https://app.sharelinktechnologies.com/announcement/asx/426bd196f42207e176ccf9f0a1b88618

So this just says almost word for word what the article said.

Let me digest this a bit more...

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=TAWEB_WRE170_a_GGL&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fbusiness%2Fmargin-call%2Fpolynovo-chair-david-williams-pushed-to-resign-adrian-portelli-posts-about-being-sick-from-oysters-day-before-court-hearing%2Fnews-story%2F0ea229cbd915430b06b0194850d73f3e&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=HIGH-Segment-1-SCORE&V21spcbehaviour=append

Basically alleging that DW has been bullying and said som inappropriate  things.

DW does like to say some things that are right on the edge. But I personally love that. For instance, his comments about Gina Rinehart and Andrew Forrest being the custodians of lands in Australia I find very witty. And I have Aboriginal blood in me.

The part about Bullying is strange. It doesn't come across that way in any of the webinars. They seem to work really well as a team.

Why now......???

• Shorts obviously knew this was happening (why is this not insider trading?)
• Maybe part of the short play to push down when RoW growth was slow.
• Also explains why DW was not happy in the H1FY2025 webinar.

What happens if DW resigns?

• Will it push the SP down (yep I think it will)
• Will DW sell his shares (Maybe....but he loves to make good deals...so I think this is unlikley at these SP levels)
• Who would step up to Chair? The other board members are pretty quiet and seem to sit in the back.

Best to wait and see how this unfolds.....

Just dug into the 2024 Annual report. In the remuneration report the CEO's options look like this:

On 29 July 2022, PolyNovo granted 5 million shares options in five equal tranches to CEO. Details of the five tranches are set out below. The vesting hurdle for the options is linked to CEO’s length of employment and the PolyNovo volume weighted average market price. The vesting hurdles applied to all 5 tranches are as follows and options only vest when both exercise conditions have been satisfied: Details of the vesting hurdle for the five tranches are as follows:

•Tranche 1: – One Million (1,000,000) Options cannot vest or be exercised until after the one (1) year anniversary of the commencement ofemployment and until such time as shares in PolyNovo have been trading 30 continuous days at 50% greater than the exercise price or above; This Tranche of options must vest before the three (3) year anniversary of the CEO’s employment start date otherwise they expire at that date.

•Tranche 2: One Million (1,000,000) Options cannot vest or be exercised until after the two (2) year anniversary of the commencement of employment and until such time as shares in PolyNovo have been trading 30 continuous days at 75% greater than the exercise price or above. This Tranche of options must vest before the four (4) year anniversary of the CEO’s employment start date otherwise they expire at that date.

•Tranche 3: One Million (1,000,000) Options cannot vest or be exercised until after the three (3) year anniversary of the commencement of employment and until such time as shares in PolyNovo have been trading 30 continuous days at 100% greater than the exercise price or above; This Tranche of options must vest before the five (5) year anniversary of the CEO’s employment start date otherwise they expire at that date.

•Tranche 4: One Million (1,000,000) Options cannot vest or be exercised until after the four (4) year anniversary of the commencement of employment and until such time as shares in PolyNovo have been trading 30 continuous days at 150% greater than the exercise price or above. This Tranche of options must vest before the six (6) year anniversary of the CEO’s employment start date otherwise they expire at that date.; and

•Tranche 5: One Million (1,000,000) Options cannot vest or be exercised until after the five (5) year anniversary of the commencement of employment and until such time as shares in PolyNovo have been trading 30 continuous days at 200% greater than the exercise price or above. This Tranche of options must vest before the seven (7) year anniversary of the CEO’s employment start date otherwise they expire at that date.

Sixty percent (60%) of the shares issued on the exercise of options will be restricted shares subject to rule 9 of the Employee Option Plan until the first anniversary of the date of issue of the shares. Shares issued will be in escrow for twelve months and until that time will be unable to be dealt with.

Whether they have vested or not, the options will be cancelled on the date of termination or cessation of employment.

Accumulated share options expense recognised during the year ended 30 June 2023 was $716,338. Details of the options package are included in the Tables A, B, C and D below.

So to meet the vesting conditions, the share price would need to trade above the following thresholds for 30 continuous days:

Tranche 1: $2.46 (50% above $1.64) (by July 2025)

Tranche 2: $2.87 (75% above $1.64) (by July 2026)

Tranche 3: $3.28 (100% above $1.64) 2027

Tranche 4: $4.10 (150% above $1.64) 2028

Tranche 5: $4.92 (200% above $1.64) 2029

So he has to get the SP to sit for 30 continious days above $2.46 before 29 July 2025 before T1 can be exercised? That is going to be tough!

have I got this right?

