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Last edited 5 years ago
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#Share price
stale
Added 5 years ago

Apropos of nothing, here's a comparison of share price movements for Flight Centre as measured from the pre-GFC and pre-Virus peaks.

Not sure what you can infer from it (maybe very little).

The company will likely experience its worst trading period ever, and that could extend for longer than first suspected. With $186m (unencumbered) in the bank, they have a strong balance sheet, so can endure for a good while -- but it will still hurt.

Except in the case of a extremely sharp and prolonged downturn in travel (lasting, say, more than a year), the current price is probably one that will deliver ayttractive gains when we look back in five years -- even if it goes a lot lower from here.

Just remember that it easily can. If we apply the GFC peak to trough drawdown to the most recent peak, it suggests shares could go as low as $7.36 (!)

I wouldnt fault long term buyers at the current price, but it's too spicey for me. Although that could change if prices keep falling.