The Last Straw

I recently watched a talk by Patrick Honohan, Ireland’s central bank governor through the depths of the GFC. He was reflecting on the country’s property and banking collapse of 2009, and no surprise, it got my inner perma-bear twitching. But this isn’t about to turn into some Chicken Little rant about the similarities with Australia’s housing market. Actually, there are […]

Company earnings drive share prices over the longer term. More specifically, earnings per share, or EPS, does. It’s the great attractor that ultimately pulls prices along. You won’t find a single example of a company, ever, that has compounded its stock price over decades without also compounding EPS. It just doesn’t happen. That’s why EPS should sit at the centre of […]

“It’s the mark of a charlatan to try and explain simple things in complex ways, and it’s the mark of a genius to explain complicated things in simple ways.”— Naval Ravikant I don’t think many of us would disagree with Naval’s sentiment. But if we’re honest with ourselves, most of us are still drawn to sophisticated-sounding speech. Big words, technical […]

There’s this internet slang term you may have heard of: NGMI. An acronym for “not gonna make it,” it’s used as a bit of a dig at those making poor life choices. Texting your ex at 2 am? NGMI.Buying a jet ski on Afterpay? NGMI. Turns out, it’s also the perfect slogan for the stock market. Every bull run, every […]

““We mostly just sit around reading, thinking and waiting.” — Stanley Druckenmiller Like all the best investing quotes, this one manages to cram a lot of wisdom into a single line. In some ways it feels obvious, but it’s also easy to overlook. Especially in an era where many seem to think success means having eight monitors hooked up to […]

Financial pundits tend to have a hot take on every stock and a strong view on every market turn. And the louder and more certain the opinion, the more credibility it seems to carry. If you can’t dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bullsh*t! Whatever you do, allow no room for uncertainty. The market’s full of folk who are […]

Growth is often seen as synonymous with success in business. A company that expands rapidly, increases revenue, and captures market share is generally celebrated as a triumph of entrepreneurship and innovation. But beneath this enthusiasm lies a deceptive truth: not all growth is good, and much of it can, paradoxically, destroy long-term value for the very people who own the […]

Strawman member Bushmanpat kicked off an interesting thread this week, pointing out how pessimistic takes tend to dominate headlines, while optimistic ones are often ignored. Inspired by a piece in the AFR, it was a good reminder of the persistent bias in both media and markets: we are hard-wired to give more attention and credibility to bad news. Our tendency […]

I was looking through the archives and realised that since starting Strawman, I’ve written something like 330 articles. Some of them I’m proud of. Most of them… not so much. Looking back, the difference is obvious. The good ones — the ones that still feel sharp — came from a place of genuine interest and conviction. I had something I […]