@MacTavishNat Interesting. To be honest I hadn't looked back that far (re the HPV vaccine)

I have given this a bit of thought overnight. I don't really understand why they felt the need to raise so much capital right now, in one hit. Why not raise half now and then raise again in 12 months or more. By which time hopefully there would be some more positive catalysts and they could raise at a higher price. Maybe the reasoning was that by getting Medtronic on board, they could raise at a higher price. But they only got $5.75.

It just doesn't seem to me that $5.75 is such a great price that it justifies raising $US320 million all at once. Interested in others thoughts on this

I’m pretty sure you’ve got it @Goldfish. I’d have to double check current shares on issue (I think was creeping to 50 million with a recent placement). Not a done deal yet. Price is to be $5.75 USD, so same as what NASDQ closed at. My estimate of post-raise market cap is about 515 million USD.

The earth-shattering component is that Medtronic already has about a third of TAVR sales, and yet they are seeking this investment. There are others’ equally incentivised.

Just further to @Goldfish’ point about the difficulty of finding correct base information for valuation I’m pasting the following summary from an ASX announcement with the latest share count info. It shows it is close to 100 million in current shares and just above 105 million fully diluted. It also shows Australian CDIs as being a much smaller portion now. However, just be careful still about relying on only American sources too — Google finance is yet to update market cap.

@PabloEskyBruh makes a really good point. It is really important to be careful when using information aggregators (yahoo, tikr, MarketScreener, TradingView, S&P IQ, Quartr, etc. etc.) especially when businesses are making changes in capital structure or going through discontinuities like M&A. It can sometimes take quite a long time for data to be updated. (In the distant past this has caught me out, to my detriment).

It can also be important to check both for options as well as the terms of convertible debt, as these can also lead to material dilution. This is particularly the case in biotech, where firms can go for many, many years pulling every lever to get cash!

So, I have a rule. Whenever I am moving my own real money, I always review the accounts, and track through ASX releases to make sure I understand the capital structure up to the minute.

And for anyone using AI to run valuations (I’ve seen several Strawpeople do that), beware that the LLMs pull data from the information aggregators, so AI driven valuations are exposed to that risk, and they might not be “aware” (insofar as LLMs have developed sentience). At the very minimum, do the valuation using a deep analysis mode (if offered) and explicitly prompt the LLM to check capital structure and assess potential dilution.

@PabloEskyBruh looking at the announcement, I read it as a valuation cap for Medtronic of US$90m for at most 20% of the company. So it's not US$200m for 20%, ie a valuation of US$1b, but a cap of US$450m (1/20% x US$90m). The will pay the offer price (TBA) up to a valuation of US$450m, which I agree is still a nice confidence boost for investors to have such a high cap given the company trades at A$130m, but you will have to see what the offer price is for a proper value indication.

Well that's how I read it... I don't follow it, was just curious.

You’re right @Tom73, my bad. I can’t tell if they are precluded from taking part in the public offering also but. Biggest confidence boost would come from other big companies buying also (such as Johnson & Johnson). I think the public offer will be north of the IPO about 13 months ago. Definitely good news —I’m still putting in the realm of a seismic landscape-changing shift for Anteris.

I was wrong again. Public offer is $5.75 USD — below the 2024 IPO of $6. Still, at $8.54 AUD it locks in that 15-20% overnight jump we saw.

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-03047908-6A1307883&v=undefined

Back trading on ASX, and in that vicinity.

If successful that is funding for at least two years but with dilution of 50%. Will have to do my valuation again — but spoiler alert I’ll be less conservative with my assumptions. I think it is going to look similar to my current one.

Bit of a wild close there at $9.50 AUD some 75c of the public offering. Maybe some peeps were caught short? Anyway, good day. And first time I’ve been IRL in the green for a while.

Thanks for all the info

I am also a bit disappointed by the offer price only being $5.75, thought it might have been a bit higher. As did some others presumably who bid up the after hours price on the Nasdaq.

Anyway, looking at the big picture, this is still obviously good news. The investment from Medtronic is a massive vote of confidence and validation of the technology. AVR gets $US320 million of funding, which should be enough to complete the Paradigm trial. Shareholders get diluted, but at least it's at a reasonable (but slightly disappointing) premium to where the SP had been sitting.

I'll definitely be holding on to my small parcel of shares and watching with interest