You might look at Kinatico and think they are going to face headwinds in a recessionary environment with unemployment possibly on the way up. I think this headwind misunderstands the business. KYP has some under-appreciated tailwinds particularly with labour governments state and federal mandating ever increasing quality and compliance in childcare, aged care and NDIS sectors, and also OH&S across all sectors. 

CEO Michael Ivanchenko. Impressed me with the CEO’s focus on cost control. Also suggested that Kinatico may be interested in sensible acquisitions with existing cash.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QNN64vIcG1c&t=6s

It should be profitable in FY2024 and beyond on an annualised basis. The CEO has affirmed the commitment to profitability. Consensus forecasts for FY2024 are around 2mil NPAT. I see this as a sensible forecast but I also see pathways where they beat this in FY2024 and beyond. Back of envelope valuation 12 cents at 20xNPAT in FY24 and expect EPS growth around 15% over 5 years.

It's not the most sexy business in the SAAS landscape, it won’t ever be a WTC or ALU, and it does not have the astronomic growth of some its micro SAAS peers. But it has carved out a (imminently)profitable little niche with $10.4mil cash in the bank, no debt and a nice runway ahead of it. They have shown that they are extracting additional value out of their existing customers and growing their customer base. SAAS revenue is humming along nicely. Ticking a lot of boxes.

I bought IRL at .7c. I still see some value at current price but will wait and see how it reports.

I expect a small loss .5Mill in FY2023 compared to a loss of 1.5Mil in FY22. There is every chance they could surprise with breakeven in FY2023.