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Last edited 2 weeks ago
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#Financials
stale
Added 8 months ago

ACE released their results confirming a beat on their IPO forecast as announced previously for FY23

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Nice to see that no one sold off the results for a change.

One point I need to fact check is whether the high barrier of entry for their market is valid.

[held]

#Bear Case
stale
Added 9 months ago

Found the answer to the share price weakness.

Hidden somewhere near the back of the prospectus and it was quite hard to find.

I admit I missed this when I went through the doc a month ago.

Below gives an insight into how funds were raised before the IPO and prices the seed investors paid before the IPO that would not be on this list.

On average seed investors must have have paid around $2.00 per share pre split before the IPO when Acusensus was still private.

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Also the aggregate summary value of all these options was not on the FRONT of the prospectus which helps the investor find out if the IPO is good value or not. However I'm not sure if it is compulsory to put that value in but all the ones I've seen have done that.

Taking a step back, I think most of the selling below $3 happened in February. So maybe it is over?

At least the subs in the above haven't sold ... yet. Only the employees, Bell potter and others not listed above.

On that note, if business momentum is maintained then maybe the selling will stop.

[held]

#Financials
stale
Added 9 months ago

Not a bad quarter for a technology company that is capped around 80m.

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Revenue edging off but at least not volatile

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Still struggling to find out why seed investors still want out and what they want to buy instead of Acusensus

Net operating cashflow too and just cashflow positive.so I doubt cash is needed.

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Thought I'd go against the flow and take a nibble before the split last week

[held]

#Risks
stale
Last edited 10 months ago

Talking about IPOs again and this is one where retail were the losers.

IPO prospectus

There are a few red flags I could see in the prospectus. One obvious one is Pre IPO equity vastly outnumber the equity available to retail.

The few positives about the company is the business (traffic safety camera monitoring), upward revised guidance and low market cap.

With more shares coming out of escrow in the next few months, I think it can head lower even with the revised guidance and business momentum.

Seems like the Pre-IPO holders aren't showing much conviction in the business as in February 23 the share price dived to $3 on release of the HY23 results. I'm assuming it was the Pre IPO holders since shares were removed from escrow after the release of the HY results.

There is also an upcoming stock split (5 for 1) in the next month.