Euroz Hartleys were right in their 17-Feb-2021 broker note/report which I posted a straw here on - see here (scroll down - it should be among the top couple of straws and is titled "#Broker/Analyst Views" and is dated 17-Feb-2021) - EH downgraded GGG from a Speculative Buy to a Hold and downgraded their Price Target from 52 cps to 20 cps based on the Greenland election being called and the number of parties that were openly opposed to GGG's Kvanefjeld Project going ahead. 

They said, "we highlight the possibility of an election outcome that could adversely impact GGG’s prospects of being granted an exploitation license for the Kvanefjeld Project."

Here were their key points:

• Greenland has printed an election for 6 April 2020;
• The Kvanefjeld project looks to be a central issue under the election;
• A number of political parties are openly opposed to the development of the Kvanefjeld project, largely owing to the extraction of uranium as a by-product (see here);
• One of these parties, the Inuit Ataqatigiits (IA) party, has advanced under recent polls (see here);
• Despite recent political developments, we note that the recently extended public consultation period remains underway;
• Company representatives are planning on further meetings in the coming weeks to continue the engagement process;
• Whilst acknowledging the uncertainties inherent with potential new coalition outcomes and the award of the exploitation license, the Kvanefjeld project’s sovereign risk has arguably heightened;
• We interpret the market’s reaction (down ~50% from late Jan’21) as reflective of the expectation that timelines and the ultimate outcome of GGG’s application for an exploitation license could be severely impacted by recent political developments;
• The sole revision to our DCF model subsequent to our last published note is the update of our model risk adjustment factor (reflective of equity dilution, funding, execution and sovereign risk) to 20% (prev. 40%);
• We set our Price Target at $0.20/sh (prev. $0.52/sh) and downgrade from a Speculative Buy to a Hold rating pending the outcome of the upcoming election.

On the day they released that report/note (17-Feb-2021), GGG's SP closed at 18.5 cps, so even then EH's 20 cps PT seemed optimistic.  Yesterday, as the election results were revealed, and GGG responded with their announcement, their SP dropped -45% from 16 cps to 8.8 cps.  They closed at 11 cps (cents per share) today.  On 25-Jan-2021 (10 weeks ago) they were 3x that, closing at 34 cps.

Sometimes, Broker reports are worth reading.

17-Feb-2021:  Euroz Hartleys: Greenland Minerals Ltd (GGG): Hold, Downgrade from Speculative Buy: Greenland Election Called

Analyst:  Steven Clark, Resources Analyst, +61 8 9488 1430

Recommendation:  Hold (Downgrade from Speculative Buy), Price Target: $0.20/sh (down from $0.52/sh)

• Share Price: 0.18 A$/sh ($0.16 on 19-Feb-2021)
• Price Target: 0.20 A$/sh
• Valuation: 0.24 A$/sh
• Shares on Issue: 1,349 m, (dil)
• Market Capitalisation: 241 A$m
• Enterprise Value: 204 A$m
• Debt: 0 A$m
• Cash: 36 A$m
• Largest Shareholder: Shenghe 9.4%

Greenland Election Called

Investment case

The Parliament of Greenland has called an election following last week’s withdrawal of the Democratic party from the governing coalition. Whilst our view of the potential of the Kvanefjeld Project remains unchanged, we highlight the possibility of an election outcome that could adversely impact GGG’s prospects of being granted an exploitation license for the Kvanefjeld Project. We believe there will be a time to own the stock on account of the strategic value of the deposit. However, we await dissipation of the project’s heightened sovereign risk, which we consider contingent on the outcome of the upcoming election. We downgrade to a Hold recommendation.

Key points

• Greenland has printed an election for 6 April 2020;
• The Kvanefjeld project looks to be a central issue under the election;
• A number of political parties are openly opposed to the development of the Kvanefjeld project, largely owing to the extraction of uranium as a by-product (see here);
• One of these parties, the Inuit Ataqatigiits (IA) party, has advanced under recent polls (see here);
• Despite recent political developments, we note that the recently extended public consultation period remains underway;
• Company representatives are planning on further meetings in the coming weeks to continue the engagement process;
• Whilst acknowledging the uncertainties inherent with potential new coalition outcomes and the award of the exploitation license, the Kvanefjeld project’s sovereign risk has arguably heightened;
• We interpret the market’s reaction (down ~50% from late Jan’21) as reflective of the expectation that timelines and the ultimate outcome of GGG’s application for an exploitation license could be severely impacted by recent political developments;
• The sole revision to our DCF model subsequent to our last published note is the update of our model risk adjustment factor (reflective of equity dilution, funding, execution and sovereign risk) to 20% (prev. 40%);
• We set our Price Target at $0.20/sh (prev. $0.52/sh) and downgrade from a Speculative Buy to a Hold rating pending the outcome of the upcoming election.

--- click on the link above (at the top) for the full EH report on GGG ---

22-Apr-2020:  Euroz:  Greenland Minerals Ltd (GGG:  $0.09) Speculative Buy