Companies can have positive announcements too it seems. =)

"Regis Resources Ltd (ASX:RRL, “Regis” or the “Company”) is pleased to advise that the New South Wales Department of Planning and Environment (DPE) has assessed the McPhillamys Gold Project (“the Project”) as approvable with conditions. In accordance with the prescribed process, DPE has now referred the Project to the Independent Planning Commission of NSW (IPC) for final determination. "

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-mcphillamys-achieves-major-approvals-milestone.7093546/?source=email

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=RRL

Between 5 and 8% of the float has been shorted since January according to Shortman. It has dropped over 1% since April 6, which is curious.

Have been two directors increase their stake recently. Smallish trades, but significant.

Had a look at these guys today. DCF model here - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NmgXyvSXOiua11X8cENRz_Sg9auhpfIiIKzu66p6R6k/edit?usp=sharing

Main project is Duketon, 30% stake in tropicana, and potential project at McPhillamy's that looks attractive at this gold price.

Tropicana looks like it will produce between 135-150k pa. for at least 10 years (though I'd guess 15+)

Duketon looks like it will be producing for at least 10 years, though they do need to find more gold here. They roughly look like they will produce 340-380k p.a.

Adding these up, I think we're looking at 500k oz/yr. Company is expecting an upper AISC of 1365 for next year.

There are a few nuisances in the balance sheets. 300m is owed for their purchase of Tropicana, which from what I can work out looks like it needs to be paid back in 3 years, but interest is negligible or < inflation (~bank bill something +2%). There is also 320k of bad hedging over the next 3 years, which at a 1700USD gold price will cost them ~240m.

I've estimated 460k oz this year, 480 in 23, and 500k from 2024 onwards, an AISC of 1365, a Gold price of 1700USD, conversion of 1.4, and a tax rate of 30%, subtracting the hedging and repayments over the first 3 years. Using a DCR of 10%, I get a value after 10 years of 1.6 bil. Run that for another 10 years and you get a NPV of 2.3 bil. I think these assumptions are probably mostly on the conservative end, though it is very much ballpark as it doesn't really consider corporate costs or depreciation/amortisation (which should be a benefit).

Current market cap is 1.4 bil.

Oh, and I haven't even mentioned McPhillamy's, which has approval risks, but seems quite attractive at this gold price. This could generate another 200k oz/yr after maybe 3-5 years (at a guess). McPhillamys I think (don't quote me, dyor, had a NPV @ 5% of 525m at a gold price of 1600aud on their pre feasibility study).

I think I tend to agree with Bear's assessment. If everything goes wrong, these guys are looking fairly valued, but there seems to be a lot of potential for upside. I may selling some GOR shares and buy these tomorrow.