Forum Topics ALC ALC ASX Announcements

Pinned straw:

Added 4 weeks ago

Everyone loves a bit of a comeback story, one where they were down and out, you wrote them off, yet they still comeback kill the bad guy and ultimately win. Is Alcidion (ALC) a comeback story? Steady on, not just yet.

But, they did just secure a contract with Hywel Dda University Health Board in Wales.

Some points:

  • It's for the provision of its Miya Precision Platform – inclusive of Miya Precision for Patient Flow, Observations and Assessments and Smartpage for clinical communications and tasking.
  • Their first contract win in Wales - always good to get a win on enemy turf.
  • Total Contract Value (TCV) is $5.5M (£2.8M approx.) over a term of five years, with an option to extend to seven years, increasing the TCV to $7.7M (approx. £3.9M). 


Alcidion CEO and MD, Kate Quirke said: “Introducing Alcidion’s Miya Precision Platform will support Hywel Dda to centralise and digitise essential patient information, optimising multiple inputs of clinical information and patient care metrics across its diverse service network to support improved patient flow and capacity management as well as clinical management of deteriorating patients. Won in a competitive tender process, this is the first contract we have secured with a Health Board in Wales, which is a deeply established and respected model of tertiary healthcare in the Northern Hemisphere. We are honoured to support the Health Board on their important 10-year journey of digital transformation.” 

In all, not massive, but respectable - I think I've said this on a post recently about ALC, but there is still a long way to go to win over the hearts of initial buyers, and holders (that's me) of ALC.

What ever happened to those "elephant" contracts they were after? Anyway.

I did recently say I was going to exit on better news, BUT (here comes the thesis creep), looks like there is a magic revenue number for ALC of $36m to reach CF breakeven and positivity. So I am slightly more positive that there is a chance there is more upside and it continues to re-rate here with still a good 3-4 months left before the close of the FY - and possibly more contract wins to come?

Yes, some faith is still in management to execute here, the comeback story is still underway, but it's arguably playing out. Just hoping they don't jump on a wrecking ball (again) and we see cost blowout through staff hiring, if that was to be the case, I would exit quicker than you can say knockout. Difficult thing is you wouldn't see this until the final year numbers.

Strawman
Added 4 weeks ago

@Seymourbutts -- There are certainly some positives in Alcidion’s latest update. While I’ve sold down most of my shareholding, I’m still uncertain whether the company’s past struggles were the result of a major management failure or simply the consequence of operating in a sector dominated by slow-moving, fiscally constrained, and bureaucratic customers.

That said, management isn’t entirely off the hook. There was a degree of hubris during the period of cheap capital and inflated valuations -- they arguably overextended themselves based on aggressive growth assumptions. While they are now taking corrective actions, the company still faces some challenges. Most notably, revenue recognition remains sluggish, with a significant portion of new sales not contributing to FY25 earnings. While cash flow has improved, the company is still not consistently cash-flow positive, and its path to sustained profitability hinges on executing well in the second half of the year.

Still, Alcidion is in a stronger financial position than before, with improving cash flows and a growing base of contracted revenue.

I could be tempted back in if we see some good sales momentum and continued cost discipline -- especially if the market maintains a skeptical footing.

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jcmleng
Added 4 weeks ago

Nice win. It not only adds to the small but steady stream of new contracts, but was won via competitive tender in a new geography etc, proving that ALC CAN win ... thats a positive for me.

With $30.8m in the bag and with the big North Cumbria deal imminent, I think there is every chance of making the $36m breakeven and cash flow point this FY25.

So long as contracts are coming through the door and adding to TCV, I am unconcerned with when revenue is recognised - that is just pure accounting timing. It all eventually flows to the bottom line anyway.

I do think ALC is back on the positive march, one contract at a time, albeit at a slower and steadier cadence. Having patiently (and painfully) held through the slump of the past 1.5-2 years, and seeing the basic requirements of a good turnaround still being in place (stable revenue base, steady contracts, market opportunity is still wide open, steady collections, leaner cost base, good balance sheet with no debt), I do cautiously feel that things might just have turned around and we are now headed for better times. Onward and upward!

Discl: Held IRL and in SM

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Bushmanpat
Added 4 weeks ago

I'm encouraged by this win. Kate did say in the last meeting that there was a lot of tender activity going on so it's good to see a few wins coming from that. If they can get a few more and keep the costs under control, then I think they could really get some momentum.

@Strawman you mention the hubris of management and the mistakes they made gearing up too early before the money was flowing in. I remember talking to a business guy who had a staff member make a big mistake and cost him a fortune. The staff member was very remorseful, but also had some talent and the guy could see he had potential. His dilemma was does he sack him for costing him a fortune, or does he take a different view and think he's just spent a fortune training him because let's be honest, only an idiot would stuff up like that again!

Hopefully Kate and the team have learned how to walk the fine line between cost control and adequate resourcing without blowing up too much cash.

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jcmleng
Added 4 weeks ago

Agree @Bushmanpat . IT resourcing has and will always be a fine line.

Planets very rarely align such that you have the holy grail of chargeable work/contracts at the very same time you have trained/experienced resources available and ready to go.

The other approach is you save cost by assuming you can staff a project once its sold. You can get away with this in a big SAP-like ERP where team sizes are big, but in smaller and industry-centric deployments, which I think ALC would be, this lack of knowledgeable resources would be glaring as hell.

Having experienced both scenarios as supplier and customer, I actually didn't think ALC did the wrong thing by lining up resources ahead of contract, training them etc. It demonstrated that Kate was taking a longer term view of ensuring deployments were done right etc, which is always the "better" thing to do, from a long term perspective.

I do feel she has learnt from the cost and capital raise dramas. Cost containment has been front and centre in all the Quarterlies since and she has been noticeably more measured when talking about the opportunities to temper expectations.

I just hope ALC does not lurch to the other side where they do not have trained resources ready to go when the contracts roll in - that would have far greater negative long term connotations, particularly as the healthcare sector in the UK is so credentials-centric.

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