Also it is interesting compare his 25% annual growth statement with his options. If we think that $2.00 is a fair value for PNV now....then in four years $4.00 is about right. Which aligns with his options. So mabye he is within his 25% annual growth bounds......untill today.

I read this post on HC:

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/dermal-matrix-time-to-graft-of-btm-vs-new-product.8432030/page-31?post_id=77844344

Reproduced below.

My thoughts are:

• Intersting to hear from one of their customers.
• Thinks BTM/MTX is superior product for more use cases than other competitor products.
• They agree that there are lots of future uses on BTM/MTX
• It takes time for the adoption to happen.
• [ @mikebrisy what do you think of this point] He says that he doesn't understand the focus on sales reps. Says that if all the sales reps were gone, the doctors/hospitals already using it, would order more. And he then goes on to say, that it is the Dr to Dr knowledge transfer/reccomendations and journals, are key for growth.
• He doesn't give an explaination of why RoW growth appears to be slowing.
• @mikebrisy could we build a differrent growth model based on patients rather than sales reps? I need to have a think about this.

Here is what he wrote:

It appears that some posters here are still not seeing the bigger picture with Polynovo and it is unfortunate that some posters feel the need to cross promote and down-ramp a company that is steadily growing, improving outcomes and saving lives.

The beauty with PNV and BTM is that it is not a ‘burns-only’ product. Burns will be a tiny fraction of future sales. Any comparison with Avita is pretty much pointless. Avita may well have a strong sales force in some burns centres in the USA. I don’t dispute that, frankly I don’t know, and it doesn’t matter. Having a strong sales force and delivering a profit are two separate issues.

We know that if PNV pulled the entire sales-force in the USA then sales would still continue and it would even organically expand as existing surgeons that use the product will teach the new surgeons and their colleagues on how to use it. I don’t understand the obsession with sales force numbers in some of the posts above. Sales force numbers does not necessarily translate to a profitable product. What you want is a high margin product that sells itself and that surgeons find new indications for on a daily basis and that is exactly what PNV has with BTM.

Adoption in the medical world is typically slow. In fact, it is very slow. Surgeons typically rely on data from journals and on teaching via their colleagues or seniors to adopt a product into their routine use. Once a product is established (as BTM is) the surgeons will teach amongst themselves. Sales forces would then be pivoting to untapped markets (pivoting from plastic surgeons to vascular, general, orthopaedic and trauma surgeons for example).

One of the standouts of the recent announcements which didn’t get as much attention as some of the other headlines was the number of patients that were treated – growing at twice the rate of revenue growth. “It issatisfying to see our patient impact expanding at more than twice the rate ofour revenue growth, to stand at 62,000 plus patients globally since treatingour first patient”.

While some people may see this as a negative (less revenue per patient), you must keep in mind that surgeons are using smaller sizes of BTM/MTX for new indications and that we have entered territories where the product is sold at a cheaper price. Margins are still enormous. 62,000 patients to date (and growing) amounts to an enormous number of surgeons who are using the product and spreading awareness. This is not just in a few burns centres in the USA.

The important thing here is that there is enormous surgeon adoption and for every procedure that is successful, it will build confidence in the surgeons using it, those that are being trained alongside the primary operator, as well as amongst the allied health team (whether it is theatre nurses, occupational therapists, ward nurses, or physiotherapists) which are all exposed to the product.

This will lead to a snowball effect over time where adoption will keep on increasing simply through word of mouth and exposure, and where indications will keep on expanding organically.

Even if the plastic surgery market in the major hospitals in the USA is saturated with BTM for indications such as burns, trauma, and oncological procedures, imagine this effect in countries that aren’t yet entered and then imagine the adoption amongst other surgical specialties that have not yet heard of, or used the product – such as trauma, orthopaedic, vascular, head and neck or general surgeons.

For example, in every small peripheral hospital in Australia or New Zealand (I can only speak to what I know) there are general surgeons collectively performing hundreds of skin cancer operations every week. Most are easy excisions with easy closure. However quite often there is an area where wound closure is a bit of a problem and where cosmetic outcomes are hampered with wound breakdown from excisions that are closed too tight or there are poor cosmetic outcomes because you’re operating on the scalp or nose.

That is just one example where BTM/MTX can solve that issue and give a much improved cosmetic outcome with less risk for wound breakdown. There are hundreds of these procedures where BTM/MTX could be used every week across both countries. Yet most general surgeons that I have talked to in these two countries do not yet know about BTM. One of my few criticisms (voiced previously in a post) is that PNV could perhaps target other surgical subspecialties more aggressively. However I do also understand that are lower hanging fruit elsewhere currently which is where resources are being spent.

The future growth potential is enormous and there is no other product that I have come across in my career that has been this revolutionary. Burns aside – what truly amazed me was how it made free flaps unnecessary.

