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Last edited 6 years ago
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#Bear Case
stale
Last edited 6 years ago

The bull points for Telstra have been well outlined in this forum. I agree with the comments made. It appears oversold and will probably recover from these levels. I remain bearish for the following reasons:

  • Be careful of doing a DCF valuation on a company under serious threat from competition. How reliably can we forecast earnings into the future? More specifically: How much money can Telstra make selling a mobile plan, if TPG is offering it for $10? Telstra shares appeared reasonable value at $6.00, at $5.00, at $4.50, at $4.00, at $3.50…
  • Telstra is a low quality business. It has delivered mediocre returns for all long-term investors since its listing. Investing in Telstra today should be with the following philosophy - Deep value mindset (buy low and sell high)- or a turnaround story with changes in the business
  • There are opportunity costs to allocating capital to this turnaround story, especially in a bull market. There are too many business risks for it to be a reliable bond-proxy

Upside are some above average dividends and share price return to more normal levels

Downside is signficant further intrinsic value decline related to many business risks (competition, earnings hole, poor investments), and rise in bond yields