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XXXXXX
Average Intrinsic Value
XXXXXX
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#ASX Announcements
Added 2 months ago

Suspension of trading to be lifted Thursday 16/04/2026, with a webinar delivery of HY26 results at 8:30am [ACST]

I am interested to see how the market responds but am anticipating a sharp dip purely on sentiment after the lengthy pause on trading which highlights a governance issue and liquidity risk to investors.


My analysis on the H1 FY26 report:

Positives:

  • Positive operating cash flow ($10.5m)
  • Relatively stable underlying EBITDA at ~$24.7m
  • Industry tailwinds (which I see as part of their mote) - chemical handling, hazardous logistics, and waste treatment are structurally growing sectors and DLG has a large footprint.
  • Integrated business model (manufacturing + logistics + environmental) supports an all-in-one service which promotes customer 'stickiness'

Negatives:

  • EBIT collapse (from +$5.9m to -$10.5m) - in part due to large impairments
  • Large impairments ($16.9m) signal prior capital misallocation
  • Auditor qualification = a major governance red flag
  • ASX suspension history which poses a liquidity risk for shareholders if they do it again. (In their defence they did have a change of Company Secretaries in Oct-Dec, so there may have been some underlying administration issues)
  • Large impairments ($16.9m) signalling prior capital misallocation


Balance Sheet & Liquidity:

strengths:

  • Net assets $330mil - (It's an asset-heavy company)
  • Net debt reduced by $16.4m & other debt refinanced to 2028, removing short-term solvency risk

Risks:

  • Low cash balance ($10mil) with a heavy reliance on asset sales and refinancing - (asset rich, cash poor).

- However, they still have Positive operating cash flow even in weak period.

  • They already had some business disruption attracting truck drivers, and now fuel issues will be added to that pressure.


Bull Case:

  • Trading below intrinsic value (imo) due to temporary impairments & market distrust (especially if there's a further drop tomorrow when the market reopens.
  • Strong asset backing + integrated business model
  • Clear earnings recovery catalysts (FY26 H2 + FY27 plant)

Bull case evidence:

What management has actually done (not just said they would do) that gives me a measure of good faith:

  • Balance sheet stabilisation - Refinanced into a $120m facility to 2028 removing immediate solvency risk
  • Asset rationalisation with the sale of non-core/loss-making assets
  • Willingness to take $16.9m impairments. imo this shows willingness to accept it's troubles in a large hit to fix the balance sheet. This provides a clean slate to get the house in order for future reporting (I hope)
  • Capex with clear strategic logic. The investment in Unanderra liquid waste plant appears to be aligned with core environmental strategy
  • Operational reset. ERP rollout + warehouse consolidation (targeting structural cost reduction)

Bull case could be further strengthened if the audit issues get fully resolved & earnings normalise

Bear Case:

  • Governance concerns & liquidity risk may deter institutional investors
  • Earnings visibility is low
  • Execution track record currently weak
  • Balance sheet not robust enough for further shocks
  • Turnaround may take longer than expected
  • Fuel prices impacting logistics segment.

Bear Case signalling:

  • Audit history
  • Revenue decline despite “integrated model” narrative Indicates cross-sell thesis not yet fully realised.
  • Prior execution inconsistency. Environmental division collapse suggests poor integration or weak operational controls. (I suspect the latter)


In summary DGL is only suited to risk-tolerant investors seeking turnaround upside. It is not one for the risk-adverse or weak stomached that don't have the temperament to hold in a rough patch. It also requires a bit of optimism and faith in management to improve governance and steer the business in the right direction.

My probability assessment is that it's more likely to turn around than not. They've got market demand and a fairly robust mote in their industry. What they lack is trust in management and adherence to governance requirements.

  • Successful turnaround (sustainable EBIT growth + clean audit): ~60%
  • Partial recovery (stabilises but low returns): ~25%
  • Failure / value erosion: ~15%


Bottom line:

DGL is a high-risk, medium-probability turnaround with asymmetric upside - but only if management execution finally matches strategy.


Disc: Held IRL - I'll reassess my valuation tomorrow after the investor webinar, but I'm currently planning on holding and potentially topping up depending on the webinar and what the market does tomorrow.


