Offtake LOI with Green Steel (19/3/26)

An agreement for a possible agreement in 2030 – that’s all this announcement (pdf )is.

With any false enthusiasm delt with, this agreement with privately owned Collie Steel Mill (in WA) is for an offtake agreement of up to 8,500 tonnes of Graphite a year for 10 years (starting 2030). The price is the landed (Bunbury) anthracite price less 5% which is currently ~A$400/tonne. I believe this is a good price for mid-low grade graphite for bulk use, if it’s at all different to the price used in their hydrogen production economics then that will be impacted.

The Collie Steel Mill is expected to start construction late 2026 and be operational in 2028. The aim is to “produce Australia’s most sustainable steel rebar from recycled scrap steel for domestic and international consumption”. This is the first commercial offtake agreement for Hazer, a Letter Of Intent (LOI), so is encouraging but currently worth as much as the paper it’s written on.

I would like to see several of these agreements and international before I start getting excited about them, but at least this is a start.

Disc: I own RL+SM

10Mar Vs 10Feb Presentation (10/3/26)

The presentation released today doesn’t have any new material information, but the shift in focus in interesting compared to last months presentation. My AI assistant did I good job in comparing the two.

TLDR: The March deck is materially more focused on near-term commercial milestones (Whyalla, Canada execution, KBR traction) and removes strategic/policy context, suggesting shift from education to execution narrative.

Perplexity Comparison:

Based on comparison of Hazer Group's February 10, 2026 and March 10, 2026 corporate presentations, here are the material changes:

Financial Metrics

• Market cap decreased from A$113M (Feb 6) to A$104M (Mar 6) – 8% decline over one month.
• Funding position unchanged at ~$17M as at Dec 31, 2025.

Major New Developments (March deck only)

• Whyalla steelworks selection announced – M Resources selected Hazer for clean steel bid at Whyalla, first major steelmaking application for the technology.
• KBR alliance milestone reached – March deck shows KBR Alliance formation and commencement of 30ktpa+ reactor design work.
• Canada project update – Feb deck showed 2,500 tpa Phase 1 and 100,000+ tpa Phase 2; March deck refers to "finalise scope and commercial structure to move Canada project toward execution."

Presentation Structure Changes

• Feb deck had 31 slides covering six sections including detailed "Unlocking Clean Steel" (slides 19-22) and "Hazer Graphite" (slides 23-25).
• March deck condensed to 23 slides – removed standalone "Unlocking Clean Steel" section, integrated Whyalla announcement into pipeline section, reduced graphite section from 3 slides to 1.
• March deck added new slide 20 titled "Commercial momentum building through 2026" with five-pillar value creation framework.

Strategic Messaging Shifts

• Feb deck emphasized "Delivering commercialisation" with four focus areas: convert pipeline to licenses, deliver FID-ready projects, monetise graphite, unlock new growth.
• March deck reframed as near-term execution milestones: Canada delivery, Win Whyalla, KBR sales traction, strategic deals, revenue expansion.
• March deck states "Hazer is now entering the strongest value-creation phase in its history" with clearer 2026 catalyst timeline.

Content Removed in March Deck

• Detailed POSCO collaboration slides (Feb slides 22) removed entirely.
• Government policy alignment and ARENA site visit content (Feb slide 27) removed.
• Methane pyrolysis industry validation slide (Feb slide 12) and plug-in technology infrastructure slide (Feb slide 13) removed.

Technical & Pipeline Updates

• Project table changed: Feb deck showed four projects in table format with detailed phase information; March deck references same projects but simplified presentation.
• Global pipeline unchanged: Both decks cite 50+ active leads, 1.2 Mtpa+ potential capacity, same sector breakdown.

Disc: I own RL+SM

Concrete & Asphalt Applications (3/3/26) 

Analysis curtesy of my assistant (pdf):

• Independent Boral qualification removes a key technical barrier and gives Hazer a credible entry point into very large, standards‑driven concrete and asphalt markets aligned with decarbonisation and durability themes.
• However, the announcement does not show quantified performance or cost advantages versus incumbent SCMs and polymer/rubber modifiers, so the economic case for mass adoption remains unproven in highly cost‑sensitive infrastructure mixes.
• Commercialisation is still early: there are no disclosed offtakes, pilot road/bridge projects, or pricing benchmarks, meaning this de‑risks technical fit but not yet demand visibility, pricing power or margin structure.
• For valuation, concrete/asphalt should currently be treated as a medium‑probability, high‑optionality outlet for Hazer’s low‑emissions graphite, with upside dependent on proving life‑cycle cost and CO2 benefits versus alternatives and converting testing into multi‑year supply contracts.

Not market sensitive for a reason – it’s a technical approval for an edge case application with no commercial support as yet.

Disc: I own RL+SM

ARENA (17/2/26)

Non-market sensitive announcement by Hazer that they have received $0.5m on meeting their next milestone under the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (“ARENA”) Funding Agreement. Another $0.5m is due early CY27 to complete the funding package that was awarded in 2020.

They had A$14.8m cash at the end of Q2 but are running at $2.5-3.5m cash cost a quarter with minimal revenue expected for some time from existing customers and those likely near term customers. R&D grants will form the most significant funding source but I anticipate that they will not be FCF positive until FY29 or FY30, so additional capital will be needed.

This doesn’t lead to the conclusion of a capital raise, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a small one if there is a price spike for some reason (would be a good idea). It is just as likely that some form of non-dilutive funding is used.

The company offers a very compelling case for grants to meet government mandates around decarbonisation and critical resource security for graphite. Failing that, as they build long term contracts which have low early year revenues they are likely to be able to borrow against much higher later year revenues, so debt financing is an option.

The half year accounts should be out in about a week so we will see if there is any other interesting developments as far as customers go, but I don’t see there being anything interesting in the accounts themselves.

Disc: I own RL+SM