Author: Andrew Page

Market history is a graveyard of great companies that were terrible investments. Not necessarily because that perception of ‘greatness’ proved unfounded, though that is common enough. But because people buy in at prices that are simply way too optimistic. “No matter how wonderful [a business] is, it’s not worth an infinite price” — Charlie Munger. The reality is that the stock […]

I hope you had the chance to switch off for a bit over the holiday break. We’re a bit like computers in that we tend to work a little better after the occasional reset. Or as da Vinci put it: “Every now and then go away, have a little relaxation, for when you come back to your work your judgment will […]

As the manic rhythm of the ASX begins to settle into its annual summer slumber, it’s a good time to step back from the screens and recharge our batteries. To that end, we’ll be taking a short break from our regular weekly correspondence over the coming weeks as we look to refresh and prepare for the year ahead. While the […]

There is an old joke that captures well one of the central errors of our time. It goes like this: Two economists are walking through the countryside when they spot a pile of cow manure. One turns to the other and says, “I’ll give you fifty thousand dollars if you eat a spoonful.” The colleague contemplates the utility function, accepts the […]

A business is best thought of as a machine; one that takes various inputs (capital, commodities, people) and converts them into outputs (products/services). If you are interested in a company’s potential for growth, it helps to understand exactly how those inputs are converted to outputs. Furthermore, you need a sense of how demand for those outputs will change over time, […]

At a recent value investing conference, money manager Mohnish Pabrai, a self-described “shameless cloner” of Buffett and Munger, sat down for a fireside chat. In it, he shared wisdom that, while far from original, bears repeating. Indeed, the fact that Pabrai’s wisdom is essentially repackaged lessons from Berkshire’s dynamic duo is precisely one of his key messages. In investing, while […]

Big technological and structural shifts tend to hide in plain sight. When they do finally draw some attention, they tend to look like exaggerated hype. And most of the time that is exactly what they are. Even when a genuine shift is underway, progress feels painfully slow. The promise is always a touch out of reach. Something shinier shows up, […]

We at Strawman know that bigger isn’t always better. There are plenty of reasons for that, but one of the more enduring comes from William H. Whyte’s classic The Organization Man from 1956. His central point was that large institutions tend to nudge everyone toward the middle. The bigger the machine, the more it wants predictable cogs. Comfort goes up, […]

Ben Hunt, former hedge fund manager and creator of Epsilon Theory, once wrote that a bet is a tax on bullshit. It is a sharp and accurate reminder that opinions are free, narratives are endless and forecasts cost nothing to produce. Talk demands nothing. A bet, however, demands everything. It requires sacrifice. It forces you to risk something you value […]