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#Euroz Hartleys were right
Last edited 3 years ago

Euroz Hartleys were right in their 17-Feb-2021 broker note/report which I posted a straw here on - see here (scroll down - it should be among the top couple of straws and is titled "#Broker/Analyst Views" and is dated 17-Feb-2021) - EH downgraded GGG from a Speculative Buy to a Hold and downgraded their Price Target from 52 cps to 20 cps based on the Greenland election being called and the number of parties that were openly opposed to GGG's Kvanefjeld Project going ahead. 

They said, "we highlight the possibility of an election outcome that could adversely impact GGG’s prospects of being granted an exploitation license for the Kvanefjeld Project."

Here were their key points:

  • Greenland has printed an election for 6 April 2020;
  • The Kvanefjeld project looks to be a central issue under the election;
  • A number of political parties are openly opposed to the development of the Kvanefjeld project, largely owing to the extraction of uranium as a by-product (see here);
  • One of these parties, the Inuit Ataqatigiits (IA) party, has advanced under recent polls (see here);
  • Despite recent political developments, we note that the recently extended public consultation period remains underway;
  • Company representatives are planning on further meetings in the coming weeks to continue the engagement process;
  • Whilst acknowledging the uncertainties inherent with potential new coalition outcomes and the award of the exploitation license, the Kvanefjeld project’s sovereign risk has arguably heightened;
  • We interpret the market’s reaction (down ~50% from late Jan’21) as reflective of the expectation that timelines and the ultimate outcome of GGG’s application for an exploitation license could be severely impacted by recent political developments;
  • The sole revision to our DCF model subsequent to our last published note is the update of our model risk adjustment factor (reflective of equity dilution, funding, execution and sovereign risk) to 20% (prev. 40%);
  • We set our Price Target at $0.20/sh (prev. $0.52/sh) and downgrade from a Speculative Buy to a Hold rating pending the outcome of the upcoming election.

On the day they released that report/note (17-Feb-2021), GGG's SP closed at 18.5 cps, so even then EH's 20 cps PT seemed optimistic.  Yesterday, as the election results were revealed, and GGG responded with their announcement, their SP dropped -45% from 16 cps to 8.8 cps.  They closed at 11 cps (cents per share) today.  On 25-Jan-2021 (10 weeks ago) they were 3x that, closing at 34 cps.

Sometimes, Broker reports are worth reading.

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#Election Response 9/4/21
Last edited 3 years ago

After their Trading Halt yesterday, Greenland responds to the Election Outcome

  •  New Greenland Government to form following a national election on 6 April 2021
  •  Inuit Ataqatigiit (IA) Party will negotiate with other parties to form a new coalition government  
  •  Greenland Minerals looks forward to working with the new government as it progresses development of its Kvanefjeld rare earth project.

This announcement lifts their Trading this stage it looks like the share price will hold at about 9cps?......maybe shareholders are waiting til after they find out who exactly the Coalition is? 

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#TH ~ Snap Election 8/4/21
Last edited 3 years ago

Greenland held a snap election on 6/4/21.  The Sydney Morning Herald Reports-

"Helsinki: Greenland’s main opposition party, which campaign heavily against an Australian company’s mining project involving uranium and other metals on the Arctic island, has emerged as the biggest party after winning more than a third of votes in an early parliamentary election.

The result of casts doubt on the mining complex at Kvanefjeld in the south of the Arctic island and sends a strong signal to international mining companies wanting to exploit Greenland’s vast untapped mineral resources.

The island of 56,000 people, which former US President Donald Trump offered to buy in 2019, is part of the Kingdom of Denmark but has broad autonomy.

With all votes counted on Wednesday (Greenland time), the left-leaning Community of the People party (Inuit Ataqatigiit) had secured 37 per cent of the votes, entitling it to 12 seats in the Greenlandic national assembly, the 31-seat Inatsisartut.

Its biggest rival, the ruling centre-left Forward (Siumut) party took the the second spot with 29 per cent of the votes, giving it 10 seats in the legislature.

In a victory speech, Community of the People chairman Mute Egede pointed to themes which made his party, running on a strong environmental agenda, to stand out among voters.

“There are two issues that have been important in this election campaign: people’s living conditions is one. And then there is our health and the environment,” said Egede, a 34-year-old native of Nuuk, Greenland’s capital, according to the Greenlandic public broadcaster KNR.

The result means a power shift and an end to Forward’s long reign at the top of politics in Greenland. Forward chairman Erik Jensen conceded the party’s defeat and congratulated Egede and his party on winning the election"....

GGG's Trading Halt Notice attached

GGG's shares already down 45% before they got to pause trading


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Added 3 years ago

This could be a belter.

However there are a number of risks as outline in the article I have copied from the economist.

In summary the locals are getting to vote on whether the mine goes ahead and the initial signs are not great that they will approve it. Inevitably, money and politics will be operating behind the scenes, so it might get over the line.

Most people sniggered when Donald Trump proposed buying Greenland in 2019, but he had a point. The world’s biggest island has a rich helping of rare-earth minerals, and the superpowers want them.

These 17 elements, ranging from scandium to lutetium, lurk in the depths of the periodic table and turn up in all things electronic. The renewable-energy revolution will also rely on them for power storage and transmission. On the darker side, weapons—including nuclear ones—need them too.

A new open-pit mine at the top of Kuannersuit, a cloud-rimmed mountain near the settlement of Narsaq in the south of the island, may provide a goodly chunk of the rare earths needed to ditch fossil fuels. So believes Greenland Minerals, actually an Australia-based company, which has been angling for the excavation rights for the past decade.

Greenland’s environment ministry has given a tentative go-ahead. A majority of parliamentarians have already declared themselves in favour of digging. In early February the townsfolk of Narsaq will hear representations from the island’s government; though a dependency of Denmark, Greenland enjoys self-government in most areas except defence and foreign relations. A consultation phase is to last, provisionally, until mid-March.

Residents of Narsaq welcome the opportunity to learn more and to have their say. Urani Naamik (“No to Uranium”), a community lobby, has strong support. Nobody wants (mildly) radioactive dust, an inevitable by-product, drifting down to settle on their town and pastures. Many worry about the lake of waste—a sludge of chemicals and discarded rock fragments—that mining would leave on top of the mountain.

But Greenland’s politicians are in a quandary. The country’s two largest parties both want full independence from Denmark, which currently provides half the territory’s annual budget. But they would then need to be self-sustaining. Greenland would depend on fish, tourism, fresh-water sales and minerals. The last is by far the most valuable.

Christian Schultz-Lorentzen, editor of Greenland’s Sermitsiaq newspaper, says a bigger long-term issue is who gets the mine’s spoils. Shenghe, a Chinese conglomerate, is the largest shareholder in Greenland Minerals. The Danish government, in a frenzy of Atlanticism, earlier managed to stop Chinese companies from investing in the expansion of two airports on the island. Will it preserve Greenland’s rare earths for nato?

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