Management kept saying targeting 30% gross to net, never mentioned the gross figure but said it was closer to 1000 than 500 or some similar line,

All initial analyst notes were $450 US net, upon release of data in April and interview Matt noted it would be closer to $400 net due to the deductibles insurance reset etc... but hoping to trend higher over the year.

Definately not mentioned was '' gross to net will be in the toilet in month 1-3 and we hope to work towards 30%''

Yep, website seems to be down.

Announcement out:

Key highlights Botanix Provides Sofdra™ Launch Update

• Sofdra™ has shown strong demand and performance in line with recent dermatology launches

• Gross sales of approximately $25 million AUD since January 20251,2

• 2,300+ unique prescribers wrote Sofdra prescriptions in June with refill rates exceeding the industry average3,4

• Over 16,000 prescriptions filled across 6,700 patients since launch3

• Strategic investments are underway to further accelerate growth 

My first read on these numbers is that new patient additions have slowed to 1,000 per month from April onward (1868 in March) which is solid but with the additional sales team and platform in operation I was expecting a possible acceleration.

We will get more info at 9:30 when they start the webinar...

Disc: I own RL+SM

@Nnyck777 Yes still down. I checked late yesterday afternoon and it was down. So been down more that 12 hours, I think.

@Nnyck777 Im aiming to dial in. My analysis may be limited to some deep insights and/or hot copper style rocket emoji’s.

Hi @thetjs

Any insights welcome. I would love rocket emojis. So cynical after today’s trading. I suspect another acquisition which will push profitability back which the asx just doesn’t value and can’t cope with. When it comes to biotechs the Aussie market wants instant profitability and evidence of stupendous growth or will not invest.

I believe this attitude is why there is so much super money in this country and essentially nothing to invest in = CBAs share price (which is fu$&ing tulip level insane).

God I have become cynical this last 6months. Trump and corruption have gotten to me. I hope it’s great but the asx is what it is and biotech investors are not forward looking. I reckon someone saw something that extended timeline to profitability and sold off.

I hope they are wrong and miss out on a Uber dollar value increase and buyout. 7 years in this stock. It’s exhausting!

Cheers

Nnyck777

@thetjs appreciate any summary you (and others) make, as I am still in Europe. (Enjoying the views over Lake Garda, Italy at the mo.)

I'm weighing up whether to get up at 1:30am to watch the call because I think it will be a pretty important one.

In the April update, we got data from 9 weeks of sales up to end of the week 6th April, with the exit run rate consistent with the consensus sales for 2026. So, tomorrow's report will add a further 11 weeks of prescriptions and prescriber additions. It will also see the initial impact of opening the online marketing channel, as well as initial impacts of the sale force additions, which include territory expansions.

At the 4C, two weeks after this initial report, the language was of weekly scripts "trending to more than 500 per week" and "a run rate of 2,000 per month".

So, the big question for me is whether weekly scripts have continued to increase, and the narrative around that.

It is normal following a product launch, for sales to accelerate over the first 6 months. This is because clinicians who adopt often initially prescribe at a slower rate, choosing patients with the "ideal" profile for period of 0-3 months. As they gain confidence, including based on the absence of any negative reports as well as potentially reinforcing messages from visits from reps. as to what the wider experience in the market is, prescribers overall go through a phase of increased frequency over the next 3 months (i.e. months 3-6). Because of this effect, the continual addition of new subscribers in the initial territory, as well as territory expansion (which we know is happening from the locations of the job ads placed by $BOT), I am hoping (expecting) to see that weekly scripts have continued to climb beyond the initial 9+2 weeks of information we have. The magnitude of the effect WILL have a direct bearing on the forecast (year 3) peak sales, and therefore to valuation.

In aggregate, with 5 months of initial data from the s-curve, we might start to see with greater confidence what the plateau sales are likely to look like. Are we still in script acceleration, linear growth or declining growth phases? (If the last of these 3 - worst case scenario - it might be possible to estimate peak sales and compare with the various forecasts out there. If either of the first two, projections will likely be based on the % of prescribers covered, but will be more uncertain ... greater upside.)

The 9+2 week dataset was too short to really conclude much beyond that it looks like the product is successful and the analyst forecasts are likely to be met. I think tomorrow's data will allow getting a much better handle on the overall revenue curve, or at least put a robust floor under peak sales.

There have been a few comments about other product developments. However, I am not expecting this because the ASX-release is pretty clear that this is about "a comprehensive update on the strong initial demand and performance of Sofdra™."

These guys are good enough communicators that if they were going to announce other things, I'd have thought it would be signalled. (We'll see soon enough.)

I'm glad to see the inclusion of the language "comprehensive update" ... so, I am hoping for a continuation of the weekly scripts data series, # prescribers, total active prescribers, data on e-channel performance, marketing, territory expansion etc.

So maybe I'll get up at 1am after all,... as it will be hard to sleep knowing this is going on!

Disc: Held in RL (largest postion) and SM

Sadly, this is the market emoji:

@mikebrisy I hope you didnt get up at 1am to watch that!

@Nnyck777 It will be interesting to get the thoughts of others here. I felt Howie's demeanour was down beat and depressive from the get go. He was saying how well it was going, but he sounded flat. He sat hunched forward a little. His tone and body language struck me and I had trouble hearing the numbers and info being presented. Halfway through, I flicked over to see the SP and Ouch!

Currently ~40% down

I'll be interested to hear the thoughts of others. Has BOT been over sold today?

Held in RL and SM

Well below what I expected and obviously with a 40% drop in share price, below what the market expected.

Looks like net sales of ~A$5m for FY25 for Sofdra, they are currently only getting 23% of Gross to Net but expect to get this to 40-50% due to an improving shift in patient reimbursement and payment arrangements. This feels to be a fair way off, but with in improving mix achievable.

