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Another 50k director buying today… it’s either an incredibly coordinated IR exercise or consensus from management that SHL is undervalued
Quick DCF to better assess the opportunity. I have projected free cash flow increasing by 4% annually for the next five years. Using a discount rate of 10% (probably too high noting this is an established business, but want margin of safety), and noting shares outstanding of 495m, I arrive at a share price of $25.
If I was drop the discount rate to 9%, this bumps the valuation up to $30. Alternatively, if free cash flow growth is increased from 4% to 6%, fair value increases to $28.
I think I have been extra conservative with my principal assumption, and even then, I still reach a share price that is still well above today's price of $21.50.
With management guiding impressive EPS growth for FY26, an opportunity arguably exists to get this business at dirt cheap prices.
With a new CEO at the helm, I would love to see some buybacks at this price, but don't count on it.
Another 50k director buying

Director Kate Spargo has made a ~ $75k purchase on market.
AFR's Chanticleer has a feature on Goldschmidt - https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/the-quiet-doctor-who-built-a-16b-global-empire-20250925-p5mxyg
The longstanding CEO, Dr. Colin Goldschmidt, has decided to hang it up after more than three decades at the helm and will formally retire at the company's AGM in November.
His overall stewardship has been a success, despite the struggles in more recent years.
Probably a good time for a successor. The chosen one Dr. Jim Newcombe, is also an insider.

Looks a pretty solid result to me. Obviously the market expected better - down over 10% today
Their forward guidance is very positive "EPS growth up to 19%" for FY26, although less in constant currency terms
I hold some in Super. Solid, safe and well managed, although possibly a bit boring for SM. Upside is capped, because most revenue comes from governments. But of course this also caps the downside.
If you buy at the current price, you get a basically 4% partially franked dividend yield, plus steady high-single-digit growth. Pretty safe 10 - 15% annual return if you hold for a few years
Todays half year result looks to be solid for SHL, with a healthy 8.4% YoY growth in revenue and operating leverage leading to a 17.0% growth in Net Profit and 15.5% growth in EPS. Debt is well within covenant and below historic ratios, even with the LADR acquisition due to occur 1 July it is expected to stay that way.
Organic growth of 6.1% and full year EBITDA guidance of A$1.7-1.75b is maintained, yet the market has currently knocked 3% off the share price. The market as a whole is down 1% which will be a factor, but it seems the market was looking for a better result and with a PE in the high 20’s having high expectations.
I bought a little under a year ago on what was 12 month lows with a thesis that the comparable out of COVID were driving the price down, but Sonic remained a high quality and growth company that was a leader, hence justified a high PE. I expected the market to take time to realise this and re-price accordingly, with a year set a minimum holding which would be towards the end of March.
The price had been trading around my buy price for the last 6 months and I have recently been looking at selling to fund what I see as better opportunities. I will continue to review commentary on the result, but my first impression is it was fine and holding until at least the 12 month target is justified, but would exit if the price lifted 10% from here, seeing that as a good price and better opportunities for further upside elsewhere.
Disc: I own RL
Pretty stable, growth business. Has long term tailwinds for the need for increased testing for personalized medicine and potential for reduced costs due to AI. Further rollout global (organic and inorganic) plus some cost synergies to come through. Pretty recession proof earnings. Some earnings are regulated as the only detractor.
Going to use a dividend growth model as mature business, stable dividend growth in the past.

$1.04 in dividends (last interim and upcoming final).
Going to include the value of franking is $1.49 as i’m entitled to it.
Want at least a 10% return and think it can grow at 5%pa for the foreseeable future given the tailwinds.
1.49/(0.1-0.05) = $29.80
If I buy now I get the $0.62 dividend - plus franking gets $0.89 in a couple of weeks - gets me to $30.69 (29.80+0.89).
I'd like it cheaper (mid to high 20s) but for a defensive business think it's reasonably priced. Not going to make me rich overnight but good for the SMSF long term.
On market purchases recently by insiders also gives some comfort.
Methodology:
From June 21 financials, EPS TTM is 2.67.
Current PE TTM of 16.6 at SP of $46.
Given current COVID-19 testing volumes are increased over FY21, if this flows through to a 15% increase in earnings, we have EPS of $3.07, which at a PE of 16 gives us circa $49.00.
I don't see PCR testing keeping up this kind of volume indefinitely (even for travel purposes), so I'm preparing to hit the sell button as we get closer to $50. Probably in early January when we have an Omicron driven explosion in cases and associated disastrous headlines.
Disc: Held, but planning to sell soon and buy back in at a much lower price in future.
This will be short and sweet. I was recently speaking to an employee of a Sonic Healthcare subsidiary - who are doing a lot of the Covid-19 testing on behalf of many governments (lack of resources, specialists etc) - and they indicated governments were paying them a whopping $150 PER TEST. That is an insane amount....well at least I think so.
Disc: not held
H1 FY 2021 results
Strong balance sheet
Interim dividend $0.36 per share