Opthea will be reinstated to the ASX today after the spectacular failure of its Phase 3 trial for wet age related macular degeneration. 

Mercifully, this reinstatement has happened prior to the 30/6/26, so shareholders will be able to claim their monster tax losses this year as they watch the share price crashes 90% or so today.  

As at the end of March Opthea had $31m in the bank and intend to purse a rare lung disease called lymphangioleiomyomatosis. A condition so rare everyone is happy with the unpronounceable name lymphangioleiomyomatosis since no one ever needs to say it anyway. 

Opthea management intend pursing this line of research for 18months and budget to spend $13m. Hopefully the remaining $18m will be spent on trauma counselling for Opthea shareholders. 

Predictably the Opthea name will be put to the sword and subject to a shareholder vote, will be renamed Ceryvyn Therapeutics Ltd.    I can't wait to be a part of Ceryvyn Therapeutics Ltd as it: "....pursues meaningful long-term shareholder value creation". 

Yesterday at 10:41am Opthea (OPT) released it much anticipated results its Phase 3 trial of the drug Sozinibercept for the treatment of wet Age-related Macular Degeneration. The Phase 2 results had been very strong, so there was in the market high expectation the Phase 3 results would be positive. 

Instead it was a shocker, with not even the positive secondary end points to give shareholders a glimmer of hope.  It is so bad the $730m market cap company (at 60 cents the last close last week) reported:  “There was no numerical difference observed in the key secondary endpoints. Sozinibercept combination therapy was well tolerated.”   

I don’t know about the second sentence, because after reading Scoonie had to be helped back on his chair after suffering a brain spasm.

Whilst OPT currently has around US$110m of cash, the cost of the trials have been so high and raising cash over the years so onerous, OPT have ended up with an obligation to their financiers of around $1b. So it looks like curtains for OPT.

This has all been reported today in the AFR:

RPL OPT ASX: Phil King’s Regal Partners’ shareholders fear biotech Opthea’s poor clinical trial results

This will be a wake-up call for any self-assured investors in biotechs with drugs in clinical trial. Particularly harmful in the current risk off environment.

The largest OPT shareholder was Regal, headed by Phil King with a holding of around 30%, who now looks to be sitting on losses of around $220m. If you are around Regal HQ in Macquarie Place in Sydney today and you see an overweight, balding elderly man with a rat-fucked look in his eye, that will be Phil.    Or Scoonie.