Was catching up on The Call from ausbiz for 13 July.

Howard Coleman from Teamninvest provided a succinct bear case for WTC, and I am paraphrasing:

Baseline. WTC is a $10B company at ~$30 per share, and on current earnings it has a PE of >100.

Bear case. WTC would need to roughly double its earnings (@80-100%) per year for 10 years. This would make it ~1000x bigger than it is now.

Is the logistics software industry (TAM) larger enough for one company (let alone one of this size) to be 1000x bigger?

The answer. Probably not, trending to no.

Implication. WTC is either fully valued or over valued at ~$30.