Discl: Not Held

Great podcast, it was!

Was pleased to hear of @Wini's selling out of AIM. It vindicated my exit decision that AIM is now just too problematic vs opportunities elsewhere, then the subsequent plunge to 0.24, which would have doubled my losses with no recovery in sight anytime soon.

I don’t agree with the commentary that the hardware pivot into hardware-as-a-service (HAAS) was to build up ARR. From a customer perspective, a HAAS offering IS operationally and financially attractive from a “spread-my-budget” and “vendor-will-maintain-hardware-for-me” perspectives. The hardware cost is very small dollars in upfront capex terms, it is really nothing money when spread over 3 years and not all customers may take that up. Not hard for me to belive that the pivot was to meet customer demand by fine-tuning the offering, the ARR impact is simply the consequence of that offering change.

Jason can also very easily pre-empt this by reporting the HAAS and SAAS components as 2 separate revenue and 2 separate ARR lines. If he doesn’t do this, then both he and Tony are completely tone deaf to the market. But clearly, it is another “transition” that has to be clearly explained, amidst an already complex transition narrative.

I had a look at the AIM chart to get a sense of perspective, and asked myself whether it makes sense to buy back in at these levels as I think AIM's technical orchestration moat is a very strong one:

• Quite a shocker actually, as the AIM price is back to close to all-time-low levels of 12 May 2023 of 21.5c at the peak of AIM negativity - the yellow bar is the all-time low support level that goes back to Jul 2022
• This IS rock bottom, totally giving up 100% of 4x gains since - all that hard work to actually transition and regain market confidence in the last 3+ years was completely undone with the results call, so this must really hurt, big time, but hell, you absolutely reap what you sow
• It took Tony a solid 2 years to convince the market that he was on to something and doing the right thing by transitioning the busines to take humans out of the loop - this was from July 22 to July 2024, before the share price showed signs of sustained life. I wasn't watching AIM then, but there probably wasn't a credibility issue then as much as it was just hard explaining to the market how decimating your current business for a greater long-term good was a good thing.

Without clear traction on Lexi Voice, with management credibility shot to pieces, and a “transitioning” narrative that is hard to clearly grasp, I can’t quite explain to myself why I would buy back in at these levels.

Don't want capital stuck for another 1-2 years potentially, if history is any indication, and having to rely 100% on Tony's ability to spin his way of today's situation, before there is any meaningful upward movement again.

I think I would need substantial (and I mean a s**tload) amount of insider purchases to give me some confidence that this is worth considering again.

@OxyBBear, agreed! Out of curiosity, what amount of Tony's own coin would move you to reconsider? $1m? $3m $5m? $10m?

The last time Tony bought in with his own coin, if not wrong, was in Dec 2024: $525k @0.525 - he has lost 50% of that on paper. It was a good sign of confidence back then. I haven't gone back to seeing what he bought into, if at all, when the price was at these levels from mid-2022 onwards.

At 0.24, market cap is now ~$50.3m. If he does buy in, every ~$1m would suck up ~2% liquidity, which will undo the freeing up of liquidity that Tony mysteriously craved for after the FY25 results.

@jcmleng, I think Tony purchased 1m shares at $0.525 = $525k in June 2025 and before that 250,000 shares @ $0.80 = $200k on 5th December 2024.

Considering he is already down substantially on both parcels I think a 4m purchase @ $0.25 = $1m would be sufficient for me, maybe even less. 

I think by moving the goal posts the investing community is now unsure and want some signs that Tony still has confidence in the business and the only way is through a substantial director purchase. 

A bit left field, but if Tony was to forego the LTIP for retention shares until the shares get back to like a 50c range, would that be enough to move the dial?

I know its not much from a monetary value but its a signal that his outcomes are aligned with the business.

LOL, @OxyBBear and @jcmleng, love that you guys think Tones has a lazy $1m, or $10m!!, to throw into the pot. Is it all the fancy shirts he wears??

It's the glasses rings and slick haircut

@SudMav, Tony's alignment with the AIM business was never the issue for me. I have always felt that AIM = Tony = AIM, as in, Tony's very being and existence is driven by AIM. So, this must be hurting him big time, as it did a few years back when the market last smashed AIM. The deal-breaker issues for me is that much-touted Lexi Voice has not taken off the ground, and so, there is not much growth to look forward to in the near-ish term, and the total loss of credibility. So, I don't think foregoing the LTIP is going to move the dial for me.

@DrPete, have no idea what his personal wealth is ... but desperate times call for desperate measures! Lost credibility and slower Lexi Voice growth are 2 issues that will take time to fix - at least 2 reporting cycles to a bare minimum "trend". Which makes a "sizeable" insider purchase as the 1 remaining lever he can immediately pull to inject some semblance of confidence. Just not sure that this time, it will make as big a dent as his other insider purchases, if the fatigue here at SM is anything to go by!

Ron Shamgar at TAMIM has posted twice on Linkedin about the absence of director purchases at these depressed prices. Looks like he hasn't sold.