For those non-medical readers; if you get a flesh eating bug (necrotizing fasciitis – of which the rates are increasing in the world), or you get a large chunk of your leg ripped off in a work-place accident or road traffic accident, then in the past if this defect was too deep and large to simply stitch up. You have no overlying dermis and epidermis so you would often have to get a “free-flap” which is where you cut out a piece of flesh (including skin, dermis, sometimes muscles) from elsewhere in the body (popular places are the anterolateral thigh) and you connect the specific arteries and veins of that ‘free flap’ into arteries and veins where the defect is. To do this you need a team of plastic surgeons who are trained in microsurgery (whereby a big microscope gets wheeled into the operating room). The free flap then needs meticulous attention and care on the wards to make sure that the arteries and veins don’t block off. If they do – it’s back to theatre to fix the issue. Often multiple times. Once the free flap slowly integrates you are then left with a big bulky flap that often requires multiple procedures down the track in the coming months or years to thin it out and make it look more cosmetically appealing. The site where the ‘free flap’ was harvested from is also a large wound which can suffer from issues such as infection or wound breakdown and cosmetic issues.

This entire ordeal is now in a lot of cases replaceable with a simple procedure to apply BTM, followed by a couple of weeks with a VAC (suction device to drain fluid) and then a procedure to skin graft over the top. Super simple.

You have now cut down an enormous surgery cost and decreased patient morbidity with this process whereby it saves thousands of dollars and improves outcomes. Most importantly you no longer need specialist plastic microsurgery for this process.

This means that these patients can be treated in smaller hospitals which don’t have a microscope and don’t need to be transferred to larger tertiary centres, again saving the healthcare system huge costs.

This bring me onto my next point. The outcomes are unbelievably good. I would like to direct you to this video (posted just 5 days ago – almost like they read my mind):

https://vimeo.com/1054654037

In this video you can see how supple the result of BTM is (what I alluded to in an earlier post). No other product comes close to this quality of regenerated dermis (particularly over difficult areas like joints, armpits, and neck regions to name a few).

I really struggle to see how biological products which claim to be graftable within 5 days will have outcomes anywhere close to BTM.

I’ve been to conferences where they have shown comparisons side by side (on the same patient) of BTM vs biological products for example, and the scarring with the biologicals was at times quite shocking and drastically worse than anything with BTM. It is night and day between synthetic BTM and biological “competitive” products – on the same patient!

The quality of the dermis far outcompetes any of the competitors. There are no other competitors that are non-biologics like PNV. This is what analysists fail to understand. They also fail to understand the enormous possible indications for the product, which is fair enough – they aren’t doctors.

It is night and day between a synthetic and a biologic in terms of tissue quality outcomes, let alone all the other advantages of synthetic over biologic, such as low cost to produce, higher margin, better storage, less infection risk and all patients will accept a synthetic product (many patients wont accept animal products, particularly pig products for ethical or cultural reasons). But that has all been discussed previously.

I just wanted to inject a clinical point of view as to why in my opinion, having used the product, I think it is extremely disruptive and has a bright future ahead with many more indications not yet fully explored (diabetic foot, hidradenitis suppurativa, pilonidal sinus excision, anterior abdominal wall defects post laparotomy, oncological surgeries such as skin cancer surgery on the scalp - where defects can be filled with BTM, or surgery on the nose for skin cancer – avoiding rotation flaps and disfiguration)…to name a few that I can think of, the possibilities are endless.

Other surgical sub-specialties are also areas of enormous future growth. This is why I haven’t been too fussed on not yet having advanced other products such as breast or hernia.

The growth ahead for just BTM/MTX is enormous enough and the fruit are still so low hanging that in my opinion it’s best to focus resources into market expansion for a product that has a proven track record of working and is simply best in class by a country mile.

Anything else that gets developed such as synpath, breast, or hernia would be the cherry on the cake.

I often joke to my wife that if I didn’t have a well-paying career in medicine already that I would love to work for PNV. Fantastic product.

Luckily, I can still be a part of the journey as a shareholder.

I’m no analyst but sometimes investing is simple, and with the majority of my career still ahead of me I am happy to accumulate at these prices.

“Invest in what you know” – Peter Lynch.

Hi guys

So with many of us selling out of PNV, it is still a great company with lots of catalysts for growth. And most of us had valued it above $2.20....and it is currently trading at about 1.90 and feels like it is dropping. So this this seems to be creating a buying opportunity.

@Saiton what is your chart telling you? I saw a guy on Hotcopper called Westsurf is predicting about 1.68? What do you think?

I think I am a buyer from about 1.75 (might buy about 1/4 of my desired position)....and then buy another 1/4 at 1.70....then see how it goes for a while.

I'm not sure how to perform analysis on buying back in. What do others do in this scenario?

