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# 5 ways to win
stale
Last edited 10 months ago

This one's strictly a small stake punt on a mining explorer. From what I can gather (disclaimer: I have no idea what I'm doing), $40m Red Metal have good low-hype, high-disclosure management and 5 sites, a couple of which are mid-exploration and therefore more than just patches of dirt:

  • Sybella is a giant rare earth patch in granite 20km from Mt Isa.
  • If they can prove out a cheap acid heap leach extraction method (testing underway, early indications = maybe), it might just have a monster mine life at low cost.
  • Low-hype geologist on youtube confirms 'massive tonnage, seemingly quite good extraction using relatively high PH which are all the things we want to see'
  • 40% stake in $56m Maronan Metal (ASX: MMA), a silver-lead project in Kloncurry, apparently a good location and they describe the project as a 'Cannington analogue'.

Here's some February conference slides for a starter.

315dc84c799bf99e7d00391021289cdd1baaa9.jpeg

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Valuation of $0.140
stale
Added 5 years ago
Latest updates are at the end. 27-Mar-2020: Red Metal (RDM) is one of the more active base metals explorers. They have a lot of drilling planned for this calendar year (2020) and some of it might actually go ahead, depending on how things develop. Anything that has to be deferred will just get done later (possibly next year). A quick look at their December quarterly report suggests that they'll need to raise some more money within the next 12 months, and that's an ongoing issue for companies like this with no income (unless they sell assets or get money from JV partners). They just keep burning through cash while they look for that big commercially viable deposit that will turn them into a multi-bagger. And they often never come. For that reason, not only is this company very high risk, they can NOT be regarded as an investment. They should be regarded as a punt or a trade. They often spike up on improved sentiment or because of positive drilling results, but that's usually the time to sell them, after buying them at times like now - when they're trading at multi-year lows (below 5c/share currently). If you want to roll the dice with a couple of speccy stocks in this area, then you could do worse than RDM & MEP (Minotaur Exploration, who found OZ Minerals' Prominent Hill copper/gold mine back in 2001), and from here you could double your money on one or both over the next year or three if you're patient enough, but there are certainly no guarantees of that. These are the sort of companies that can very easily go broke and "investors" lose everything they've put into them. These two have a history of scraping through the hard times and finding ways to keep on going. That track record could end at any time of course, but, like betting on horses, you can put on a blind bet, or you can study the form guide, and these two at least have some form. 25-Sep-2020: Update: Didn't RDM just blow right through that price target! It's heading back down to it now tho... I'll upgrade RDM's PT to 12 cps. After Minotaur (MEP), Red Metal is probably the second busiest listed base metals explorer here in Australia. Very sentiment and news driven share price. Highly speculative. I don't currently hold them. But they seem to trend well. 27-March-2021: Not trending well now, just trading sideways at the moment. Not much happening it seems - to get excited or to get despondent about. So the price isn't going far in either direction just at the momet. If I held them, I'd probably sell them at or above 14 cents/share and swap into MEP - Minotaur, which is much more exciting.
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