Pinned straw:
You guys @mikebrisy, @thunderhead, @DrPete, @Silky84, @twee, @Ipsum, @UlladullaDave, @jcmleng, @Wini, @BkrDzn, @NewbieHK & @Strawman are way smarter and more experienced than me when it comes to creating a business case or running your eye over financials. I have to rely, at least to some extent, on my PA (enter AI tool of the month here) and my opinion of the Board and Operation Staff. I remember back in May last year how ridiculous it was that Tony gave himself a massive lump of bonus shares, without and KPIs attached. Basically, he simply had to turn up to work each day for these shares to be gifted to him. I've got to say, that was a massive red flag for me there and then and I sold off all I had IRL and SM portfolios, even though I loved the story and the posts from the SM techs that made me feel sad to have departed from a local company that may be about to kick some serious goals.
I actually remembering at the time (and even posted) that given my luck, $AIM would go to the stars as soon as I bailed, as always seems to be the case for us poor suffering investors, but I just wasn't willing to have someone pulling the strings and feathering their own nest any time they felt like it.
Call it more luck than expertise in this case, but I'm glad I jumped and won't be buying back in while Tony is still at the helm.
The CFO attempted to clarify this- i think they are using end of FY25 ARR as 24 mill- as in june 25 the monthly total was 2 million a month- and they are moving to using the exit monthly total to annualise ARR- and are aiming for ARR of 36million by end of FY26 or 3 million a month. Jason singh did specifically point out this change to how they would report ARR- again i think it has been poorly communicated
AIM has copped an absolute beating today- and probably rightly so given the withdrawal of Tonys lofty ambitious targets. Personally i never used the “60mill of EBITDA by FY29” as valuation tool- i used half of it- i will now sit down and look at the numbers closely and see if that target is still feasible.
i would like to see management take ownership of this faux pas and learn from it.
underneath all of this is still an interesting business- but management have some bridges to rebuild!
to be contrarian- i just topped up my RL position- more akin to life threatening haemorrhage than a bit of blood on the streets
The drop in technology revenue across EMEA, APAC and flat in America on H2 FY25 is not good. The result would be even worse without the pickup in services revenue in APAC.
Including hardware and support revenue in the ARR number is on the nose too. I can see it's designed to shift to a ARR multiple story, but they missed that window.
Not sure how to think about the increase in the deferred tech revenue to 10m.
The bull case was always about the new products, there has obviously been a sales focus on LEXI voice but not much info on pipeline/uptake yet. Withdrawal of targets implies this is not going well and that means the bull case needs to be revised.
Will review more after the call.
