@Wakem after listening to the SM interview (well done Andrew) i will alter my assessment. the issue here appears to be the sales function. as per Phil Fishers book sales are critical. the ceo said, several times that salespeople were an issue and they sell a process not a product (read hard sales). it appears soem sales people have left. my experiecne with sales people is that they are good at sellng what sells itself, and many struggle at selling anything complex. listening to the CEo the sales process sounds complex. the client c suite love it, the implementors not so much. this could be a real problem. even if it only means they dont reach anywhere near their potential. sounds as if they need to make the sales process smooth and effective. hopefully doable with the right people.
the product looks to have some runway before it meets the roadblocks. so there is a sweet spot where it can grow without attracting too much attention, but it needs to get its sales function correct. is Ian the right guy for this ? idk. he has constantly commented on issues with sales. i guess we will see it in the numbers in time. thats a bear case for you.
@Wakem im not an expert on 3Dp and dont want to up set anybody in what is clearly a favoured company. below is my rev/pbt/cfo chart of 3DP, actually this is not too bad for a growing tech company. so thats not a bearish point it is keeping to around cf b/e which is ok while top ;line goes higher. there are two things that stand out to me about this company. firstly the size of the revenue base is small. below $20m rev i dont think the business case is proven. i once was a part owner of a business with $25m revenues, and i thought that was small--no longer exists. at its current grwoth rates 3DP should get there in the next couple of years. this leads to my second point, in that as it grows it will encounter more compettion. i have been reading and listening to a lot of US companies and the spend in this area is huge. it is not a undiscovered space. when Australian companies say they have no competition, i just dont believe it, maybe at this level of revenue (small) there is no comptetiotn but almsot by definition as they grow they will hit someone. can they beat that someone? at the current market cap there is some expectation built in. as i said i am no expert and i have yet to listen to the call with SM, maybe that changse my view.