So @mikebrisy gave some great analysis. And I wanted to do some checking of my own. It backs up everything mike said. But thought it might be useful for some here.

Upon first glance of the 1H FY2025 Trading Result (unaudited), I thought everything looked in order. I thought PNV was continuing to grow at about the expected rates. 

 But when I dug a little more, I noticed that the growth was not quite what it seemed. 

 From the 1H FY2025 Trading Result (unaudited):

 “Rest of World sales of A$12.9m up 28.6% on STLY A$10.0m including strong performances in UK/I, Spain, Germany, Turkey and Hong Kong. First sales were made in Malta, Portugal and Peru.”

 So 28% growth for RoW Sales compared to the Same Time as Last Year, on a small revenue base is quite underwhelming. And was not expected. 28% means $2.9m extra revenue compared to the H1 FY2024. If we assume each product is about (this is a guess $700 per patient), that means about 4,000 more patients. That feels underwhelming. We are talking about RoW sales for a product that has been widely adopted in the USA. 

 Lets compare with the previous year at the same time (1H FY2024 Trading Result (unaudited))

 “Rest of World sales of $A10.0m up 122.2% on STLY of A$4.5m including strong performances in ANZ, UKI, and the Middle East, also growing sales in India, Hong Kong, and Canada.”

 So we have gone from 122% to 28% in terms of RoW growth for the Same Time Last Year on what is really a small base. 

 To show it graphically:

To understand it better, we need to make some assumptions about what the FY2025 FULL will be, so you can see the concerns better:

I explain it here:

- Take the Blue line (USA Sales) – we see USA as a maturing market. Growth is expected to taper off. So approx. $84 million for the FY25 will be a reasonable result. 

-  Take the Orange line (Row Sales) – The RoW sales should be growing massively. Ie new markets with strong adoption in each of those countries. If we double the H1FY25 result we get about $26 million. As you can see, that would be a tapering off of growth. But we should be seeing increased growth….so around $40 million for RoW.

-  The Red, Light Blue and Green lines represent the Total Sales low growth, average growth and expected 'high' growth results. 

As you can see (I hope the above is clear, and please point out to me any mistakes you can see)….RoW is not on track with the previous USA growth. And I would have expected the RoW growth to be much more than the USA growth. 

This is a key concern that management must address at the next results meeting. 

In particular they need to answer the following:

-  Why has growth in RoW not followed a similar trajectory as the USA market? [There may be very good reasons. For instance, some countries may have very strong bureaucratic processes that slows initial adoption. Or a competitor product has a strong sales team and adoption in that country…but we have a strategy to gain traction in the X years. Or maybe the direct sales approach is not working? But we need to know the reason(s) and what is being done about it, and some guidance for future growth (yeah I know…that may be a stretch)]

-  India has been touted as a massive future market for PNV, but why no news in the update? [I think this was not a good look. It casts doubt on PNV in India. If things are taking longer, tell us why. This was the CEO’s (who I do really like) pet project. He needs to give us confidence in his professional judgement. And if things are not going to plan, tell us, and what the fixes are. What are the 25 plus team in India doing? ]

-  What is happening in the rest of the world RoW? [With all the new countries coming online, we would have expected the combined growth rate to be larger than the USA? To address this question, PNV needs to provide an update on progress in each country and any ‘road blocks’ or issues and what is being done to overcome them.]

I think another major issue is the PNV RoW growth rate when compared to PNV’s competitors (as @mikebrisy pointed out). 

Here is a quick 5-minute analysis of the growth rates of PNV’s competitors:

-      AVITA Medical – 29% growth

-      Vericel – 20-22% growth

-      Aroa Biosurgery – expected 17-22% growth on FY24

-      Integra – IDRT – struggled to find (sorry)

PNV’s RoW growth rate of 28.6% means they have fallen back into the same growth rates as thier competitors. 

Some key questions for management regarding PNV competitors:

-  Does PNV do competitor analysis, and if so, where does PNV think it ranks in terms of growth? Put another way, does PNV think it is still growing faster than it's competitors?

-  Many of PNV's competitors have a portfolio of products. This tends to lock in brands with surgeons and hospitals. How is PNV addressing this approach by PNV's competitors?

Looking at PNV’s growth to date with its current products, my modelling says that a fair value is represented by a SP of about $2.20-2.60. Based on this, I sold about 90% of my PNV holdings at $2.20 (it rose to $2.30 over the subsequent weeks and then dropped below $2.00). I have seen PNV bashed down below $1.00 so I got a bit nervous.

I still like PNV, it’s products and its management. But the above questions need addressing before I buy back in. 

Some triggers for me to buy back in:

-  It drops below $1.60

-  RoW growth is above 40% or an explanation why it has dropped and what they are going to do about it.

