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Last edited 4 years ago
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#Bear Case
stale
Last edited 4 years ago

Shares in creso have gone from 8c to 23.5c in the past 8 sessions, boosting the company's value by almost 200% or just over $100m.

Why?

In essence, because of a regulatory change in the EU that removes the 'narcotic' classification of CBD and allows it to be freely sold in the EU. And because (today) the US House of Reps passed the 'MORE' act which paves the way for decriminalistaion on a national level.

This is good news for sure, and should provide a favourable tailwind for Creso -- BUT, there's a long way to go before the company capitalises on these opportunities. It's also good news for every other player in this space, and there are a LOT of them.

And let's not forget that this is essentially a commodity product (although they will disagree).

The business generated $95k in customer reciepts last quarter and has an operating cash burn of ~$7.6m per annum (annualised). It has roughly $8m in cash left in the bank after a recent raise. (get used to that -- shares on issue have increased 10x since it listed...) 

I dont know the company well, there could well be some important insights that would justify these gains. But i suspect that there is a huge speculative element here.

Super early stage, far from proven, and trading on a price to sales ratio of AT LEAST 30 (on a forward basis assuming strong second half sales growth).

Good luck to holders, but waaaay too spicey for me.