The biggest gap was the digital channel - it seems to have been left on hold while they focus on the direct channel via their sales team. A big red flag on this opportunity which I and many here expected to see in operation and as a growth driver.

Time to really dig into what is happening...

I'm not sure why he sounded like such a sad sack.

Sounds like 20% of new users don't get the auto fills, of the 80% that do 95% keep them?

Gross to net with the deductibles early in the year isn't great.

Looks like a good per rep return so adding more is a no brainer?

Adding 1.5m per month revenue, not as high as expected when looking at an s curve but it is still only 5 months in.

Strong prescriber base to build from.

To me some to like some to not like.

Not as high growth as I was expecting overall but looking forward 12 months looks ok to me, adding roughly 1m revenue per month looks good in 12 months time considering that rate may increase with additional reps and time in the market..

There was no mention of digital in there which was odd.

I'm not across BOT as well as most, but I guess it's fair to say the market was expecting more..

The update did show a growing prescriber base and solid refill rates, plus some improvement in gross to net yields, though those are still pretty low by industry standards. But there wasn’t much detail on how script volumes are tracking week to week which makes it hard to tell if momentum is still building. With around 16,000 total scripts over five months, or about 800 a week, maybe the market is seeing that as a sign things are flattening out when they should be ramping up?

The extra spend on expanding the sales force might also be adding to the concern?

I’m of a similar mindset.

Numbers not mindblowing but growing month on month with high initial retention.

Perhaps people expected more?

Will drop in some more notes later today.

Target GTN of 30-40%, not sure how they do 40-50%. The problem is the key comp that drives the 30-40% target range is "best in class". CEO was queried about that and said as much.

As an outsider not long, comes across as BOT has oversold several elements on the fiscal side and this update is downgrading a lot of expectations in that. Lower and slower GTN trajectory with the target seemingly a high case means a lot more burn and with that, the $65m cash as of March 25 (Another ~$15-20m burnt in June qtr) doesn't last very long.

And I know they said the cash is enough to get to BE but they said that before the prior raise.

Sticker shock is obvious and it will take time to digest and have expectations recalibrated. Stock in the sinbin but remains interesting to watch for that genuine inflection point.

Looks like disappointing update by the previous posts. Back to breakeven here for me. Just hope the sad numbers is just a one off.

Notable for me how much emphasis was being placed on hiring sales reps over the digital platform that was touted earlier. Guessing that hasn't delivered as hoped? Higher costs due to the need for more sales reps? Overall tone from management seemed a little muted.

@Schwerms No mention of digital and what is the story with the website https://botanixpharma.com/ ? Not operable for the last 18hours at least.

I was initially hoping that this was because they were upgrading some element/s etc and would announce some you beaut situation along side this mornings announcement and webinar. It appears I was wrong.

The bus to rortsville has blown a head gasket but it hasn't thrown a rod through the block so that's something

Great posts on BOT update this morning and as others have pointed out, the demeanour of Howie was very off putting.  He looked down as he spoke as though he could not look you electronically in the eye and he was so downbeat you wondered if the Chair did not have him on suicide watch.  

A strong leader should always project optimism and strength. Even though the GTN was woeful and sales were below expectations and evidently on-line sales are doing no good since as he did not speak of it -  even though all this is happening he should have forcefully said: “This has happened but this is what we are doing about it”.   And yes he did sale he was putting on extra 6 sales staff and the GTN was trending in the correct direction, but it was weak and suspicious.  How is he going to attract top performing sales staff and motivate the rest of his staff if he is getting around like Larry limp-dick?

It was like the kid who comes home and sheepishly tells his mum he has stolen a cricket back from school. And then later you find out that not only did he stole the cricket bat he then burnt the school to the ground.   What else is happening in BOT that Howie (and the rest of them) are not telling us? 

Website back on line 2:20 pm CST. Possibly just an odd coincidence that it was down while this massive drop in SP has been playing out.

Ahh small caps… bit of a kick in the guts!

It’s now a 240mil market cap growing at 10% a month (for now) off a base of 8 mil a month, having not got even close to saturation…. I wish I had no emotion, but I’m hurting too much. As a real estate agent once spouted wisdom to me mid auction “c’mon mate, it’s only money” hahaha/cry

@Scoonie the last time I saw Matt Callahan interviewed, I thought that something was up. He behaved differently than I had seen him before. Something seemed off. Soon after that he stepped down for "health reasons". I thought, oh well there is the answer. He had done this before. I wonder now if it's all related and "Health reasons" was BS. Its a potential red flag moment that has been niggling in the back of my mind since that interview.

@Metis if its any consolation (and it probably isn't) there'd be a few of us here, hurting right along side you.

Short hand update from Euroz.

Trajectory off on two accounts according to them, first being prescriptions, second being GTN.

First one, given consensus, can be just as much a forecasting error on the analyst's account, second is likely everyone being off on GTN, which I think is the main event of the disclosure today.

GTN "going to nowhere" ?? you are right its the issue imo. yikes

I think BOT is a good example of reputed management from big companies doesn't translate to the same in a new smaller company

Big lesson for me here and hopefully everyone else.

Only example where this management idea has worked is well the most hated and least followed company here - Gold company Capricorn Resources!

I think today, I almost needed an emergency strawman meeting after the investors meeting to decompress and vent ha ha

@wonkeydonkey I would have sat in on that one. ....We may still need it yet.

Oh Good, I can add to my SM holding now its under 20%

Woo

Probably another concern is why BOT needed to look into building their own digital platform.

There are probably others out there in the US they can leverage. HIMS and AMZN who are looking at moving into Telehealth come to mind.