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Last edited 2 years ago
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#Exiting
stale
Added 2 years ago

MEA is a tough stock to pick a side on! The current numbers are excellent and the rent roll alone plus cash easily justify the current market cap (~$61m). 

Moreover, I was taking a look at the REA results recently and they indicate the property market is still in reasonable health in terms of house price appreciation (HPA) and volume.

But, the market is essentially pricing MEA in a way that suggests the housing market correction will have them lose money over the next couple of years.

That seems to be the consensus view, but it all depends on how the real estate market actually performs and then how MEA manages its cost base and key talent. 

It's a business with a lot of operating leverage. That's helped them in the last couple of years but could work in reverse.

For me personally, if it wasn't for the leadership change, I'd be holding on (and possibly even buying more!). But, I decided to exit mostly due to John McGrath's track record. 

There are various views on McGrath online. Some respect his ability to grow the agency from scratch to where it is today. Others highlight his lack of education (I don't think he finished year 12 even, although that doesn't necessarily mean he is not smart!). And then the nail in the coffin for me was his gambling history. I just feel like that is a red flag that I shouldn't ignore. 

Perhaps I'm being a bit too emotional about it and not sticking to the financials, it is a tough one. Numbers are great. Macro is average at best. Management is somewhat questionable.

I'm moving to the sidelines for the time being.