Pinned straw:
Q4 - New quarter. Same story.
The Good (*Once again these are based of statements with no backing of data)
- Amazon have recommenced their long delayed yard mapping project. There may not be a lot of revenue that comes out of this in the end, but it's a solid logo to have when promoting your product.
- Storm response module now live with Entergy with expected subscription to start in Q1FY26. Once again not likely a significant value item by itself, but it may start to be a contributor to the unknown ARR figure.
- Three new mining sites added in conjunction with GridVision. The partnership commenced in H2FY24 and now looks to be gaining some momentum.
- Renewals with Australian Transport authorities at higher rates and increasing numbers should lead to increased revenue off the same cost base.
The Not So Good (*Based on the facts)
- Cash receipts did not rebound to Q2 levels as stated in the Q3. Only $1.6m in cash received which is less than the long term quarterly average since CY22. This resulted in a cash out flows of ~$1m and cash balance decrease to $1.9m. Once again less than two quarters of runway left. There hasn't been too much of a change in operating expenses so if additional revenue can be captured and realised there is an opportunity for operating leverage.
- Appear to have missed out on the contract with Australian utilities that were tendered on a while back.
Watch Status
- Decrease in sentiment. Pointerra has for the last several quarters been on the verge of what looked like it could be a turn around in the business. At this point until there can be some consistency in the financials and some improved reporting metrics it could all still be a big fluffy sales pitch.
Valuation Status
- Valuation updated. Due to tracking in line between previous Base / Bull cases. Small increase in base case numbers. Small increase in likelihood of Bull Case.
What To Watch
Some progress made on a few items.
- New Q4FY25
- Digital Surveyor to launch in Q1FY26
- General watch - Grids IV Updates
- GeoPanel Opportunities with Leidos Australia
- Previous Quarter
- Cash receipts expected at Q2 levels. ~$4m❌$1.6.m. Forecasting much bigger numbers again
- Contract Updates? Entergy Resilience Program / Enel Columbia /? Updates? Progress?❌No Updates
- Paid storm response assessment for new utility customer to be carried out in Q4✅ Completed with Entergy. Annual subscription transition expected in Q1FY26
- WA miner hazard management pilot to commence.✅ Commenced. Completion expected in Nov / Q2FY26
- Multi year contract extension with East coast road/rail customers expected in Q4✅ Contracts renewed at increased ARR
- Older
- Teamed up with two utilities for JARVIS. Expected selection in Q4❌ Submission completed, selection now expected early FY2026
- Engaging with European rail operator ❌ No Update
- Oil and Gas exploration implementation to be completed in Q3. ❌ Ongoing. Nearing completion
- Indonesian national mapping program. No time frame provided.Q2FY25❌ No Update
- Commercial agreements being finalised with global engineering software provided for integration of Pointerras pole loading and analysis. Q1FY25 ❌ No Update
Good coverage of 3DP's quarterly @Bradbury and as you pointed out, they once again did not achieve their own guidance. I understand the bear case being a zero valuation when they need to keep raising money and the amounts of the raisings are so damn low due to nobody wanting to loan them more money or buy blocks of shares (placements). Well, not "nobody", but let's just say their options are clearly rather limited. Something to consider is how much further dilution through discounted capital raisings 3DP shareholders are going to have to endure before the company starts earning enough to wash its own face?
There's always potential, and it's always just around the corner, but they seem to be stuck on a roundabout and the "corner" never ends.
I've voted this straw of yours up for the effort and the thorough coverage Bradbury, which I appreciate; It's way better than just posting a screenshot or a copy and paste of the company's own announcement; I always appreciate some member input with these straws and you've provided plenty. However, I can't vote up your 6 cent valuation because I think you have to skew the valuation more towards the bear case rather than stay around the base case - due to the company's history of perennially underdelivering on their own guidance; plenty promised, bugger all delivered. And the CRs just to keep the lights on. As you say, they're down to under two quarters of cash burn yet again. Companies like this don't make it into my investable universe.
In summary, this company is a wealth destroyer, not a wealth winner. They know how to burn through cash, but clearly don't know how to become profitable and stay profitable. So is it the business model or the management? It has to be one or the other - or both?
@Bear77 The spin seems to be running out of steam a bit these days, but Ian was still trying to give it a bit of a pump in a recent interview with RaaS. Now they have a bullish outlook.
Interview:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ExpRkec7HLk
Research Note:
https://acrobat.adobe.com/id/urn:aaid:sc:AP:1f1fa380-41c4-4dc2-b3e2-1b7283ab1e7b