31-August-2021:  Euroz Hartleys have downgraded CTI Logistics (CLX) from a "Spec Buy" to a "Hold" and maintained their $0.94/share PT.  For the update from their analyst, Seth Lizee, check out the attachment.

Brief Extract:

"We have updated our forecasts post these results; We maintain our $0.94/sh Price Target, however, in light of negative earnings momentum in the short term we have downgrade our recommendation to a Hold. We view the key risk to our recommendation being continued abnormal operating conditions, which could generate positive earnings momentum in the short term."

Disclosure:  I do not hold CLX shares.

02-Mar-2021:  Euroz Hartleys: CTI Logistics Ltd (CLX): Mighty 1H Results

Analyst: Seth Lizee - Associate Research Analyst, +61 8 9488 1414

Recommendation: Speculative Buy, Price Target: $0.94/sh (up from $0.85/sh)

Mighty 1H Results

Investment case

CTI reported robust 1H results, delivering $17.8m in underlying EBITDA, exceeding our forecasts. This beat is mostly the result of stronger than expected margins in the transport and logistics segments. We continue to look towards a softer second half (EBITDA), in line with a traditional 55/45 split, however with upgraded full year earnings expectations. Nevertheless, we maintain our view of margins normalising in FY’22 and beyond in anticipation of abnormal COVID-19 operating conditions easing. As a result of these improvements we have upgraded our Valuation and Price Target.

Our investment case is predicated on CTI driving earnings growth through organic growth, operational efficiencies, and maximising asset utilisation. We believe if CTI can deliver on our earnings forecasts that the stock can trade up.

We maintain our Speculative Buy recommendation with an updated $0.94/sh. Price Target

Key points

• Financial highlights:
  • $118.6m Revenue (+8.0% pcp)
  • $19.8m Reported EBITDA (+75% pcp)
  • $17.8m Norm. EBITDA (vs. $16.7m ESHL Estimate)
  • $5.2m NPAT (+297% pcp)
  • $3.5m Norm. NPAT
• Strong operating conditions broadly the result of continued growing demand for transport and logistics services across Australia
• CTI received $1.3m in JobKeeper during the H
• NTA increased 12.3% HoH to 73.1cps (from 65.1cps)
  • 70.6cps Fully diluted (+12% HoH)
• CTI has declared a 2.0c fully franked dividend for the H (vs. previous 2.0cps FY’21 EHSL forecasts)
• Reduced net debt by $7.9m to $28.7m (ex. Lease liabilities), finished the H with:
  • $6.3m Cash
  • $35.0m Borrowing
• We maintain our Speculative Buy recommendation with an updated $0.94/sh. Price Target.

CTI Logistics Ltd, Year End: 30 June

• Share Price: 0.83 A$/sh (0.85 on 1-Apr-2021)
• Price Target: 0.94 A$/sh
• Valuation (DCF): 1.17 A$/sh
• WACC: 10.0%
• Terminal Growth: 2.5%
• Shares on issue: 78 m, diluted
• Market Capitalisation: 64.5 A$m
• Enterprise Value: 154.3 A$m
• Cash (1H): 6.3 A$m
• Debt (inc. Lease liab.): 96.1 A$m

Click on the link at the top for the full report, or open the attached file below.

30-Nov-2020:  Euroz Hartleys Securities: CTI Logistics Limited (CLX): Speculative Buy - Initiation of Coverage

Analyst: Seth Lizee, Recommendation:  Speculative Buy

• Share Price 0.75 A$/sh
• Price Target: 0.85 A$/sh
• Valuation (DCF): 1.07 A$/sh
• WACC: 10.0%
• Terminal Growth: 2.5%
• Shares on issue: 78 m, diluted
• Market Capitalisation: 58.3 A$m
• Enterprise Value 152.5 A$m
• Cash: 7.6 A$m
• Debt (inc. Lease liab.): 101.8 A$m

Initiation of Coverage

Investment case

CTI Logistics Ltd (“CTI”) is a Perth based transport and logistics company with a large WA exposure and a wider national presence. The company’s various brands provide everything from couriers and taxi trucks to warehousing and distribution solutions.

Our investment case is predicated on CTI driving earnings growth through organic growth, operational efficiencies, and maximising asset utilisation. We believe if CTI can deliver on our earnings forecasts that the stock can trade up.

We Initiate coverage of CTI Logistics Ltd with a Speculative Buy recommendation and $0.85/sh. Price Target, implying 13% upside.

Key points

• Earnings Growth – We are forecasting ~$3.0m in NPAT in 2021, a material step-up from $0.8m (adj. NPAT) in 2020. On balance we are expecting a flat 2022, however we forecast continued growth in 2023 and beyond. We see considerable earnings potential in the business, we believe management can achieve this through organic growth opportunities, greater efficiencies, and maximising asset utilisation.
• Leverage to WA Recovery – CTIs overweight exposure to WA leverages the business to an economic recovery in the state. Although, recent recovery turnaround was delayed as a result of COVID-19, we remain optimistic of positive operating conditions beyond the pandemic.
• Fixed Asset Backing –CTI has a 0.63/sh. NTA, this is supported by $0.87/sh (book value) in property and building assets held on the balance sheet. We view this fixed asset backing as backstop in the company’s value and share price. CTI trades at a minor premium to its NTA, although still below longer term levels.
• Discount to Valuation – CTI trades at a 12% discount to our $0.85/ sh. valuation. We believe our equally blended discount cash flow (DCF) valuation and NTA captures both the lower bounds of CTIs value, underpinned by hard property assets, whilst accounting for the longer-term value potential of the business.

--- click on the link at the top to view the full Euroz Hartleys initiation of coverage report on CTI (CLX) ---