You'd think once it turns it'll bounce hard once they all have to cover.

As we have discussed on SM a few times, it is an interesting one, shorts waiting for the impact on IEL due to the change in student numbers, being a decline, any sign that IEL has navigated that without it being a big deal will see a panic cover. IEL has shown an ability to adjust its cost base before as well. shorts will cover when the earnings impact (if any/much?) is known (basically quantifiable) and uncertainty disappears. imo

The high short position is a part of my investment thesis, we could have a significant short squeeze if the results hold up - they don't even have to do well, just not as bad as the short's think! It's a solid business, but at $30 it needed to be "perfect", the current price is fine for "ok" and if it is "good" there is healthy upside and potentially a short squeeze pop back to $30 which would be an exit point.

I wanted to buy in below $15 but short position pulled back a little about a month ago and I thought I may miss the chance so bought a small allocation around current prices. I am glad the short positions have grown and am looking for lower prices to buy more.

Disc: I own.

@Tom73 I agree with your thesis. My expectation is that FY24 is going to be pretty good, and it is FY25 that will be weaker. But I think the market is expecting the weaakness to show through earlier - and so some stand to get burned!