Forum Topics GTK GTK Release the Kraken?

Pinned straw:

Added 2 months ago

I have been watching Gentrack for a while (don’t hold), and so ahead of the annual results on Monday I have decided to put together some details on Kraken Technologies for comparison.  

For some reason, I cannot find Kraken’s 2025 annual report. The 2022-2024 annual reports are easily accessible. Origin Energy’s FY25 annual report contains some details, so have made a lot of assumptions and guesses. Due to the accounting standards in the UK, they seem to be exempt from reporting on cash flow.

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Notes:

  • All figures in UK pounds.
  • Contracted accounts include both paying accounts and signed accounts that will be billed in the future.
  • ARR estimated on ARR/account from FY24.  
  • Origin Energy reported that 100m contracted accounts =500m ARR, which is well above my calculated 2.8/account from FY24. I have used my figure in FY25/26/27 to be conservative.  

 

Overall thoughts: On the surface, Kraken looks like a much more appealing company than Gentrack. When it was announced in July 2025 that Kraken would be de-merged from Octopus the GTK share price began a steady sell-off signalling that other investors would rather wait and see and I feel the same.

Given that markets have sold off this week on tech stocks, GTK needs to post some seriously good numbers or guidance to avoid any further pressure.

edgescape
Added 2 months ago

Only just met own guidance yet share price jumped 20 percent?

Missed the meeting but a recording got posted

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Keyboardcat999
Added a month ago

My takeaways from the results presentation:

What I like:

  • The Veovo business is looking very strong. Management called out the exceptional performance multiple times. Veovo provides some nice optionality away from the utilities business. They mentioned that it is operating at a rule of 50. If Veovo was listed separately, I would buy that today.
  • Management seem very transparent and measured. I felt like they spelt things out very simply and clearly on the call without hype.
  • Strong balance sheet with $84m in cash and no debt with free cash flow dipping from FY24 but still positive. Profitability could improve further given that they fully expense software development and are aggressively spending on product development and marketing.


What I Don't like:

  • The utilities recurring revenue grew 12% which, in isolation, seems fine but given the strength of the competition is a little concerning. APAC region had zero growth over FY24. While this is definitely not a 'winner takes all' scenario I still would prefer to invest in a strong leader than a strong follower. They did seem confident that future growth will be higher, so I might be too negative on this.
  • I don't understand the point of the Amber Electric ownership. Is this so that they can test and learn new product development? To me, it just makes the business more complicated and doesn't seem to be providing a return on investment just yet.


Even after today's 20% jump, this is sitting at a PE of 40 and 3.3 EV to sales. It seems cheap, but I am not enthused by all the different parts. I am tempted to take a small position, after all, perfect companies don't exist. For the time being, I will stay on the sidelines.

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edgescape
Added a month ago

@Keyboardcat999

Haven't had time but I will try and write up something regarding Amber

I think Gentrack did well with that many new logos but I still need to look at the call to check

People probably thought Kraken would eat all of Gentracks customers like what happened to Hansen Powercloud! I remember hearing somewhere nearly all of Hansen's Powercloud global customers went to Kraken, leaving Hansen with only the German speaking market. Maybe you can also look at Hansen Powercloud?

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edgescape
Added a month ago

@Keyboardcat999

Regarding your reference to Amber not performing well I think it's a bit premature to make that statement.

Look at the Gentrack platform more deeply and see how it ties in with Amber and some of their b2b and b2c customers. I also note that Gentrack customer Ecotricity is also with Amber.





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edgescape
Added a month ago

Listened to the recording and I thought the call was pretty positive and reflects my thoughts on what was going on with product development

Genesis g2 completed on time and potential customers that were waiting on the sidelines now finally showing interest (hence the flat year). However no forward guidance.

Cash being reinvested instead of paying a dividend like in the past which is a bit disappointing as I have been waiting for something here. Clearly Miles is different from previous management.

Wish I had the courage to double down last week although already have significant holding and the recent drawdown was a test of nerves and conviction.

But did this deserve a 30 percent rerate over just a few days?

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