouraging investors to take risk. We have come a long way from the panic in March and are seeing new investor euphoria in certain parts of the markets.”

Karl Siegling added, “While overall conditions remains supportive for equities, maintaining high liquidity for the portfolio remains a focus and will allow us to adjust to any changes in market conditions.”

Karl Siegling

Chairman, Cadence Capital Limited

--- ends ---   click on the 2nd link at the top for more

[I hold CDM shares and I'm happy with the way they are tracking now.  Since being coronered back in March, their SP trajectory has been all North East at a steady clip.  You can't ask for much more in a LIC (listed investment company).  Diversification, steady income, and a rising share price.  All good.  MUCH better than they were in 2019 when it was all South East.  And there are some decent US stocks in the CDM portfolio as well as a good mix of Australian companies that are quite varied by size and type.]

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#Monthly Reports
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Last edited 4 years ago

12-Oct-2020:  INVESTMENT UPDATE - September 2020

I recently mentioned here that I thought that CDM may have reduced or exited Webcentral Group (WCG, formerly ARQ Group, and before that they were called Melbourne IT), but they do mention (below) WCG as one of their better performers in September, so they clearly do still hold them:

Cadence Capital Limited returned a negative gross performance of 0.3% in the month of September, compared to the All Ordinaries Accumulation Index which was down 3.4% over the same period. The fund has had a good start to the new financial year, returning 13.2% - outperforming the All Ordinaries Accumulation Index by 12.1% during this period.

The largest contributors to performance during September were Resimac Group, Webcentral Group, Pinterest Inc, Citadel Group and Shine Justice Ltd.

The largest detractors from performance were EML Payments and Credit Corp Group.

The Company will be releasing its September webcast in the coming weeks. This webcast will give shareholders an update on the fund’s performance, dividends, its current portfolio positioning, discount to NTA, current investment themes and market outlook.

In August 2020, the Company announced its full year results and a 2.0 cents fully franked final dividend. This brought the 2020 fully franked full year dividend up to 4.0 cents per share equating to a 5.7% annual fully franked yield, or an 8.1% gross yield based on the CDM share price on the date of the announcement. The Ex-Date for the dividend is the 19th October 2020 and the payment date for the dividend is the 30th October 2020. The dividend re-investment plan (DRP) is not in operation for this final dividend as the Company’s shares are currently trading at a large discount to the underlying NTA per share of the Company. The Company has implemented an on-market share buy-back which increases the NTA per share for all existing Cadence Capital Limited shareholders.

At 30 September 2020, the Company was 78.0% invested.

--- click on the link above for the rest of the report ---

[I hold CDM shares.]

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