-  Significant progress on India (this is not just about the numbers, but it shows that the CEO and leadership team can make the right calls for the business). 

-  New products. We have a great sales team……let them sell other products. We need news on these new products. What are the issues holding them up?

So as you can see....@mikebrisy was spot on. But i'm glad i did the research to back it up. I had fallen away from the numbers, and it was a great chance to reaquaint myself.

Cheers

https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=PNV

Interesting shorts are up quite a bit. Always worries me what they know that we do not.....(althought I have sold 90% of my holding IRL and still have some in SM).

My thoughts are:

• Maybe they see what we have seen (in terms of growth falling back)....and think there could be a sell off? Although most here think $2.20-2.60 is pretty fair value.
• Maybe one of their products in development has tanked?
• BARDA approval going to take longer?

OR

Maybe they are locking in their profits by taking both their long and new short position. Is that legal?

What do people think?

I thought we could work up a bunch of questions we would like to ask management/David Williams. Or if the timing works, even Andrew could use the questions with an inverview with DW.

So i'll kick off some potential questions. And as a group, lets amend/add/delete questions (and maybe even guess the answers).

1 - Does PNV do competititor analysis, and if so, where does PNV think it ranks in terms of growth? Put another way, does PNV think it is still growing faster than it's competitors?

2 - Many of PNV's competitors have a portfolio of products. This tends to lock in brands with surgeons and hospitals. How is PNV addressing this approach by PNV's competitors?

3 - Why have we not yet been informed of an substaintial sales in India? Can PNV provide some analysis of potential sales in India? Put another way, can you provide the analysis for the justification for going into the Indian market.

4 - It appears that RoW sales is not showing the same growth trajectory that the USA displayed over the past 4 years. Does PNV have an explaination why this is the case? Are there any reasons for a different adoption by RoW countries?

I'll add more as we go. And from time to time, I'll put them all in one post to make it easier.

https://app.sharelinktechnologies.com/announcement/asx/fef43a16314af9555ea08fe39176d9bb

Sneaky first half trading results near close on Friday. I missed it.

Looks pretty good to me. @mikebrisy this would be more in line with your growth assumptions?

https://app.sharelinktechnologies.com/announcement/asx/0b6a7347031c2cf03a751ecda4d78094

What do we make of this?

"Share Price at date of transaction: $2.03 per share. Total consideration received: NIL – Gifted as a wedding present to a close doctor friend at Vanderbilt Hospital in Nashville US."

Seems a little odd?

Saw some interesting posts on other forums regarding PNV

So revenue per patient is down....which mainly reflects the size of the product being used is smaller. But Patient numbers are going up.

I then saw this post that discusses future revenues/products for PNV:

"China, Japan and India not accounted for yet. Orthopaedics not yet covered as well as plastics. Every tendon and nerve repair will be wrapped in MTX in the future. The same with poor blood supplied fractures in the frail plus elderly. MTX is a polyfiller which will be used in trauma in the near future. The joy is that it’s affordable for poorer countries and storage is less complicated than others. Swami said that he was aiming for one million patients per annum, that’s one billion in earnings IMHO. Happy to plateau at that."

So I think we have discussed most of these before. But I guess the main issue (as we also previously discussed) was that these revenues are about 5-10 years away (at least).

I think you are right @mikebrisy . Might be time to lighten some of my PNV holdings next time it goes above $2.50. And then buy back in as the new products start to roll out in a few years time?

My only concerns are that maybe a Johnson and Johnson puts in a bid to buy us out. Our current Market Cap is about $1.5 billion at a SP of about $2.10. J&J would think nothing of paying $3 billion...which would equate to about a SP of $4. And the next 1-2 years is the perfect time for a J&J type buisness to strike. We have a proven product with cash flow...and a bunch of new products due in the next 5-10 years. @mikebrisy you have worked extensively in this sector and M&A....what are yout thoughts?

And letter sent to DW

I hope we get a little free publicity from this. Maybe our own 30 min show promoting all the good work PNV has done all over the world.

Some super quick notes (with spelling mistakes) from the Bell Potter Conference where DW was interviewed:

• Interviewer commented SP is down...and if DW has any concerns etc. DW made the point that when PNV has board meetings, they look at the SP and the guidance that is out there....and if there is a large discrepancy with their internal budgets....they would consider making comment to the market. So he says "sometimes silence is confirming"....or some type of words like that.
• BARDA....data given to FDA....maybe hear something this year....or early next year. He said will only really help some surgeons that wait for the the full tick from the FDA which would be a small percentage. But also help other juridtictions (like Israel) that rely on the FDA outcomes to guide their regulatory decisions.
• Made the comment that lots of people internal to PNV believe MTX will be bigger than BTM.
• The interviewer discounted acquistions in the next 12-18 months....but DW said no...there could be some...but not in the very near term. Interesting that DW did the full correction....made me feel there is def something in the pipeline....
• Charity donations is def turning into customers. At the Commonwealth Heads of State meeting, DW said some Aust/Commonwealth Agency....wants PNV product in Africa.
• Last comments were on growth into Japan, China, Indonesia, Mongolia (???) and Africa. And broaden the base into new products. Mentioned podiary in the USA.
• Was dissappointed he got no comments for his Green Jacket. The green jacket was a BUY signal for me,

Hey sorry for creating a new straw...but I was having trouble replying to the Bear Case straw???