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Valuation of $1.000
Added 3 months ago

DGL is not an overly sexy company.

It provides formulation and manufacturing for a range of potentially hazardous and reactive chemicals, warehousing & distribution of these chemicals including transport and warehousing, and the disposal or recycling of chemical products.

It is founder led by CEO Simon Henry (26yrs going strong)

Currently suspended pending an audit due in the coming weeks (late March 2026).

There's been a bunch of announcements, but I've tried to capture the key points here:

The (rather boring) financial highlights;

Sales revenue has remained relatively flat over the previous 3yrs.

EBITDA and NPAT was significantly down for 25fy, however this was due to once-off write downs of goodwill and P&E, purchase of new ERP, and some general restructuring costs.

They have a strong cashflow. Liquidity is in good shape, with assets easily covering current and non-current liabilities.

The CEO has made a few changes to improve financials, including;

> Discontinuing lead battery recycling due to not being financially viable

> expanding a liquid waste treatment facility that will include plastic recycling which shows high customer interest.

> New ERP to cover logistics, HR and Finance systems

> as at 10/03/2026 making the position off COO redundant. (by my calculations that could save circa $450 inclusive of salary, performance bonus and other HR related expenses)

There's also been senior management restructuring changes with a new Auditor- BDO, new CFO - Gagan Singh, and a new Independent NED - Liz Smith.

My Take:

Assuming the above mentioned changes are effective in reducing COGS and improving profit margin (and I have no reason to believe they wont be), with the continued nominal growth in net revenue, then I can see DGL turning back into profit territory in 2026 and beyond.

Bear: $0.58

Base: $1.00

Bull: $2.50

Disc: small holding IRL, not topping up until I see some traction in the right direction (not that I can while suspended anyway).





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#DGL price drop
stale
Added 4 years ago

AFR reported that it was because whilst profit was on track, cash flow was not. This article was published on Sunday:

DGL Group CEO defiant after market rout

http://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/dgl-group-ceo-defiant-after-market-rout-20220902-p5beup?btis

(for those of you that subscribe)

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#DGL price drop
stale
Added 4 years ago

Organic growth no longer there.... is my guess

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#DGL price drop
stale
Added 4 years ago

Why have so many shares of DGL been dumped on the market in the last few days causing the share price to drop like a stone?

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#Management
stale
Added 4 years ago

DGL update that the twisted wrist apology has been delivered.

I sold this a couple of weeks ago as this guy seems to have habit of getting himself bad press for stupid stuff.


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#Stock Popped
stale
Added 4 years ago

@Saiton

I think you'll find the "pop" was as a result of a recent buy recommendation by a stock picking service.


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#Business Model/Strategy
stale
Added 4 years ago

DGL is specialty chemicals and dangerous goods business. It was founded in 1999 by current CEO and Founder Simon Hengry. DGL Group operate from 26 sites in Australia and New Zealand, and has 140,000 tones of chemical manufacturing capacity. One of its big customers in Australia is the agribusiness group Elders Ltd. 

DGL’s services are offered through three divisions: 

Chemical Manufacturing 

DGL’s Chemical Manufacturing division produces its own range of specialty chemicals and undertakes advanced formulation and contract manufacturing on behalf of third parties. Operations are focused on deriving chemicals from complex reactions in controlled environments. Using internally developed intellectual property, the division manufactures trademark brands including the Hardman water treatment range, Alset and Chempro AdBlue.

Warehousing and Distribution 

DGL’s Warehousing and Distribution division offers transport, logistics and warehousing services focusing on dangerous and hazardous goods across Australia and New Zealand. The division also manages logistics and distribution for other goods including food, pharmaceutical products, agricultural products, security sensitive goods and temperature-controlled products. 

Environmental Solutions 

DGL’s Environmental Solutions division is focused on resource recovery and waste management. Its core activities comprise liquid waste treatment, end-of- life lead acid battery (ULAB) recycling and lead smelting, and refining. ULAB recycling is undertaken at two EPA licensed recycling facilities located in New South Wales and Victoria. The division relies on an established and mature collection network of suppliers located throughout Australia. ULABs are recycled in state-of-the-art recycling facilities which are highly automated. The primary outputs from the ULAB recycling process are lead products, scrap plastic and waste. 

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