Author: Andrew Page

Last week I wrote about the dangers of “resulting”, and why process is more important than outcomes. It’s something I tend to bang on about because, well, I just think it’s a key to a successful and enduring investing career. But as a Strawman member pointed out to me recently, it begs the question: what actually constitutes a “good” process? For […]

We tend to judge a decision’s quality by its outcome rather than by the information available when it was made. It’s a bias professional poker player and author Annie Duke calls “resulting.” It’s an easy mistake to make, and a dangerous one. Especially in the game of investing where it’s not uncommon to see bad decisions rewarded, and good decisions punished. […]

The term “paradigm shift” is a bit wanky, but every now and then we do genuinely come across something that offers a wholly new way of thinking about and interacting with the world. And when they come along, or even seem to be coming along, they are something worth paying attention to.  That’s because, by their very nature, they’re going […]

Zoom out on any major developed-market index and you see a steady wealth-creation engine: a polite upward march fueled by human progress. It is a phenomenon hiding in plain sight, available to anyone with the vision and patience to seize it. Of course, such a panoramic view obscures the true nature of the journey. To the investor who has actually […]

The major market indices may still be hovering near all-time highs, but below the surface, there are more than a few stocks doing it tough. As highlighted recently, it’s mainly tech stocks that are bearing the brunt of investor pessimism, with concerns over AI-driven disruption knocking some former high-flyers down a peg or two. As a group, measured by the […]

Market history is a graveyard of great companies that were terrible investments. Not necessarily because that perception of ‘greatness’ proved unfounded, though that is common enough. But because people buy in at prices that are simply way too optimistic. “No matter how wonderful [a business] is, it’s not worth an infinite price” — Charlie Munger. The reality is that the stock […]

I hope you had the chance to switch off for a bit over the holiday break. We’re a bit like computers in that we tend to work a little better after the occasional reset. Or as da Vinci put it: “Every now and then go away, have a little relaxation, for when you come back to your work your judgment will […]

As the manic rhythm of the ASX begins to settle into its annual summer slumber, it’s a good time to step back from the screens and recharge our batteries. To that end, we’ll be taking a short break from our regular weekly correspondence over the coming weeks as we look to refresh and prepare for the year ahead. While the […]

There is an old joke that captures well one of the central errors of our time. It goes like this: Two economists are walking through the countryside when they spot a pile of cow manure. One turns to the other and says, “I’ll give you fifty thousand dollars if you eat a spoonful.” The colleague contemplates the utility function, accepts the […]