So here goes...third time writing:

So I am concerned about State Street coming in......only in the short term tho...long term...no issues.

But these shorters love to play with companies on the edge of the ASX200. Regal Fund does this regularly.....I hate these guys.

I just had a look. PNV is 182 out of 200 on the ASX200. We have a MC of about $1.8 billion. Lowest MC is about $1.6 billion. And given PNV's history of volatility.....we might be a prime target for these manipulators (note the techniques they use to force the SP down is illegal). If they are successful in booting PNV from ASX200....then all the ETFs will be forced to offload....creating selling/downward pressure....and this is where they make their real money.

NB: I hate these games. Stock markets were designed to give companies a chance to raise capital and do productive things. Now the finance world just gnaws at it....daily. We could stop these games with a 'per transaction tax'. For retail investors....it wouild cost about 50 cents a trade. But for all those funds....that use micro trades to push SP up/down.......it would make them not viable. And the money raised could go to fund ASIC to allow them to regulate better.

@mikebrisy

Your analysis of what you have not included in you PNV 10 year DCF Model....has got me thinking.

If you were say Johnson & Johnson (and I know if a former life you have experience in this).....and sizing up PNV for a takeover offer.....how would you model that?

My take would be:

• Look at the exisiting business (lets say valued at $2.60 a share)
• add growth of about 20% a year for another 5 years...and then taper off for antoher 5 years. (Not sure what equates to additional SP....at a guess lets say another $2.00
• Value the new products coming.....say another $1.00 (total guess. We could look at the timing...and ball park TAM/Revenue and get it more precise).

So that would make a take over offer price of about $5-6 per share (or about 3.5-4 billion offer based on 690 million shares).

For someone like J&J....this is bread a butter takeovers/acquistion. And they will take a 10-20 year view....so all those products in R&D....they will actually get higher returns.

I wonder if there have been any discussions?

Link to PNV FY24 Annual Report

As expected. Profit.

Some quick questions from me:

• PolyNovo sells two primary products...the NovoSorb BTM (A dermal scaffold used for the regeneration of the dermis in cases of extensive surgery, trauma, or burns) and the NovoSorb MTX (A more advanced product introduced for treating full-thickness wounds, offering specific enhancements over BTM.) To date most of the sales have been for BTM. How do people see the MTX sales progressing? My quick look said that full thickness burns is the leader (by revenue) of the burns market. So does this mean we can factor in much more sales/revenue now that MTX sales have begun? ie the amount of reveneue per sales person goes up?
• I was not aware that there were lots of furter applications for FDA 510(k) clearances expected in FY25…allowing expansion of the Novosorb MTX and BTX. Swami said that they have a new MTX for soft tissue. Again, does this mean we can add even more revenue per sales person in our models?
• Interesting that Swami only achieved 90% of his Short Term Incentive. But he took half in cash and put half into equity. I assume this is his choice? If so....great to see. I notice that none of the other management made this choice. They took the cash. But then when I read section 7.4 Movements in shares.....Swami has none? Is this right? I'm confused with this part of the report.

Hi @Saiton

Some of the Hotcopper Chart guys are saying we are in for a decent bull run.

Some are saying about $2.68 is the top before some consolidation. Then another run up to about $3.18 should be possible.

What are you seeing on your technical analysis?

Cheers

From one of the posters called Asxcharts

[Warning - I woke up angry this morning]

I'm always amazed with the PNV SP volatility. Surely the PNV SP is being manipulated?

Watch this video of Jim Cramer (before he set up his own YouTube chanel), discussing how he a manipulates the market.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIfixbq_u0Q

Why can't ASIC/ASX use their softaware to monitor for these tricks?

OR - why doesn't the Govt put a $0.50 tax on each trade. Means nothing to retail investors (who vote), and for institutions who play long it would be fine. But will stop these alogrythims trading a few shares at a time to push the SP up or down as they like.

Captial markets were created to give businesses access to money to develop their busiensses. But this whole finance industry has spawned methods of ripping money out of the market. I don't buy any of their arguements about liquidity etc. Companies like Renaissance Capital have bascially stolen money from the markets through their use of AI and data sets. What is the value to the captial markets have they provided?

Ok rant over....for now.

