16-May-2024: Not exactly furious agreement between the brokers on PNV:

Yeah, that's a wide range, Target Prices from $1/share up to $2.75/share and 4 different calls from the 4 brokers - Sell, Hold, Add and Outperform.

Mind you, all four of them wrote those most recent client notes BEFORE this PNV Presentation at the Macquarie Australia Conference last week (on May 8th): PNV-Macquarie-Australia-Conference---Presentation.PDF

This announcement was released on the same day: First-$A9M-sales-month-and-$A10M-revenue-month.PDF

It may not be enough to shift those bearish brokers' views - or their target prices - but it looks positive to me:

I think they've passed an inflection point now, with positive cashflow and positive NPAT for H1, and about to announce results in August for a profitable full financial year (FY2024). The brokers arguments seem to be mostly that people are extrapolating too much sales growth occuring too quickly in the future and that the ramp up is likely to take longer than these bullish investors are expecting - and that PNV don't have the market all to themselves, so there's a competition argument from OM suggesting the R&D spend from PNV will need to remain significant if they are to stay competitive long-term. Well, Duhh! That's what they do.

I added PNV to my SMSF yesterday (Wednesday 15th May 2024) @ $2.17/share, and doubled my PNV position here also. It's not within my cicle of competence, however I'm confident enough that they have a viable product that works and is providing significant benefits, they are now profitable, they're growing at a decent clip, they have a long and wide runway of growth across the entire world and they've only really scratched the surface so far.

I think their results announcement and full year report in August might give the share price a boost, now that they're profitable and the growth across all important metrics is continuing at pace, so I don't claim to know much about the sector, but I reckon this one is de-risked enough for me to hold without a full understanding of every facet of the industry. I also hold CSL and I'm no expert on what they do either, but I don't need to be - coz CSL have their track record of outstanding TSRs over time - mostly through share price appreciation.

I don't mind David Williams - I had a good look into a few of the things he's done in the past last night - and posted a straw here on that - titled #Management - under PNV - and while I generally do not like management to be over-promotional, he's the Chairman, not the CEO or the MD - so he can hype the company up all he wants - and let the management get on with running the company. David is entitled to his opinion - he might not hold 5% of the company, but he holds enough, about $46m dollars worth (21.4m shares).

In terms of valuation, I wouldn't expect a company like this to look cheap, but they do look reasonably priced here considering their exceptional future growth prospects, and that's OK with me.

In terms of the wide range of broker target prices and calls, it suggests to me that either (a) they're not all "experts" in this field, or (b) experts when all given the same data can come to seriously different conclusions about what it is all likely to mean in the future. So what hope do I have? So ignore the valuations and back the management and the product - that's what I've chosen to do now. I haven't thrown the farm at it, but I've got exposure. PNV and CSL. My healthcare sector exposure. Plus some through Wesfarmers' new health division. Plus a little bit of NEU and PME here on SM but none in real life any longer. That'll do. Not in my wheelhouse (circle of competence), but I can live with that exposure to the sector.

15-May-2024: Actually this straw is specifically about the Chairman, rather than about the rest of PNV Management.

Quite a character, our Mr. David John Williams. Chairman of three ASX-listed companies (PNV, IIQ, RMY) and past Chairman of at least three more companies - Medical Developments International (MVP.asx, for 13 years to 28-April-2023), Tassal Group (acquired by Canadian aquaculture company Cooke Inc. in August 2022), and Austin Group (family owned private company); David has also been a director of Select Harvests (SHV, 5 years to 18-Feb-2004) and Amcal which was acquired by Sigma Pharmaceuticals, now Sigma Healthcare, SIG.asx, who entered the ASX200 Index last week (on May 10th) when Boral (BLD) was removed. SIG's m/cap was recently significantly increased by their merger with Chemist Warehouse Group (a.k.a. CW Group).

David is also a lover of either red wine or lots of sunlight, perhaps both, and proficient user of photoshop one suspects.

With a social media presence and a flair for promotion.

(4) David Williams | LinkedIn

David Williams (@DavidJ_Williams) / X

Chris Judd Invest | Following yesterday’s Talk Ya Book with David Williams, find out why he likes Polynovo (ASX: PNV) and Rate My Agent (ASX: RMY). To watch… | Instagram

David Williams | Hort Connections

David Williams (businessnews.com.au)

David Williams is also Managing Director of corporate advisory firm Kidder Williams:

David Williams

David has over 30 years’ experience providing mergers and acquisitions, capital raising and strategic advice. Prior to establishing Kidder Williams, David was the Managing Director of Challenger Corporate Finance, Head of the Melbourne corporate finance office of SG Hambros, Head of M&A at ANZ McCaughan, and Head of M&A at Arthur Andersen.

David holds an Honours and Master’s degree in Economics and conducted Ph.D. research on Cooperatives and their capital structures. He is a Fellow of the Australian Institute of Company Directors. David is Chairman of ASX-listed companies; PolyNovo Limited and RMA Group Limited. [Also Chairman of INOVIQ Limited (IIQ).]

