Pinned valuation:
Is anyone else seeing a decent margin of safety for Wisetech after recent share price drops? Currently $86 at 7/10.
My calculated fair value came to $110, with bear case around mid $80’s, base around $110, and bull around $130.
This was with fairly conservative assumptions around integration risks of e2open and relatively new management team.
@Stumpy yes, my valuation from Feb this year is $103 ($92 - $123), and I last topped up some at $99, or thereabouts.
If we assume 20% annual growth, then allowing for the passage of time, a simple aupdate today would be more like $113 ($101 - $135), which compares with consensus average of $122 12m price target.
I'm definitely seeing value now, however, there are a few factors on my radar screen which make me think about not increasing my position size:
So, even though I am holding an underweight postion size (RL 6%) compared with what I've normally held over the last 9 years, I think I've settled for the "do nothing" option, and just let time do its thing. Should we get the next growth assets correction of -10% to -20%, then that would be the opportunity to load up, and I'll be at the front of the quene WHEN that happens.
Disc: Held in RL only. I don't hold WTC in SM