Episode 22: Season finale! Vista Group and reminiscences of a glorious raging bull market

Charlie Munger once said “show me the incentive, and I’ll show you the outcome“.  A great example comes from 1860s, when the British contracted ship captains to transport convicts to our sunny shores. Back then, the survival rate of those poor souls was a miserable 40%. Human rights weren’t exactly a high priority, but most still felt that allowing 6 […]

Strong growth and a large addressable market paint a bright future for this Aussie tech star

In a recent conversation on the Excess Returns podcast, NYU Professor Aswath Damodaran talked about his latest book, “The Corporate Life Cycle“, which argues that businesses, like people, age. They start young, grow with vigor, reach middle age, and then — no matter how hard they fight it — begin to slow down. This natural cycle, he argues, should guide how […]

Is it time to cut and run?

An unpopular perspective is an almost unavoidable requirement if you’re hoping to find a multi-bagger. If everyone shared your insight, and saw the value you recognize, it’d already be reflected in the share price. The consensus view may be cozy, but it’ll give you little opportunity for outsized returns.  What you want is a variant perception; an important but underappreciated insight into the […]

In preparing for this week’s update, I was considering rehashing an older piece I’d written a few years back. Why not? All the big ideas in investing are timeless and as relevant today as when they were first conceived.  (More to the point, I was running desperately short on time and — as usual — was struggling to think of something original […]

Last year was good to investors. The last decade even more so. And with markets at record highs there’s plenty of shareholders feeling pretty good about themselves — especially those that had any exposure to tech. But as we roll into a new solar orbit, it’s worth remembering the difference between process and outcome. The market demands a good deal […]

Are shares good value?