Extraordinary returns come from extraordinary mis-pricings. And those only happen when most people hold a deeply flawed vision of the future.
The trouble is, the dominant view never feels unreasonable at the time. It usually seems obvious — self-evident, even. That’s precisely why so many people, including the seasoned pros, buy into it.
And let’s be honest: it takes a special kind of hubris to believe the consensus is not just wrong, but meaningfully so. Then, to top it off, you need a masochistic tolerance for looking like an idiot — potentially for a very long time — while holding your deeply contrarian stance.
So the challenge is twofold: first, spotting a non-obvious variant perception that you can support with cold, hard logic. And second, resisting your innate urge to conform.
Neither is easy.
If an idea is both correct and obvious, the market has already priced it in; expect mediocre returns. If it’s non-obvious but wrong, congratulations — you’ve just found a creative way to burn capital.
There’s no formula to follow here, but independent thinking, an obsessive curiosity and a preparedness to put in a lot of work are essential. A rare combo indeed.
And then there’s the need for strong conviction, but without stubbornness. Which is a razor-thin line to walk.
Without conviction, you’ll get shaken out by volatility. But if you’re too pigheaded, a small mistake can snowball into something catastrophic.
Like I said; not easy. Far from it.
But extraordinary returns don’t come from following the herd. They come from spotting the flaws in the consensus, backing your thesis with ruthless rationality, and surviving long enough to be proven right.
That’s the reward for doing the hard thing.
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