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Last edited 7 months ago
PerformanceCommunity EngagementCommunity Endorsement
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#SM Meeting
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Added 7 months ago

As always, it is great to hear a CEO in the Smiling @Strawman Starchamber.

My takeaway from the discussion is that Jason has been pretty consistent over the three meetings, and I certainly share his disappointment at the lack of a positive response to the annual results, which were good.

However, $EVS remains on my watchlist for now, because I want to see some further confirmation of the ARR growth / revenue trajectory. Because of the huge, global, macro-theme around its ESG-aligned offerings, one thing holding me back is that I don't understand the competitive dynamics in its three verticals. For sure, customers are investing in all three areas, so at some point we have to see a more material uptick in sales.

In concept, $EVS might become a Baby Giant, so I remain interested. And, indeed, the FY23 post-COVID recovery in ARR-uplift is a positive sign that there is more than a story here.

I'm all done with numbers for this week, so instead I will use an analogy to try and convey my assessment.

I'm standing on the 5th floor of a skyscraper (>100 floors), with a row of elevators (ride opportunities) in front of me and a dozen passengers I have to direct to queue at each door to ride to the top. As I see each elevator rising up from the 3rd or 4th floor, I direct each passenger to wait at the door to board the lift. There are several other elevators already moving up to my floor, but I can't see when the $EVS "elevator" is going to arrive, as it is still down at the 1st or 2nd floor. So, I am directing my passengers ($$) to those doors where I've got the confidence they won't have to wait too long. (In my analogy, the payoff is bigger if you get on at lower floors, but is reduced if the elevator is too slow - if that wasn't clear).

OK, not sure if that works. But it is how I am reading things.

Disc: Not held in RL or SM

#Q3 sales update
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Added 12 months ago

@raymon68 has provided the details on $EVS.

I only observe in addition that with New ARR of $2.0m in the Q - the same level achieved in the PCP - that Total ARR is moving into decline for the fist time in recent periods, from $56.9m to $56.2m. That's not what you expect in a growth play.

At the last investor presentation, Jason Cooper spoke powerfully about the quality of the pipeline and we were led to expect that there would be strong wins upcoming. However, I wasn't convinced, and exited at the time. Today's report indicates this questionmark remains.

I remain on the sidelines for now, with $EVS still on my watch list. This just isn't showing delivery progress commensurate with the story and earlier management rhetoric.

Disc: Not Held

#Q2 FY23 update
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Added one year ago

In answer to @Strawman 's question, overall the meeting commentary isn't adding much to the written release - beyond lots of positive talk about "opportunities" and "prospects", with lots of words like "huge" and "significant".

Both Jason and Justin stated that they see no need for a capital raise and that they remain on track towards profitability this year. Justin stated that he has a high focus on "contract-to-cash" to ensure the receipts flow.

There was some reference to their under-estimating procurement timescales on new deals. One reason cited was concern in Europe over energy costs. Based on the what was written and said, then H2 should be a very strong one for new sales. If it is not, then that would indicate that Jason is look at the business through rose-tinted spectacles.

They are very excited about the reported national airspace deal, as they think this is setting a new approach to how countries are looking at managing their airspaces. We'll see.

I agree with @Rocket6 's characterisation of progress at EVS as a "grind".

I have recently exited my RL holding at $0.135 in the belief that SP will not move materially until there is some demonstrated momentum. Of course, things can change quickly with one large deal or a strong quarter. I'd certainly be happy to jump back on board and EVS moves to my Priority Watch List.

I will align by SM position provided there isn't any SP deterioriation throught the day. (Which this post presumably doesn't help!)

Disc: Held on SM; Not Held in RL


#Product Demo
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Added 2 years ago

I have just come off the $EVS demonstration today. It was well worth the time. The three products (Omni, Airport and Water) are each in their own way remarkable. With the strong environmental / sustainability / community licence to operate tailwinds, my sense is that they are well positioned for many years of growth.

How profitable this all is will come down to how scalable and adaptable the solutions are - but from the presentation the team seems to have these issues in clear view.

It would also be good to have a better sense of the competitive landscape, as this area is going to be massive, if it isn't already. (Any reading recommendations appreciated!)

I hope they will make the recording of the presentation available. Anyone interested who couldn't make it the contact, according to the ASX release, is Warrick.lace@envirosuite.com.

FY Financial Results are next week, Tuesday 23rd and 9:30am:

https://teams.microsoft.com/registration/NK2XVQWj206N92lr6AlLbQ,gxrlUa1CbkmJVdEH2NazsQ,w1imAu1fXEqYabZu9w2now,G4W9vXJxtUa5Pi8VPIIeYQ,Rx7jNPKR-UadgGNW16_CWg,Zc2beVndzkW3dcMli94N6A?mode=read&tenantId=5597ad34-a305-4edb-8df7-696be8094b6d

(P.S. It was also a welcome relief after sitting through 4 results calls today. My brain is fried!)

Disc: Held IRL and SM

#ASX Announcements
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Added 2 years ago
#Sep Monthly Meeting
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Added 3 years ago

#Sep Monthly Meeting

Really good discussion with Jason. Only one thing he said that concerned me was on capital allocation, and adding or acquiring capability on climate change. My concern stems from that the current scope: airports, omni and water is so huge (especially water), that adding carbon might lead to a loss of focus for what is still a very small firm with limited management bench strength and people.