In a 2014 interview, Lloyd Blankfein, then CEO of Goldman Sachs and part-time Bond villain lookalike, was asked a simple question: How far into the future can you see?
Now, given Goldman’s reputation for spotting market trends before most, you’d expect a confident answer.
Instead, Blankfein deadpanned:
“I don’t think I could see four inches into the future.”
Not exactly what you’d expect from the guy with a battalion of brainiacs, bleeding edge tech, and half of Wall Street on speed dial.
But he wasn’t joking. He was making a crucial and often missed point about investing. Success doesn’t come from clairvoyance. It comes from preparation.
Because here’s the awkward truth: we’re all terrible at forecasting. And not just a little bit either — experts, pundits, economists would be better off flipping a coin and calling it a day. Even when we do get it right, it’s often for the wrong reasons.
So when the game is unwinnable, the only rational move is to change the game. And the game to play isn’t about betting on a single outcome. It’s about thinking probabilistically and planning across a range of possible futures.
You trade prediction for preparation. Instead of trying to be certain, you aim to be ready.
It’s why Blankfein followed up with:
“What we really aspire to is less to foresee the future and more to be a great contingency planner.”
Contingency thinking starts with a dose of humility. You admit you can’t see around every corner. But you can game it out: If this, then that.
Of course, having a view still matters. You need a thesis, a working hypothesis for how things might unfold. Forecasts help guide your planning — they just shouldn’t drive it. And crucially, you should avoid bets that rely on a single outcome, especially when the alternatives could lead to real pain.
The best investors aren’t married to a narrative. They build out scenarios, stress test assumptions, and stay ready to shift course when conditions change. It’s not about being right all the time. It’s about being prepared for what happens when you’re wrong. Flexibility isn’t a lack of conviction, just a recognition that the future rarely follows a script.
That’s the difference between the pros and the pundits. Not necessarily better guesses — just better preparation.
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