Pinned straw:
Plenty of great takes on the AIM result last week.
The frustrating thing is Tony's problem is largely self-induced. Again.
The removal of the FY29 targets? Sure, that wasn't great. But then we didn't believe them, and many of us thought the targets should never have been announced - at least externally. The fact it was implied they need a new souped-up encoder to handle Lexi Voice processing? One that hasn't been released yet? That was a bit more of a kick in the guts. Especially when Tony had shown us the encoders (with 'Lexi Voice' prominently badged on the front) at a Strawman meeting last year. It felt a little bit like that scene in Disclosure when Michael Douglas is aware of an issue with the company's hardware and his boss - Demi Moore - wants to bury it.
The Setting: A sleek, high-tech boardroom at AI-Media. The air is thick with the smell of expensed R&D and the evolution of a business model.
Tony: "You look tense, Noddy. Is it the fall in Technology revenue or are you just surprised to see me?"
Shareholder: "I’m surprised by the narrative, Tony. You told me the Encoder was the moat. It's the on-ramp, it's the fly screen. Hell, I lost track of the number of analogies you used. I'll tell you one thing it's not and that's fit for purpose!"
Tony: [Pours a glass of high-margin SaaS revenue] "The moat hasn't changed. It’s just... evolving. Your pretty peepers will get to see what it's evolved into at the NAB show in April."
Shareholder: "But you've announced declining financials, rapidly slowing sales of the boxes, a change in the business model, new key metrics (again) and withdrawal of FY29 targets all in the same day."
Tony: [Siddles over] "Hush my pretty. Do you remember the time I showed you the inside of my box? It was at that Strawman meeting."
Shareholder: "I do. I remember being surprised how roomy it was."
Tony: [Leans in close, dangerously close] "Would you like to see it again?"
Shareholder: [Backing toward the door, checking the ASX ticker] "I don't think that would be appropriate, Tony. I think I'll go take a look at what Hansen are doing."
I've got mixed feelings about Gaurav Sodhi (I sometimes think he likes to be contrary for the sake of it), but one thing he says that I do like is that it's ok to panic as long as you do it early. I panicked on Thursday morning and sold at the open. As a result I got out at 51 cents. The trouble is that it's now declined so much that it looks like good value...maybe. I suspect the lack of trust Tony has engendered will give me plenty of time to decide if that's actually the case or not.
btw, kidding about Hansen. Things haven't got that bad.
[Held Strawman only]
You guys @mikebrisy, @thunderhead, @DrPete, @Silky84, @twee, @Ipsum, @UlladullaDave, @jcmleng, @Wini, @BkrDzn, @NewbieHK & @Strawman are way smarter and more experienced than me when it comes to creating a business case or running your eye over financials. I have to rely, at least to some extent, on my PA (enter AI tool of the month here) and my opinion of the Board and Operation Staff. I remember back in May last year how ridiculous it was that Tony gave himself a massive lump of bonus shares, without and KPIs attached. Basically, he simply had to turn up to work each day for these shares to be gifted to him. I've got to say, that was a massive red flag for me there and then and I sold off all I had IRL and SM portfolios, even though I loved the story and the posts from the SM techs that made me feel sad to have departed from a local company that may be about to kick some serious goals.
I actually remembering at the time (and even posted) that given my luck, $AIM would go to the stars as soon as I bailed, as always seems to be the case for us poor suffering investors, but I just wasn't willing to have someone pulling the strings and feathering their own nest any time they felt like it.
Call it more luck than expertise in this case, but I'm glad I jumped and won't be buying back in while Tony is still at the helm.
The CFO attempted to clarify this- i think they are using end of FY25 ARR as 24 mill- as in june 25 the monthly total was 2 million a month- and they are moving to using the exit monthly total to annualise ARR- and are aiming for ARR of 36million by end of FY26 or 3 million a month. Jason singh did specifically point out this change to how they would report ARR- again i think it has been poorly communicated
AIM has copped an absolute beating today- and probably rightly so given the withdrawal of Tonys lofty ambitious targets. Personally i never used the “60mill of EBITDA by FY29” as valuation tool- i used half of it- i will now sit down and look at the numbers closely and see if that target is still feasible.
i would like to see management take ownership of this faux pas and learn from it.
underneath all of this is still an interesting business- but management have some bridges to rebuild!
to be contrarian- i just topped up my RL position- more akin to life threatening haemorrhage than a bit of blood on the streets