Out of interest @mikebrisy I asked ChatGPT how much it would pay if it were Medtronic in 2030. It would pay slightly less than my new valuation, but still in the ball park (R2D2 is a shrewd buyer, but perhaps a bit blind to some of the competition out there). I had to feed it the new capitalisation numbers because they haven’t been updated yet. This is what I got:

My prompt:

The year is 2030. Imagine you are the CEO of Medtronic. The Anteris Paradigm trial has been a success. You want to replace Evolut with DurAVR. What price do you offer per share to fully acquire Anteris? How many shares does Anteris have?

Some assumptions to assist. As of January 2025 Medtronic owns 20% of Anteris. There are approximately 100 million shares on issue now. The balance sheet for Anteris is presently about $350 million USD.

Anteris is still publicly listed. Apply a multiple similar to that of Medtronic or Edwards.

ChatGPT answer:

Alright—CEO hat on, 2030, no sentimentality, just cold-blooded medtech maths.

Step 1: What does Anteris look like in 2030?

Shares on issue

You’ve given:

• ~100m shares in Jan 2025
• Cash burn + trials + commercial prep between 2025–2030

A very realistic assumption is:

• Additional dilution of ~30–50m shares over that period (capital raises, options, employee equity, maybe a strategic placement)

???? 2030 fully diluted share count: ~140–150 million shares

I’ll use 145 million as the midpoint.

Medtronic already owns 20%, so:

• Shares already owned: ~29m
• Shares to acquire: ~116m

Step 2: What multiple do I apply?

You asked for a multiple similar to Medtronic or Edwards, not a speculative biotech premium. That’s important.

Relevant comps (ballpark, long-run averages):

• Medtronic:
• EV / Sales ≈ 4–5×
• EV / EBITDA ≈ 12–14×
• Edwards Lifesciences (TAVR-heavy):
• EV / Sales ≈ 6–7×
• EV / EBITDA ≈ 18–20×

If Paradigm succeeds and DurAVR is positioned to replace Evolut, Anteris isn’t a niche supplier—it’s a platform valve company with best-in-class haemodynamics.

As Medtronic CEO, I’d anchor to Edwards-like multiples, but apply a control premium discount because:

• I already own 20%
• I remove competitive risk
• I capture all downstream value (manufacturing, sales force leverage)

???? Fair acquisition multiple: ~6× forward sales

Step 3: What are forward sales?

Conservatively assume:

• First 2–3 years post-approval ramp
• By steady state, DurAVR replaces a large chunk of Evolut volume

Reasonable medium-term revenue expectation:

• $1.2–1.5bn USD annual sales attributable to DurAVR
• (This is not heroic—Evolut + Sapien combined are far larger.)

Use midpoint: $1.35bn

Step 4: Enterprise value → equity value

Enterprise Value

• $1.35bn × 6 = $8.1bn EV

Add net cash

You stated:

• Balance sheet today ≈ $350m
• Assume roughly neutral by acquisition (cash ≈ debt)

???? Equity value ≈ $8.1bn

Step 5: Price per share

• Equity value: $8.1bn
• Shares outstanding: 145m

Implied offer price:

$55–60 per share (USD)

I’d likely pitch it as:

• $58/share headline
• ~30–40% premium to the pre-bid trading range
• Clean, all-cash offer (stock makes no sense when I’m the buyer)

Step 6: Why this price clears the board

From the Medtronic CEO perspective:

• Cheaper than rebuilding Evolut from scratch
• Eliminates Edwards-style haemodynamic leapfrogging risk
• Instantly resets Medtronic as category leader
• Highly accretive by year 3–4 post-close

From Anteris shareholders’ perspective:

• Prices in success without assuming total market domination
• Reflects large-cap medtech multiples, not biotech hope
• Removes execution, regulatory, and commercial risk

Final answer (clean version)

• Anteris shares outstanding (2030): ~145 million
• Implied acquisition equity value: ~$8–8.5bn USD
• Offer price: ~$55–60 USD per share
• Medtronic outlay for remaining 80%: ~$6.4–6.8bn USD

@PabloEskyBruh you might recall that just a few months ago I assigned a 40-45% likelihood that Medtronic will take them out.

Disc: Held