My valuation is based on Orthocell’s Remplir product achieving a 10% share of the peripheral nerve repair procedure market by end of 2028. It seems that to do so in the US will involve almost wiping out the competitors products, with most surgeons already opting for trusty ol’ sutures over those. There could be some execution risk in first achieving this, and then, to go beyond what their competitors have done — to continue growing by incrementally gaining a higher percentage of those remaining procedures. This seems like effectively a new market. I need to do more research obviously, but I’m interested to know if the US products have initially had more market share and then lost it over the years because the products were so bad. It also raises the concern that the TAM that Orthocell is using is overstated. If so, perhaps I shouldn’t be assigning a growth multiple — because to capture just 10% of those procedures could mean most of the growth has already occurred. These slides below are from the same August 2024 presentation.