*** Edited 23/01/2026 ***

Back of a morning beer coaster calculations based on the latest cap raise including the Medtronic deal. Consume with all the caveats that implies.

Assumptions by 2032 (all in USD until the end)

• Approximately 45,000 DurAVR valves sold per year (about a 30% capture of a conservative estimate of the USA TAVR market).
• Approximately $30,000 in sales per unit with a profit margin of 50%.
• Cash burn of $100 million USD per year until 2032 (6 x $100m = $600m).
• No further cap raises until 2028. Cash obtained from issue of new capital (or acquisition) at fairly non-dilutive prices post 2028.
• About 150 million shares on issue (up from approximately 100 million today — so about 50% further dilution).
• P/E of 15 (again conservative based on growth and runway assumed).
• Gravy not included: Europe; Valve-in-Valve; and any premium unit pricing due to clinical superiority.

45,000 x 15,000 = 675,000,000 earnings

675,000,000 x 15 = $10,125,000,000

10,125/150 = $67.50 per share price

Discounted back by 10% per year to today = $38.10 USD or about $55.70 AUD.

You’ll notice the biggest change to my valuation is the assumption of higher market capture. By 2032 I suspect Anteris will have been acquired fully by Medtronic — but for the equivalent / relevant valuation along at whichever point along the development continuum that ultimately took place. Essentially, Medtronic knows that by 2032 — assuming clinical success — DurAVR is at least a $10 billion USD product to them.

***Edited 09/11/2025***

There has been some good news and milestones achieved since May 2025, which I think are ultimately de-risking for Anteris. However, I was perhaps too optimistic about potential dilution. It appears the market is also concerned about this. I’m redoing my valuation to account for it. I’m assuming average capital to be raised at $7.50 USD (which is where the bulk of outstanding options have their strike price).

Assumptions by 2032 (all in USD until the end)

• Approximately 15,000 DurAVR valves sold per year (about a 10% capture of a conservative estimate of the USA TAVR market).
• Approximately $30,000 in sales per unit with a profit margin of 50%.
• Cash burn of $100 million USD per year until 2032 (6 x $100m = $600m).
• Cash obtained from issue of new capital at average of $7.50 USD per share ($600/$7.50 =80 million new shares.).
• About 120 million shares on issue (up from approximately 40 million today — so about 200% dilution).
• P/E of 15 (again conservative based on growth and runway assumed).
• Gravy not included: Europe; Valve-in-Valve; and any premium unit pricing due to clinical superiority.

15,000 x 15,000 = 225,000,000 earnings

225,000,000 x 15 = $3,375,000,000

3,375/120 = $28.125 per share price

Discounted back by 10% per year to today = $15.87 USD or about $24.45 AUD.

Again, same caveats about the large number of variables — which I maintain are all very conservative. For the record also I don’t actually expect dilution to be this bad. Rather, I’m more making the point that even if it is, there is still value at today’s prices.

*** Edited 08/05/025 ***

Assumptions by 2032 (all in USD until the end)

• Approximately 15,000 DurAVR valves sold per year (about a 10% capture of a conservative estimate of the USA TAVR market).
• Approximately $30,000 in sales per unit with a profit margin of 50%.
• About 60 million shares on issue (up from approximately 38 million today — to factor in remaining options and any further dilutive capital).
• P/E of 15 (again conservative based on growth and runway assumed).
• Gravy not included: Europe; Valve-in-Valve; and any premium unit pricing due to clinical superiority.

15,000 x 15,000 = 225,000,000 earnings

225,000,000 x 15 = $3,375,000,000

3,375/60 =$56.25 per share price

Discounted back by 10% per year to today = $28.86 USD or about $44.00 AUD.

It’s my lowest valuation for a while, but that isn’t a reflection of any wavering conviction. I just wanted to state the case for value very simply this time. My actual investment thesis involves much loftier assumptions, whereas this is just my starting point. You can see how it doesn’t take much optimistic tweaking of any of the variables to generate some pretty staggering potential outcomes.