A hodgepodge collection of charts and thoughts on ARB. Full disclosure, I own it and also have the investing "P Plates" on, so I know just enough to be dangerous. Do your own research as always.
(I'm not sure if it's a good way to do it but all 2026 numbers are the 1st half results x2)
For me ARB has existed in three modes. From beginning until 2020 is was a steady, reliable compound growth machine. 2021 bought a big step up in revenue, margin and earnings. Then 2021 until present has seen slow/flat revenue growth, with a draw back on margin and earnings. You have to zoom out a fair bit to see that story, but it's a very different looking company depending on how far out you zoom.
-Recent share price has loosely followed margin. The big questions for me are; is the margin dropping a sign of something wrong under the hood, a return to normal post a COVID/money printing boom, or customer behaviour changing?
The below screen grabs are pretty back of the napkin stuff, data pulled from Commsec, old company reports from the asx site and more recently from the ARB investor page. I built it with no intention of sharing it, I don't think there are errors with the scaling or numbers, but double check it by all means.
REVENUE:
NET PROFIT:
My framing is that it's a reliable compounder that's returning to normal after a few wild years. I think margin is back to where it was pre 2021 (give or take). They've managed to hold onto most of the 2021 big step up in revenue, haven't sacrificed too much WRT margin, and have nailed the landing on USA expansion. All in a fairly unfriendly world with tariffs, inflation, politics and currency all over the place.
Market sales sectors haven't changed much, a slight move towards less reliance on the Australian market but not drastic.
That's me, looking at the last 5 years it's going backwards, looking at the last 20 years it's bottom left, top right. Which trend will win out, and is it finally cheap enough to buy into the slow and steady growth if the 20 year trend continues?
ARB putting up a decent result in a challenging environment. Decent sales growth with a bit of a hit to NPAT.
Challenges include, the Aussie dollar trading at an all time low against the Thai Baht (where a lot of the products are made), Tariffs against imports to the US, difficulty attracting and retaining skilled labor in Aus and around a 15-20% reduction in new car sales across the key models to ARB.
On the positive side, export markets have all seen growth, a lot of the Aussie stores are seeing refits and investments as well as the HQ, investments into an online portal and digital marketing. The big one is the US strategy seems to be paying off, having reached profitability milestones early despite a fairly challenging economic and political environment.
I'm encouraged by the fact they're still seeing sales growth in a challenging environment, and they're taking the time and spending the money to shore up the foundations. If they can do that in a challenging environment I'm keen to see what they can do if/when they can get on a roll with new car sales and a more favourable consumer spending environment in Australia (if there is one thing that aussies love more than seeing equity grow in their property, it's stripping that equity out to buy a caravan and do up the 4x4).
As always time will tell but I feel they're positioning themselves well for the future, just need to wait for it to arrive now.
-Held irl and on SM
