Forum Topics SGI SGI Bull Case

Pinned straw:

Added 3 months ago

Since it has been a bit quiet on the SGI front I thought I’d post a letter from EGP capital (who show up on the register as National Nominees Ltd).

They have been trimming their position recently but their forward analysis sounds quite bullish to me:

https://egpcapital.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/2024_03.pdf

(SGI commentary starts around halfway down page 3)

Strawman
3 months ago

Thanks for sharing @conrad

Tony's rationale for Stealth is very much aligned with my own thoughts -- an increasingly efficient operation that is gobbling up market share in a highly fragmented market and with a clear path for further revenue growth. Importantly, as @DrPete originally posited, there still remains a good deal of asymmetry in return outcomes and the case for value can be made even if you heavily discount management expectations.

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RhinoInvestor
3 months ago

Wow … fund manager massive underperformance to ASX200 means I took this article with a grain of salt. The typo’s and grammatical issues further watered down the weight as did the quite rubbery figures in his forward projections … bottom line:

  • My biggest competitor (Blackwoods) sucks is not enough of a reason to buy (especially if they have the might of Wesfarmers behind them)
  • Way too many ifs in forward projections … take on big debt / raise capital for growth / drastic swings in PE ratio
  • At least he has a scenario that’s pessimistic of Management’s projections (but I’d rather be buying into management forecasts as I have strong conviction in them)


That said, I still think SGI has some runway.

DISC: Very small holding IRL and SM


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Tom73
3 months ago

Likewise, thanks @conrad , it does a good job summing up the asymmetrical bet on offer and how the operating leverage as it tips further into profit is going to be massive in % terms (low base) and the current PE doesn't account for this, so at much lower PE's in the future the value is many multiples of what is currently - even at levels well below management guidance (at guidance it's insane). My valuation ignores the 60m additional business discussed and sticks to a 10% organic growth and I come to a $0.74 value.

As to @RhinoInvestor point on fund manager performance, it looks like they got smashed like I did in 2021... take that period out of a long track record and they are ok... but could be better.

I hope SGI provides a significant improvement to their fund record... oh and mine!

Disc: I own RL+SM

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