PS...i have been in talks with a very large law firm about doing a class action against ASIC, ASX and some of the hedge funds we think are manipulating the SP of companies on the ASX. If anyone is interested, reach out to me. But what we need is someone in a university etc. that is a finance professor or similar. If you know of someone...please reach out to me.

WIth the currently Share Price (SP) of PNV moving upwards, I'm trying to work out what to do with PNV.

Given the reduction in PNV short position since Dec 2024....I think the key questions are:

• Do we think the short position will continue to be reduced?
• To what level?
• How long will that take?
• What other buying momentum might happen along the way?
• What will happen after the funds stop reducing their short position?
• What are the factors that might push the SP down at this point?
• What are the factors that might hold or push up the SP at this point.

The following is a bit of a ramble to answer the above questions:

The short position has reduced from about 4.5% (SP $1.50 Mid Dec 2023 approx) to 3.5% (Current SP $2.40 Mid Mar 2024 approx). Unlikely to see the short position go down past 2.5%. (Keen if someone has a view on this). But not all the SP movement upwards since Dec 2023 is due to the shorts buying on the market and reducing their position. We have had a bunch of great news from PNV.

However, if the short position is to drop back to about 2.5% than means about 7 million shares to be bought back. Daily PNV volumes sit at about an average of 1.5 million shares traded a day. So assuming the shorts buy back about 200,000 shares a day....that is 35 trading days to reduce their position....So in about mid May the SP could be at about $3:00 - 3.50? Do we think that volume of trades per day is likley to provide much upward momentum? Maybe just a little? It is more likely that people are starting to recognise PNV as a great investment?

I have had a look at what happened around the last big short squeeze during the last half of 2020. And I think that set of events and where PNV is now compared to then....means it is not that relevant. PNV had loads of head winds with COVID, ASX200 games being played, change of CEO etc. And now PNV turns a profit, growing massively etc. And the other smaller squeeze in 2022....that to me was the ASX200 games being played and the market didn't have consistent data on revenue. So again very different to now.

When the shorts stop buying back...will that have an effect on SP? Well it will cease that small tailwind effect.

In terms of future SP catalysts (positive and negative). I think once more news/orders from India appear that will be a positive. $10m month revenue figure will be a positive. Potential negatives could be cost blow out on the new production facility (but we would not likley hear about that for at least 9-12 months).

Conclusion:

When i started to write this straw....I was convinced we were in a small short squeeze. But now i don't think so...just some tail wind being added to the general positive momentum upwards for the SP.

BUT - As many of us have modelled, a valuation of about $2.50 seems fair. And at what point do we start to see PNV as overvalued and start to sell/trim our PNV positions?

John Parkinson

Note: I have also posted this on HotCopper to see what the chartists and others think...there are some HC members with great access to professional trading screens etc. But so far I have not got any great insights...

I just had a look at the current PNV short position.

Since Dec 2023 it has dropped from about 4.5% to 3.5%.

I would imagine it will fall back to about 2.5% in the next few weeks.

So that means about 7 million shares to be bought back.

Who are PolyNovo?

• Melbourne based medical product company.
• Produce a synthetic “lattice” product for burns/skin repair.
• Works extremely well and Doctors are loving the product and finding more and more uses. 
• PNV R&D team working and validating more and more uses. 
• High margin product. This is obviously a high guarded secret. But in my research, I have heard people throw out 90% etc. I don’t know and can’t confirm, but I do know that compared to it’s competitors who use a different type of product (Integra - pig skin), the margins are best in the field. 

Management:

• Mr. Swami Raote – Current CEO – Ex senior exec in Johnson and Johnson. He is Indian and knows the Indian market well. India has the highest burn rates in the world. 
• Mr. David Williams – Current Chairman - Holds a large portion of PNV shares, worked in mergers/acquisitions for years, also tells the company story well and keeps the market well informed. Loves a red wine I hear and the Flower Drum in Melbourne. 

Growth/Regions:

• PNV did a capital raise at $1.90 in late Dec 2022, to fund growth through expanding production, setting up new teams, and expanding existing teams globally.
• Currently USA is cash flow positive and growing (said by David Williams in last Revenue discussion).
• India has just been established in early 2023….highest burn rates in the world…and low cost for employees/sales staff. Yet to see sales data for this move. 
• Europe has many contracts in place with existing distributors. These are being monitored for performance. My view is they are underperforming. And I think when more revenue is being made in 2024….a European PNV team will be established. 
• Australia/NZ has much of the head office/manufacturing/R&D team. But the Sales Staff are also increasing and gaining traction/revenue.
• On Wednesday 23 August 2023 (2pm), PNV will be doing an announcement of revenue. It is expected to be a record month/year. I hope they provide some more details on the revenue splits between regions etc. 