Kidder Williams:

Kidder Williams - Kidder Williams

We are a leading adviser to the food, agriculture and beverages industries, and also have extensive experience in medical and digital technologies.

We are globally connected and source international capital for Australian companies.

Kidder Williams Limited provide Corporate Advisory and Investment Banking services to private and ASX-listed companies, including: Corporate Finance Strategy, Mergers & acquisitions, Divestments and demergers, Capital structure, Equity and debt raisings and IPO. We are a leading adviser to the food, agriculture and beverages industries, and have extensive experience in medical and digital technologies. We are globally connected and source international capital for Australian companies. Kidder Williams Limited was originally part of the Mariner Group and set up on its own in 2005.

--- ends ---

OK, so, to recap:

David Williams is:

• the Chairman of PolyNovo Ltd (PNV), and owns 21.4m PNV shares worth around 3% of the company with a current market value of about $46m (@ $2.16/share);
• the Managing Director of corporate advisory firm Kidder Williams;
• the Chairman of INOVIQ Ltd (IIQ), and owns 5.43% of that company, that holding currently being worth around $2.7m;
• the Chairman of RMA Global Ltd (RMY), and owns 184.4m RMY shares, or 33% of the company, that holding currently worth around $12.7m;
• a previous Chairman of Medical Developments International Ltd (MVP), and a current substantial shareholder of MVP with a 13.35% stake worth around $4m (MVP's entire m/cap is now down to only around $36m); and
• a previous Chairman and substantial shareholder of Tassal Group Ltd, buying it out of receivership and arranging the sale of Tassal in August 2022 to Canadian aquaculture company Cooke Aquaculture Inc.

"It isn’t Melbourne investment banker David Williams’ first foray into the salmon game." Photo: Jesse Marlow

Source: Former Tassal Group owner David Williams back for second helping (afr.com) (22-June-2022)

David Williams has also previously been the Chairman of private family-owned company Austin Group and a previous director of Select Harvests (SHV, 5 years to 18-Feb-2004) and also of Amcal (now part of Sigma Healthcare, SIG.asx). Through his work at Kidder Williams, David has worked on numerous mergers and IPOs (SPC & Ardmona, Incitec Pivot), acquisitions (Bega buying back Vegemite), divestments and asset sales (SPC for Coca-Cola Amatil, Tasman Group to JBS S.A. of Brazil, selling Tassal out of receivership to Cooke Aquaculture Inc. of Canada), and other corporate actions, strategic reviews, recapitalisations, etc.

The man has some solid form, and is a rather unique individual.

Further Reading:

Medical Developments International (ASX: MVP) Providing An Alternative To Opioid Addiction - A Rich Life (11-June-2021, by "Downunder Value")

About INOVIQ | INOVIQ

RMA Global Limited (rma-global.com)

Home - Medical Developments International

Kidder Williams - Team

PolyNovo:

Revolutionary Synthetic Skin Substitutes | PolyNovo

Investor Relations | PolyNovo

PolyNovo | Healing. Redefined.

Recorded 27-Jan-2021:  LivewireMarkets.com: Buy Hold Sell: The 5 most-tipped small caps

PNV is the first small cap cab off the rank on this BHS episode from LivewireMarkets.  Market Matters' James Gerrish and Tribeca Investment Partners' Jun Bei Liu both rate PNV as a "Sell".

Polynovo (ASX:PNV)

Bella Kidman: Jun Bei, I'll start with you. Polynovo - they develop and manufacture technology for skin graphs. Buy Hold or sell?

Jun Bei Liu (Sell): It's a sell for me because I'd much rather be in a different business, it’s very similar, it's called Aroa, and it is a very similar business, but trading at a fraction of the multiple. Now, Polynovo is a great market leader, it's innovated the market, it's expanded the market, but more recently it has disappointed the market in terms of the impact from COVID-related shut down in the hospital system and the like, and potentially it will come through. But it is trading on a very, very expensive multiple. And on that basis, I just think you'll get much better return coming out of buying Aroa, which is a very similar business coming out of New Zealand and just reported today, great numbers. Of course at the same time, they're all being impacted by the same COVID impact. So it’s very leveraged to the second half and the earnings coming through quite quickly. It’s innovated its business and actually has a very, very good clinical study to support the efficacy of its product, Aroa itself. So yes, on this basis, I think much rather to be in the up and coming market leader than the incumbent one that's trading on much higher multiple.

Bella Kidman: James, Polynovo was up 107% in 2020. It hasn't really kicked the year off the same way. Buy, hold, or sell?

James Gerrish (Sell): Yes, I've got a sell on it. Really expensive stock that has missed in terms of their outlook. I think that's a really key thing for investors to monitor. If something is priced for perfection and it doesn't deliver it, I think it'll be under a fair amount of pressure going forward. They're super high beta stocks. We don't trade a lot in the biotech space, simply because they're really high beta we’re a high conviction portfolio. So it's really hard to put a really decent market weight into, or a decent portfolio weight I should say, into a stock that's so uncertain and non-predictable in the short term and has such big swings in share price.

