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Last edited 6 years ago
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#Bear Case
stale
Last edited 6 years ago

The agreement with franchisees will need to be made more attractive, and they will require greater support, which will impact profits.

Further, the size of the network will shrink as franchisees bail out and the company fails to find replacements. Based on Fairfax allegations, around 26% of domestic stores are up for sale!!).

Thus, a smaller network with less attractive economics.

Shares may seem cheap, but for very good reason. Even if management do stablise the business and return to growth, it will be off a much lower base and it's a process that could take years.

Not worth the risk

 

#Bull Case
stale
Last edited 6 years ago

Just for the skae of balance, here's a bullish view (although I am Bearish overall)

Whenever you have such a large franchise network, it is inevitable that you will have instances of failed and/or unhappy franchisees. For the master franchise to be successful -- and sustainably so -- you only need a majority of franchisees to perform sufficiently well. As such, there is the potential that these allegations from Fairfax are something of a ‘beat-up’.

When you go looking for unhappy franchisees, you will find them. And even those that are doing ok, will often claim that they need a better deal.

So, OK, RFG will end up owning a much smaller network, and likely at reduced profitability, but it is not going to zero. There's even some takeover potential if the price is low enough.

If you annualise second half FY18 guidance, this is a business generating ~$20m in underlying NPAT (but a huge statutory loss due to writedowns). If you apply a PE of 8, that's a share price of 87c.

Of course, things could well continue to deteriorate -- so buyer beware!

#Media articles
stale
Added 6 years ago

Retail Food Group has some explaining to do

AFR 26/2/18

The franchisee made it clear the main problem wasn't utilities but supplier kickbacks to RFG, rebranding costs and fees. "These are your priority. By suggesting that franchisees' problems are caused by utility prices will not make you any friends, trust me. Reduce the costs that RFG have ownership of and do it soon. Otherwise you will achieve nothing."

Link here

#Media articles
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Added 7 years ago
28/12/2017 Advertising funds across the $170 billion franchise sector need closer scrutiny. Adelle Ferguson

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#Media articles
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Added 7 years ago
18 December 2017 'It's like 7-Eleven': claims underpayment is rife at RFG By Adele Ferguson and Sarah Danckert "Part three of a Fairfax Media investigation into RFG and its franchisees has uncovered claims of widespread underpayment of wages, the deliberate underpayment of penalty rates and the use of families and friends for little or no money."

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#Media articles
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Added 7 years ago
13/12/17 Fairfax article calling for probe into franchise business models and greater franchisee protections

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#Media articles
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Added 7 years ago
"'Don't speak out': franchise giant RFG warns against complaining publicly" By Adele Ferguson and Sarah Danckert Retail Food Group, the franchisor of iconic brands including Brumby's, Donut King and Gloria Jean's, has issued a warning to store owners not to air their complaints in public or risk breaching their franchise agreement...

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#Media articles
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Added 7 years ago
"The colourful background of the man behind a franchise fortune" A piece on Tony Alford by Adele Ferguson and Sarah Danckert

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#Media articles
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Added 7 years ago
Fairfax article detailing franchisee distress

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#Media articles
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Added 7 years ago
Chairman pleads with shareholders not to lend shares to short sellers.

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