Valuation:

• To predict sales revenue, I believe the number of Sales Staffs should provide a pretty good coloration with revenue. I also have heard on some of the meetings, the Macquarie Bank analyst keep pushing management to divulge sales staff information. 
• David Williams (chairman) has previously said it takes about 6-12 months for a new sales staff member to start paying for themselves with sales. So there tends to be a lag between sales staff being appointed and revenue uplift. I have tried to simplify by just using the previous year’s staffing levels to determine a Revenue per Sales Staff.
• For 2023 PNV should generate about $100m in revenue ( I will update this post 23 August 2023). And in 2022 they had 152 staff globally (Page 6 of 2022 Annual Report). 
• I think approx. 80 of them are Sales Staff. 
• I think approx. 26 are management/support staff
• I think approx. 5 are R&D
• 5 are Directors
• I think approx. 10 are factory workers
• The rest are estimates of equivalent staff in their distributors (Europe etc)
• So I calculate that each Sales Staff generates about $1.2m in sales. However, on closer inspection, I understand that a large chunk of those sales staff came on in early 2023. So they may have generated more revenue earlier. I would thus guesstimate that each Sales Staff would generate approx. $900k per year. (they would cost PNV about $200k a year, so they would net PNV about $700k per year.)
• I have then created a spreadsheet with each country/region and likely Sales staff numbers for the next few years and tried to map out the expansion and thus future revenue. 

• So if we use the net revenue assumption of $700k per sales staff per year, and multiply by the previous year Sale Staff numbers we get the following revenue estimate:
• I think that maybe this model/assumptions are generating net revenues a little too high and I will re cut the model once new data is available post 23 August 2023. But for this straw…lets keep going. 
• I then looked forward 10 years and inserted a slowdown in the Sales Staff recruitment over another 6 years. So that we have a 10 year view. 
• Then I did an NPV at 5 and 10% discount rate (seems this is about right for a medical device company). 

• So the NPV for 10 years of revenue ranges between $1.3 – 1.8 billion. If that is considered the Market Cap…that would mean a SP of $2.00-2.60. Current SP is about $1.55. 
• I will continue to update my staffing/revenue model as new information is presented. Possible other sources of info could be job adverts in different regions etc. 

Growth Opportunities:

• PNV’s largest competitor is Integra. They use animal skin for skin transplants. They were doing approx. $1.5b in revenue in 2022. However, around June 2023, they had to recall all their products because the FDA (US regulator) found unacceptable levels of bacteria in their products. It will be at least 6 months before they can begin to produce new products and there is also a question mark if they can actually produce their product without this bacteria. This is a massive opportunity for PNV. It is unlikely the last revenue announcement (which was a record of $7m for a month), could have any sale attributable to the demise of Integra. But the upcoming revenue announcement tomorrow 23 August 2023, should have some revenue attributable to the Integra demise. I also think, that once Doctors use the BTM product from PNV, they are not likely to go back to Integra. 
• PNV are finding more and more uses for their product. So I think any money spent on their R&D is valuable. And the Sales Staff will then earn more per person because they have more products to sell on each visit to each hospital. 
• I also think that in 5 years, a large chunk of the profit that was going into growth (ie more Sales Staff), can be invested into complementary acquisitions. PNV will have a sales force with relationships, and can easily add other complimentary products. And that revenue can generate further growth. Akin to CSL. 

Takeover:

• There has always been talk of a Johnson and Johnson type company buying PNV. 
• I think this is a distinct possibility. 
• I think a J&J would value the new products that will come from the PNV R&D area. 
• Also the CEO is ex J&J and I’m sure that there would have been discussions. Or will be soon. 
• People throw prices out there…but I think the board would be unlikely to recommend selling for anything less than a SP of $3-4. 

SP history:

• PNV has had a roller coaster SP over the last few years. 
• There have been a number of events/explanations for this:
• Loss of CEO
• Covid massively stopping sales and growth.
• PNV sitting just in and out of the ASX200 meaning lots of funds buying or selling.
• Shorters taking advantage of the above.
• Recently, PNV has experienced shorting from about $2.70 down to $1.30. But with the latest revenue announcement (record $7m month) has sat around $1.50. 
• ]If the next announcement is positive regarding revenue, then I expect a jump in SP. Given the shorters having been working this stock hard, and if they still think it may fall out of the ASX200…then they may try to hold the SP down. 
• But in the longer term, with revenue continuing to rise, the shorters will reduce their positions and the SP should become steady. 

Conclusion:

• I think PNV will continue to achieve it’s growth strategy and see revenue continue to grow globally for it’s existing products. 
• I think PNV will continue to add new products which will expand it’s revenue.
• I think PNV is currently undervalue at $1.50 (22 August 2023) and should move up to about $2.20 by the early 2024.