--- Other stocks covered include Lynas Rare Earths (LYC), Pointsbet Holdings (PBH), EML Payments (EML), Zip Co (Z1P) and Nearmap (NEA).

[I do have a small position in PNV, and they are also on my Strawman.com scorecard.]

07-Sep-2020:  Victorian Government Grant for Hernia Plant

PolyNovo is pleased to announce it has received a grant from the Victorian Government, Department of Jobs, Innovation and Trade for up to $252,000. This funding is to support the purchase of equipment and the development of the hernia cleanroom which is in progress at our Port Melbourne facility. The hernia facility will manufacture our NovoSorb Syntrel hernia product.

Managing Director, Paul Brennan said, “We are grateful to the Victorian Government for their support of PolyNovo’s investment in local manufacturing capacity. This plant will produce a product that will change the way hernias are managed world-wide. It is a matter of pride that these products will be manufactured in Port Melbourne using Australian technology.”

This announcement has been authorised by PolyNovo Secretary Jan-Marcel Gielen.

Correction: Page 9 of the FY20 results presentation released to the ASX on the 26th August 2020 should read BTM product sales for the 2H FY20 are up 87.5% on the 2H FY19.

About NovoSorb®

NovoSorb® is a novel range of bio-resorbable polymers that can be produced in many formats including, film, fibre, foam, and coatings. NovoSorb’s unique properties provide excellent biocompatibility, control over physical properties, and programmable bio-resorption profile.  NovoSorb® BTM is a dermal scaffold for the regeneration of the dermis when lost through extensive surgery or burn.

About PolyNovo®

PolyNovo is an Australian-based medical device company that designs, develops and manufactures dermal regeneration solutions (NovoSorb® BTM) using its patented NovoSorb® biodegradable polymer technology. Our development program covers Breast Sling, Hernia, and Orthopaedic applications. For further information and market presentations see www.polynovo.com

10-July-2020:  Trading Update

Also:  Pivotal Trial Protocol - Update

Trading Update:

• Record US Sales in June
• First Sales in UK
• FY20 Sales Guidance

US

June 2020 was a new record sales month in the US. Since the record sales month announced on 7 April the company has opened 7 new hospital accounts. From July 2019 to 30 June 2020 there has been a 67% increase in hospital account in the US. Despite the adverse impact of COVID on many businesses, Polynovo has had success opening new accounts and achieving record sales. To achieve this, the company is using a number of tools to support surgeons where face to face meetings are not possible.

UK

The company is pleased to announce its first sale in the UK. There have been six operations in England and Scotland and for this reason we expect additional new term sales.

EU

There have been numerous applications of the BTM in the DACH countries (Germany, Austria and Switzerland) and sales are growing accordingly as we gain traction across the region.

TRADING UPDATE

The company repeats earlier guidance that product sales for FY20 are likely to at least double FY19.

Sales for the June quarter were 33% greater than the March quarter, but this includes a record US result for June.

Managing Director, Paul Brennan said, “These sales results for NovoSorb BTM are very strong given the difficulties faced with CoVid19. Our teams have maintained their engagement with customers, and we continue to see sales growth.”

Chairman, David Williams said, “Sales are still lumpy but there is a strong upward trajectory as surgeons embrace our product and the patient results it gives. While FY20 sales will show impressive growth over FY19, the sales run-rate is more impressive and should be a better indicator of the near-term future.”

05-May-2020:  PolyNovo presents at Macquarie - presentation slides

That link is to the 28 page presentation to be given by Paul Brennan at the Macquarie small and mid-cap virtual investor forum today, Tuesday 5 May, 2020.

23-Apr-2020:  First BTM use in Canada

PolyNovo is pleased to announce the first use of NovoSorb BTM in Canada. This case was initiated by one of Canada’s leading surgeons who is a key opinion leader in this field. 
 
PolyNovo has not yet applied for regulatory clearance in Canada as the country has some unique requirements compared with the US, Australian and European regulatory processes. PolyNovo is working towards a Canadian regulatory filing in CY2021. 
 
Product for this first case was supplied under an exemption scheme made on an individual case by case application.  Health Canada’s Special Access Program (SAP) allows doctors to gain access to medical devices that have not yet been approved for sale in Canada. Special Access is requested in emergency use cases or when conventional therapies have failed, are unavailable or are unsuitable to treat a patient. All medical devices that have not been approved for use in Canada, require special access authorization prior to being imported and/or sold in Canada. 
 
This first case was a child with extensive burns. PolyNovo is very pleased we could assist in the care of this child and from all reports the child progressing well. The  PolyNovo family is proud to be able to improve the outcome for all patients but particularly when a child is involved. 
 
PolyNovo’s CEO, Mr Paul Brennan said “Our US team have worked closely with the Canadian surgeon and the hospital to get NovoSorb BTM into Canada for urgent use last week and over the weekend. Canada is a very important market for us in the near term and seeing demand for our product in advance of market entry is a reflection of the strength of the global key opinion leader network and the high regard for NovoSorb BTM.”