@RhinoInvestor

For the US case botanix buy the patient copay down to zero so they can send 11 refills from one interaction either via the telehealth channel or the dermatologist so there is potentially 11 refills per person from what I can gather however I'm sure there will be droppoffs etc year on year. so consensus seems to be an estimate of 6 refills per individual to be be conservation side.

Japan don't have this and as a result it is a very low refill rate according to the reports from botanix.

Would be great to be corrected if I am wrong re the Japan refill rates.

In Japan prescriptions are not automatically refilled. They also expire in less than a week (~4 days) after being provided to you by your physician. Consequently, each time you need a refill you need to go see your Dr for a new prescription. So whether, you are on a short term course of drugs or long term life saving medication, you will be visiting your Dr and pharmacist quite regularly.

Steps:

1. See the Dr - remember your residence card, insurance card and clinic card. If it’s your first time to this clinic you will pay a new patient fee if not it will be a returning patient fee. What you then pay for the visit is based on a National points system allocated to each medical issue so the cost is standardised nation wise). If it’s not serious you will usually go to a local clinic. You can go to a small hospital but, there are usually fees associated to stop people fronting up with non-emergency issues clogging up emergency departments.
2. Hand over your money (national and employee health insurance cover ~70%)
3. Take your prescription to the pharmacy within 4 days to prevent your prescription expiring.
4. Present your national health card - residence are required to have one (you pay a monthly fee includes a base fee plus a salary's adjusted additional amount = similar to Medicare)
5. Present your medical Records book (paper or App - history of all your medication usage) - they will check through it.
6. You will be asked if you don’t mind receiving a generic brand if one is available.
7. Hand over your money
8. Receive your medication which, includes instructions in a little plastic pouch.
9. Rinse and repeat for each repeat prescription.

Ref: Japanese colleague

My understanding is very much along the lines laid out by @NewbieHK

Admittedly, I wasn't across all 9 bullet points (great detail there) but that aligns with my general understanding of the situation.

I understand that advertising a product like SOFRA is not allowed in Japan. So that changes the game significantly, I'm guessing.The BOT team are able to push the product via various channels and get the word out.

Once a HH sufferer decides they want to try it ( assuming they have insurance) the process is in theory very stream lined. Cutting a process that can take months down to days. The customer never has to leave home to receive SOFDRA in the USA.

It will be good to get the data from the PEP.

Held in RL and SM

This really is the X factor that could / should be a massive boost in hitting population adjusted kaken number or hopefully exceeding them. Like everyone has already said when you start doing the potential sales figures the numbers get crazy when you look at a very successful launch.

I wonder if they are still running the PEP as that was the 6 month one advertised as finishing end of Jan.

End of month I'm hoping to see a breakdown of script sources.

1. IHHS members (PEP falls under this I think)

Scripts via prescribing derms.

2. Scripts via derms

We were told 1mill people in derms office last year so assuming a similar volume this year we can possibly get an idea of penetration of people in the derm offices each month.

3. Scripts via platform, the full rollout of this if sticking to the timeline of march for rollout( not expecting a delay on this one) .

I think the 1 million patient target list is the total people from the derm offices last year that management refer to. this would possibly fall under the platform, thinking they might reach out to these people via a phonecall and telehealth from the dermatologists or direct them to the platform. This possibly falls under 1 and 3.

Interesting to here some other views on this. Again based on the Ihhs survey, a follow up telehealth etc to people who have already sought treatment last year should have a decent chance of conversion to a 1 year supply.