April 23:

After the cap raise I've got the Market Cap at around $1.225 Bil based on todays SP.

Based on similar logic to the below (NTA won't change much), I get a pro forma valuation of around $1.5 Bil once the FUMM target is meant (circa end of CY23).

This is good upside, however....

It's not 100% clear whether the FUM target will be met via organic means or without debt. This makes it hard for me to pin down a reliable valuation.

At $3.30 you'd get about 30% upside if all FUM growth was organic and some cushion if it is not.

Jury still out.

Feb 23:

The consolidated reporting still makes the P&L a bit messy and actual cashflow hasn't been as strong so far this ear, due to less transactional income. The market has hated this.

Will be interesting to follow this one and see how things pan out. If they can use debt in an intelligent manner then I see no reason why the thesis below won't play out.

Dec 22: About $2.30 of NTA and a target of $10B AUM by the end of CY24.

That'd translate to in excess of $100 mil of Management/PM Fees by the time they clip the ticket on a few transactions etc.

A net profit margin of somewhere around 60% is probably quite achievable.

$60mil profit on multiple of 12x is $720 mil or about $2.40 per share.

Add that together and you've got about $4.70 but then you need to discount that back 2 years....

The balance sheet is pristine but the income statement is still a bit messy.

Will monitor going forward.